Italy’s Inflation Jumps to 5.4%, German Import Prices Rise 10.4%
Italy’s annual inflation jumped to 5.4% in October from 4.2%, a sharper acceleration than the October flash readings for France and Spain showed, as energy prices surged.
For households and for the European Central Bank, the October readings show the energy shock reaching consumers at very different speeds: Italy’s regulated energy prices rose 59.5% on the year, while Spain’s inflation rate did not move. In The Edge’s reading, German trade data point to where the next wave of pressure sits: prices of imported intermediate goods rose 11.1%, against 0.2% for imported consumer goods, so much of that cost has not yet passed into consumer goods.
Further up the supply chain, German import prices rose 10.4% in September, the most since November 2022. Professional forecasters surveyed by the ECB now expect euro area inflation to average 3.0% in 2026.
Energy lifts Italian inflation to 5.4%
Italy’s national consumer price index rose 0.9% in October from September, Istat’s preliminary estimate showed. On the harmonised measure used for euro area comparisons, inflation reached 5.6% from 4.2%.
Regulated energy prices rose 59.5% on the year, up from 25.8% in September. They climbed 18.8% in October alone.
Non-regulated energy accelerated to 29.4% from 22.5%. Unprocessed food quickened to 7.5% and transport services to 3.1%.
Goods prices rose 7.5% on the year, from 5.4%. Services rose 2.9%, so goods inflation now runs 4.6 points above services.
Not everything rose. Prices of recreation services, including repair and personal care, fell 0.9% on the month.
France accelerates while Spain stands still
French consumer prices should rise 3.4% on the year in October, after 3.1% in September, according to INSEE’s provisional estimate. On the harmonised measure the provisional rate is 3.8%, from 3.4%.
French energy prices were provisionally 24.1% higher than a year earlier. It was the fourth consecutive month of acceleration, driven by gas and petroleum products.
The swing is large. In October 2025 French energy prices were 5.6% lower on the year.
Services inflation rose to 2.7% from 2.4%, lifted by accommodation and transport. Food inflation eased to 1.2%, and manufactured goods prices fell 0.2% on the year.
Spain’s flash consumer price index rose 4.9% on the year in October, the same rate as in September, INE said. Core inflation, which excludes unprocessed food and energy, stood at 3.1%.
The statistics office pointed to fuels and lubricants for private vehicles, whose prices fell more sharply than in October 2025, as the main downward influence. Gas, liquid fuels and package holidays pushed the other way.
On the harmonised measure Spain’s rate eased one tenth to 4.9%. Italy has now overtaken Spain on that measure, after Spain’s 5.0% led Italy’s 4.2% in September.
October flash inflation (annual, in %)
| Measure | Sep | Oct |
|---|---|---|
| Italy, NIC | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| Italy, HICP | 4.2 | 5.6 |
| Spain, CPI | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Spain, HICP | 5.0 | 4.9 |
| France, CPI | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| France, HICP | 3.4 | 3.8 |
October figures are provisional estimates published on 30 October 2026. NIC is Italy’s national consumer price index; HICP is the harmonised index. September rates as printed in the October releases; Spain’s September HICP is Eurostat’s final figure of 16 October 2026.
German import prices rise at the fastest pace since 2022
German import prices were 10.4% higher in September than a year earlier, Destatis said, up from 6.8% in July. The August rate of 8.3% was set out in our earlier report.
Prices rose 2.1% in September alone. Imported energy cost 61.8% more than a year earlier and 14.5% more than in August.
Within energy, electricity import prices nearly doubled, up 96.2%. Mineral oil products rose 81.3%, and crude oil 59.3%.
The statistics office linked the energy increase to the war in the Middle East. Crude oil alone was 18.5% dearer than in August.
The pressure is not only energy. Excluding energy, import prices rose 5.5% on the year. Intermediate goods cost 11.1% more, with copper and copper products up 37.9%.
Capital goods imports cost 4.5% more. Agricultural imports were 0.9% cheaper, helped by lower prices for live pigs, cocoa and coffee.
Export prices rose 5.3%, the most since February 2023. Import prices are therefore rising almost twice as fast as export prices.
German import prices, September 2026 (in %)
| Category | Annual | Monthly |
|---|---|---|
| All imports | 10.4 | 2.1 |
| Energy | 61.8 | 14.5 |
| Intermediate goods | 11.1 | 0.5 |
| Capital goods | 4.5 | 0.6 |
| Consumer goods | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Agricultural goods | -0.9 | 0.6 |
| Excluding energy | 5.5 | 0.5 |
Annual is the change on September 2025; monthly is the change on August 2026. The index uses contract prices and excludes taxes and customs duties.
German consumer price inflation stood at 3.3% in September, as set out on 13 October.
Forecasters raise their 2026 inflation call to 3.0%
Respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters raised their euro area inflation expectation for 2026 by 0.3 points to 3.0%. For 2027 they added 0.4 points, to 2.6%.
Expectations for 2028 and the longer term stayed at 2.0%. An estimated 68% of respondents expect long-run inflation of exactly 2.0%, the survey report said. The share was an estimated 65% in the previous round, by the same account.
Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is expected at 2.4% in 2026, unchanged. The 2027 core forecast rose 0.2 points to 2.5%.
The report puts the indirect effects of the energy shock at an estimated 0.25 points of inflation in 2026 and 0.3 points in 2027. These effects are expected mainly in non-energy industrial goods, food and transport services.
Second-round effects, through wages, profits and longer-term inflation expectations, are seen as limited, at an estimated 0.1 points in 2027 by the report’s account. A large majority of panellists now expects the conflict to last 10 to 12 months from its outbreak in late February 2026. In the previous round they expected 1 to 3 months.
Wage growth is expected at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. On policy, 48% of respondents expect a deposit facility rate of 2.50% in the fourth quarter. Another 43% expect 2.75%.
The 3.0% call for 2026 is an annual average. Eurostat’s final September figures put euro area inflation at 3.8%, a reading set out in our earlier report. Euro area energy prices were 18.9% higher on the year.
The survey drew 52 responses in early October. Its results do not represent the views of the central bank’s decision-making bodies or staff. Its 2026 headline expectation matches the September staff projection, and its 2027 figure is a tenth higher.
Survey of Professional Forecasters, Q4 2026 (in %)
| Horizon | HICP | Core | Wages |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| 2027 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.1 |
| 2028 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| 2031 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
Annual average changes for the euro area; 2031 is the longer-term horizon. Core is HICP excluding energy and food; wages are compensation per employee.
What to watch:
30 October 2026: Germany’s provisional October consumer prices.
4 November 2026: the euro area flash inflation estimate for October.
13 November 2026: INSEE’s final October consumer prices for France.
18 December 2026: the next Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections.
Method: figures are from the official releases named in the text, dated 30 October 2026 unless stated; differences, multiples and comparisons not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.
Sources: Istat, INE, INSEE, Destatis, European Central Bank, Eurostat, The Edge.
