IEA Sees Almost 4,800 GW of Renewables Added by 2031, 57% More Than the Last Six Years
The International Energy Agency sees almost 4,800 GW of renewable capacity added worldwide over its six-year forecast, 57% more than the previous six years, driven mainly by energy security.
The agency says the motive has changed: governments are now building renewables mainly to cut their exposure to imported fuels and volatile prices. For the first time, emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to add as much capacity as advanced economies over the period.
Energy security overtakes climate policy as the main driver
The agency frames the forecast around disruptions to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz stemming from the Middle East conflict, which it says have driven up oil and gas prices and market volatility. Executive Director Fatih Birol said that “today, it’s mainly energy security that is driving renewables’ expansion”.
Renewables already supply a third of global electricity, he said, and will be getting closer to half within five years. The report’s electricity chapter puts the share at 43% by 2031, up from 33% last year. Its executive summary gives a higher figure, almost 45%.
The report also counts the security gain already banked. Global fossil fuel demand would have been an estimated 8% higher last year without the growth of renewables since 2010, the report says, an amount equal to India’s total energy consumption.
Renewables have also displaced gas use equal to 11% of global demand. Biofuels and other renewables have displaced 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, comparable to Canada’s total oil demand.
The path is not smooth. Global capacity additions are forecast to fall 11% this year, ending 21 consecutive years of record annual expansion, though they would still be the second highest ever.
The dip comes mainly from China, where solar PV additions fell almost 55% on the year in the first nine months after the switch from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions. Additions recover gradually after this year and average almost 800 GW a year over the full period.
Solar PV takes three quarters as China’s share eases
Solar PV drives the expansion. Utility-scale plants are forecast to add 2,075 GW and distributed systems a further 1,530 GW. Together that is 3,605 GW, three quarters of the total.
Distributed systems, from homes and businesses to off-grid installations, make up 42% of the solar growth. Onshore wind follows: total installed capacity rises by over 70% to 2,040 GW by the end of the period.
Renewable capacity growth, 2026 to 2031 (in GW)
| Segment | Growth |
|---|---|
| Utility-scale solar PV | 2,075 |
| Distributed solar PV | 1,530 |
| Solar PV, total | 3,605 |
| All renewables | Over 4,770 |
Main case of the Renewables 2026 report; solar PV capacity is in direct current, and the solar total is the sum of the two segments.
China remains the largest contributor, but its share of global growth eases to an average of 53% over the period. It was over 60% in 2025. That leaves 47% of the growth to the rest of the world.
The agency cut its China forecast by 5%, or almost 116 GW, after the tariff reform. Its revisions to last year’s report compare 2026 to 2030 only, because that forecast ended in 2030. Even so, its main case still has China exceeding the capacity and generation targets of its 15th Five-Year Plan.
India becomes the second-largest growth market, with its total renewable capacity set to more than double by 2031. Its additions over the period are expected to be 2.6 times those of the previous six years, lifting its share of global growth to nearly 8.5%.
Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa together almost triple their additions compared with the previous six years. Emerging economies outside China grew at half the pace of advanced economies over those six years. The agency has raised its forecast for emerging and developing economies by almost 20% from a year ago.
On that 2026 to 2030 basis, the global forecast is up only 2%, or 75 GW, on last year’s report. The China cut is offset elsewhere, with the United States revised up by almost 40% and sub-Saharan Africa by 54%.
Renewable shares in the agency’s forecast (in %)
| Measure | 2025 | 2031 |
|---|---|---|
| Global power generation | 33 | 43 |
| Transport energy demand | 4 | 6 |
| Heat demand, modern renewables | 15 | 19 |
| MENA power generation | 6 | 15 |
Main case; the global power figure for 2031 is the electricity chapter’s (the executive summary gives almost 45%); the transport row is the renewable share of global transport energy demand, and the heat row the share of global heating demand met by modern renewables.
Wind and solar PV together more than double their output, to over 28% of global generation. Solar PV overtakes hydropower in 2029 as the world’s largest renewable source.
Saudi Arabia leads a doubling of MENA renewable capacity
Renewable capacity in the Middle East and North Africa is forecast to more than double, to almost 200 GW by 2031. Utility-scale solar PV provides almost 80% of the region’s 122 GW of additions.
By the end of the period solar makes up 75% of the region’s renewable capacity, the highest share of any region, by the agency’s account. Rapid economic and population growth is a major driver, with extra power demand from cooling, desalination, data centres and low-emissions aluminium, steel and fertiliser production.
Saudi Arabia supplies half of the regional increase, at 60 GW. That averages 10 GW a year. The kingdom added a record 9 GW last year, by the agency’s count, taking its renewable capacity past 14 GW.
