Jordan Reaches IMF Staff-Level Deal on Two Reviews That Would Release an Estimated $294m
IMF staff and Jordan reached a staff-level agreement on the sixth Extended Fund Facility review and third Resilience and Sustainability Facility review, worth an estimated $294m once the Board approves.
For Jordan’s government and its creditors, the agreement keeps a programme approved in January 2024 on track through a war that has cut tourism and raised trade and transport costs. In The Edge’s reading, the next test is fiscal rather than external: reserves sit above programme targets, while the draft 2027 budget aims for a primary deficit of 0.9% of GDP, against the 0.5% the staff’s June table projected for 2027 on its own primary-balance measure.
Staff announced the agreement on 3 November at the end of a mission to Amman, led by César Serra, that began on 21 October. Of the total, SDR 97.8m (an estimated $133m) comes under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
The other SDR 118.8m (an estimated $161m) comes under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), approved in June 2025 to back reforms against climate and health shocks. The agreement still needs approval from IMF management and the Executive Board.
The new tranche would lift EFF drawings to 79% of the arrangement
By 30 September, Jordan had drawn SDR 633.0m under the EFF, 68.3% of the amount approved. The sixth tranche would lift that share to 78.9%.
That would leave SDR 195.6m ($265m) undrawn under an arrangement that runs to 9 January 2028.
The tranche is the same SDR 97.784m the Executive Board released after the fifth review in June.
The RSF tranche is larger this time. At SDR 118.8m, it is three times the SDR 39.6m released after the second review in June.
RSF drawings would reach 46.2% of the arrangement, up from 23.1% at the end of September. Across both arrangements, drawings would rise to SDR 968.3m ($1.31bn) once the Board signs off.
That is 67.2% of the combined commitment, against 52.2% at the end of September. Jordan’s IMF quota is SDR 343.1m. The EFF is worth 270% of it, and the RSF a further 150%.
IMF arrangements with Jordan (in SDR millions)
| Facility | Agreed | Drawn | After |
|---|---|---|---|
| EFF | 926.370 | 633.022 | 730.806 |
| RSF | 514.650 | 118.770 | 237.534 |
Drawn: amounts drawn as of 30 September 2026 in the Fund’s lending data. After: drawn amounts plus the sixth EFF tranche (97.784) and the third RSF tranche (118.764), on Board approval. The EFF was approved on 10 January 2024 and the RSF on 25 June 2025; both expire on 9 January 2028.
First-half growth reaches 3% as war losses are largely offset
Real GDP grew 3% year on year in the first half of 2026, and inflation stayed contained despite volatile global commodity prices. In June, the staff projected growth of 2.7% for the whole of 2026.
The war has weighed on the economy through lower tourism inflows, higher trade and transport costs, weaker foreign direct investment and volatile energy prices. So far, those headwinds have been largely offset, according to the statement.
The offsets came from strong manufacturing, a surge in logistics tied to the Port of Aqaba’s growing role as a regional trade and transport hub, and a favourable agricultural season. Stronger-than-expected remittances and regional tourism added support.
The current account deficit narrowed on strong exports, subdued non-energy imports and resilient remittances and regional tourism, which offset a higher energy import bill. The June projections had the 2026 deficit widening to 7.4% of GDP from 5.6% in 2025.
The Central Bank of Jordan kept reserve coverage comfortably above programme targets. Staff linked that, with prudent monetary and financial policies, to strong confidence in the dinar’s peg to the dollar, seen in declining dollarisation.
The June projections put gross usable reserves at 8.0 months of imports for 2026, down from 8.6 months in 2025. Banks remain sound, with ample liquidity and strong capital buffers.
Staff were also clear on the risk. The near-term outlook, they said, remains highly contingent on how long and how intensely the war continues and on how far its spillovers persist across the region.
Staff projections from the June review
| Indicator | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth (%) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Inflation (%) | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Current account (% of GDP) | -5.6 | -7.4 | -5.7 |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 8.6 | 8.0 | 8.1 |
2025 preliminary; 2026 and 2027 projected, as published with the Board’s completion of the fifth review on 17 June 2026. The current account includes grants; reserves are gross usable reserves.
Spending restraint offsets a revenue gap as the 2027 budget targets a 0.9% primary deficit
Jordan comfortably met its end-June target for the central government primary deficit. Spending restraint broadly offset a revenue shortfall estimated by staff at 0.8% of GDP in the first half, as war spillovers hit tax collections.
Staff said revenue collections recovered in the third quarter, and that this, together with efforts to contain losses at public utilities, will support meeting the programme’s fiscal targets by year end.
The draft 2027 budget aims for a central government primary deficit, excluding grants, of 0.9% of GDP. It relies on stronger revenue mobilisation, better tax compliance and more efficient spending, alongside further steps to strengthen the finances of public utilities.
The June staff projections showed the primary balance excluding grants at a deficit of 1.4% of GDP for 2026. They had it narrowing to 0.5% in 2027, so the budget target is 0.4 percentage point wider for that year, on the June table’s measure.
The authorities’ objective is to reduce public debt to around 80% of GDP by 2028. That level matches the June table’s debt ratio net of the Social Security Corporation’s holdings, which falls from 82.5% in 2026 to 79.9% in 2028.
On the gross measure of government and guaranteed debt, including NEPCO and WAJ debt, the table projects 108.7% for 2026. It eases only to 106.7% by 2028.
Fiscal path in the June staff projections (in % of GDP)
| Measure | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary balance excl. grants | -1.4 | -0.5 | 0.5 |
| Overall balance | -4.6 | -4.2 | -3.5 |
| Debt net of SSC holdings | 82.5 | 81.4 | 79.9 |
| Gross debt incl. guaranteed | 108.7 | 108.0 | 106.7 |
Projections published on 17 June 2026. The overall balance is for the central government and includes the statistical discrepancy; the primary balance excludes grants. Debt is government direct and guaranteed debt, including NEPCO and WAJ debt; SSC is the Social Security Corporation.
Reforms advance on licensing, water and rail, with more asked on jobs
All quantitative performance criteria and most structural benchmarks for the sixth review were met. In June, by contrast, the Board reported every structural benchmark for the fifth review completed.
Serra said programme performance “has remained strong despite ongoing headwinds” from the war. He added that the structural agenda has advanced but that efforts could be strengthened.
Staff pointed to unified sectoral licensing rules and to progress on the Aqaba-Amman Water Desalination and Conveyance Project and the Aqaba-Shidiya-Maan Railway. They expect both projects to strengthen resilience and connectivity and to draw private investment.
Stronger competition, a more flexible labour market and wider formalisation remain, in the staff’s words, critical for stronger job-rich growth.
All three reform measures due for the third RSF review are on track. They cover setting up a central register of infrastructure assets owned by state-owned enterprises in construction and energy, issuing instructions for an emergency-ready health benefits package and codifying how public health emergencies are financed.
The mission met Prime Minister Hassan, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Shehadeh, Minister of Finance Shibli, Minister of Planning and International Cooperation Toukan, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Al-Kharabsheh and Central Bank of Jordan Governor Al-Sharkas.
What to watch: the IMF Executive Board’s decision on the two reviews, which would release the tranches; the EFF and RSF arrangements both run to 9 January 2028.
Figures are from the International Monetary Fund’s press release No. 26/347 of 3 November 2026, with comparisons from its press release No. 26/211 of 17 June 2026 (including the June table of selected economic indicators), its History of Lending Commitments for Jordan as of 30 September 2026, and its SDR valuation of 3 November 2026 (SDR1 = $1.35428), used for dollar equivalents the releases do not print; shares, multiples and comparisons not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.
Sources: International Monetary Fund, The Edge.