For the kingdom the motive is exports. Its targets support the Liquid Displacement Programme, which aims to make 1 million barrels a day of oil available for export by cutting domestic consumption.
Bilateral contracts sponsored by the Public Investment Fund (PIF) cover 70% of the kingdom’s 130 GW target, with competitive procurement providing the rest. Hydrocarbon producers that can fuel their power from domestic supplies account for an estimated 67% of the region’s growth, the agency said.
Middle East and North Africa in the forecast (in GW)
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Additions, 2026 to 2031 | 122 |
| of which Saudi Arabia | 60 |
| Capacity 2031, main case | Almost 200 |
| Capacity 2031, accelerated | Nearly 233 |
| Saudi capacity, end of 2025 | Over 14 |
| Saudi target for 2030 | 130 |
Main and accelerated cases of the agency’s regional forecast; the 2030 figure is the kingdom’s target as the report cites it, 70% of it covered by PIF-sponsored bilateral contracts.
Countries that rely on fuel imports for power make up an estimated third of the growth, by the agency’s figures. Egypt has the largest upward revision in the region, which the agency links to accelerated plans after gas import costs rose.
The government reported in March that the monthly gas import bill had nearly tripled to $1.65 billion from $560 million, the report notes. Egypt has also brought its 45% renewable electricity target forward to 2028.
Our earlier page set out that step, and the higher 50% goal for 2030, as shares of the energy mix from new and renewable sources. Egypt has resumed competitive wind and solar auctions after a ten-year pause, and it also leads the region’s move to bilateral contracting.
In The Edge’s reading, the region’s producers and importers are building the same solar plants for opposite reasons: Saudi Arabia to free more oil for export, Egypt to shrink its gas import bill.
The UAE’s forecast is revised up on plans to expand the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park to more than 7 GW from 5 GW. The report also cites the clean energy goal of 35% by 2031, which our page earlier this month set out.
The UAE and Oman have signed their first bilateral contracts for round-the-clock renewable power. In Oman, corporate procurement is emerging to supply renewable electricity to the oil and gas sector.
The regional forecast is broadly unchanged from last year. Stronger corporate demand, project expansions and higher targets offset slower renewable hydrogen development and the near-term supply chain and cost uncertainty linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Combined Chinese solar module imports by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Jordan, Iran and Lebanon fell 61% on the year in the first three quarters. The forecast was revised down for Saudi Arabia, where projects are progressing more slowly, though the agency does not expect the uncertainty to weaken long-term ambitions or pipelines.
Oman’s forecast was also scaled back from last year, mainly on weaker prospects for renewable hydrogen. Two projects awarded in earlier hydrogen rounds were cancelled amid difficulties securing offtakers, the agency said.
If regulatory, grid and financing barriers are addressed, the region could reach nearly 233 GW by 2031 in the accelerated case.
Rooftops, transport and new factories widen the base
Consumers are a growing part of the story. Additional rooftop solar has improved electricity access and services for at least 70 million households since 2022, on the agency’s estimate from module trade data.
Off-grid solar capacity growth is set to rise 2.5 times, to an estimated 80 GW by the end of the period on the report’s figures, led by Pakistan, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia.
Renewable energy use in transport is forecast to rise 60%, lifting its share of transport energy demand to 6%. Renewable electricity for electric vehicles provides 45% of the increase, and liquid biofuels are the second-largest contributor.
The agency lifted its forecast for liquid biofuel production growth by 40% from last year’s report on higher oil prices and energy security concerns. Countries, especially in Southeast Asia and Latin America, are accelerating biofuel mandates to cut reliance on imported fuel. In Southeast Asia, biofuel consumption is set to grow 11% this year, against 7% globally.
On supply, India’s share of global solar PV module manufacturing is expected to almost double to 17% over the next five years. By 2031 it is expected to be the only country besides China able to make every major component of the solar supply chain at scale.
China’s makers are under strain. Over 90% of major Chinese solar PV manufacturers have reported losses this year. More than 70 companies have filed for bankruptcy since 2024.
The agency says the highest priority is for countries to keep grid investment in step with renewable growth. Advanced-stage renewable and storage projects waiting for a grid connection rose 60% in a year, to 3,000 GW. That is four times the wind and solar capacity connected last year.
Technical curtailment of wind and solar output in key markets could rise from almost 200 TWh last year to more than 800 TWh by the end of the period.
The main case still falls short of the COP28 goal of tripling global capacity by 2030. Faster auctions, grids, storage and permitting reforms could let the world reach it in 2031 in the accelerated case, the agency said.
Method: Figures are from the International Energy Agency’s Renewables 2026 report and its press release, both of 6 November 2026, drawing on the executive summary, the renewable electricity and transport chapters and the Middle East and North Africa regional forecast; shares, sums and comparisons not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.
Sources: International Energy Agency, The Edge.
