US Quits Rise to 3.4 Million in September and Factory Orders Climb 1.8% to $677.2bn

By The Edge Research Team

US workers quit 3.4 million jobs in September, the most in a year and a half, while factory orders rose 1.8% for a third straight month, official data show.

For American employers, the month brought more job switching and little else: the survey judged openings, hires and layoffs little changed. Orders outside transportation rose 1.3%, though petroleum and coal products supplied more than half of that gain. In The Edge’s reading, more quits with layoffs steady points to worker confidence rather than distress, though one month is a thin base for a trend.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September at 15:00 GMT on 3 November, and the Census Bureau released its full September report on factory shipments, inventories and orders at the same hour. Job openings were little changed at 7.5 million, a rate of 4.5%. Openings count positions open on the month’s last business day, while hires and separations cover the whole month.

Quits climb to their highest level since March 2025

Quits increased by 321,000 to 3.4 million in September. That is the highest level since March 2025, and 375,000 more than a year earlier.

The quits rate was little changed at 2.1%, against 1.9% in August. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee, and the rate “can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs”, in the agency’s words.

Accommodation and food services supplied most of the rise. Quits there climbed by 197,000, or 61% of the national increase. The industry’s quits rate jumped to 5.0% from 3.6%. In arts, entertainment and recreation, quits fell by 19,000.

Layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.6 million, a rate of 1.0%. At 1,641,000, the level is the lowest since March 2025. Layoffs fell by 70,000 in health care and social assistance, and the layoffs rate fell for establishments with fewer than 10 employees.

Quits now account for a larger share of separations. Quits made up 63.3% of all separations in September, up from 57.9% a year earlier. There were 2.05 quits for every layoff, against 1.65 a year earlier.

Labour turnover (in thousands)

Seasonally adjusted, total nonfarm. September 2026 is preliminary; August as revised in the September release.

Openings edge up in the public sector and the West

Openings rose by 333,000 to 7,523,000, a move the survey classed as little change. The level is the highest since May and 4.9% above a year earlier.

State and local government outside education added 104,000 openings, the increase the release named for the month. Government openings as a whole rose by 98,000. The public sector’s openings rate rose to 3.6% from 3.2%. Private sector openings rose by 236,000 to 6.6 million.

By region, the West accounted for 244,000 of the national rise. Its openings rate climbed to 4.8% from 4.2%. The South was the one region of the four where openings fell, by 49,000.

Over the year, vacancies have shifted toward goods producers. Manufacturing openings reached 584,000, 50% more than a year earlier. The industry’s openings rate rose to 4.4% from 3.0% over the same period. Construction openings rose 44.7% to 298,000.

Leisure and hospitality moved the other way. Its openings fell 32.4% from a year earlier, to 779,000. Within it, accommodation and food services had 659,000 openings, against 989,000 a year earlier.

Hires changed little at 5.4 million, a rate of 3.4%. The level is the most since March. Hires in accommodation and food services rose by 158,000, and total hires exceeded total separations by 83,000.

August was revised higher on most lines. Openings for August were revised up by 111,000 to 7.2 million. Layoffs were revised up by 127,000, while quits were revised down by 22,000. The first August estimate, 7.08 million openings, was set out here on 29 September.

Job openings by sector (in thousands)

Seasonally adjusted; September 2026 is preliminary.

Factory orders rise for a third month as petroleum and transport lead

New orders for manufactured goods rose by $12.2 billion to $677.2 billion in September. August now shows a 0.3% rise, to $665.0 billion. The first estimate, a 0.1% gain, was set out here on 3 October.

Orders were 10.5% above September 2025. The figures are adjusted for seasonal variation but not for price changes, so they measure the value of orders rather than their volume.

Transportation equipment orders rose 4.6%, supplying 43% of the monthly gain. Excluding transportation, orders rose 1.3% to $557.4 billion. That is 11.1% above a year earlier.

The full report revised durable goods orders to a 1.9% rise, at $345.7 billion. The advance report, set out here on 27 October, had shown 1.8%. Nondurable goods orders rose 1.8% to $331.6 billion.

Shipments of petroleum and coal products rose 5.2% to $75.0 billion. That supplied 64.7% of the rise in nondurable goods shipments. Petroleum and coal shipments are 39.7% higher than a year earlier. Because the survey records orders for nondurable goods as equal to their shipments, petroleum and coal products supplied more than half of the rise in orders outside transportation.

Core capital goods orders, meaning nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, were revised to a 0.6% gain, at $88.2 billion. They are 13.7% above a year earlier. Core shipments rose 1.2% to $86.1 billion. Core orders ran $2.1 billion ahead of them.

New orders by category (in $ millions; change in %)

Seasonally adjusted, not adjusted for prices; values from the M3 time series of 3 November 2026. Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.

Shipments, backlogs and stocks all climb

Shipments rose 1.3% to $668.5 billion. They have risen in 11 of the last 12 months. Shipments are 10.2% above their level a year earlier.

Orders exceeded shipments by $8.8 billion, and the backlog grew again. Unfilled orders rose 0.9% to $1,623.8 billion. The backlog has grown in 26 of the last 27 months. It is 9.0% larger than a year earlier. The ratio of unfilled orders to shipments eased to 6.84 from 6.86.

Inventories rose 0.4% to $976.0 billion. Stocks have now increased for 12 consecutive months. Because shipments grew faster, the inventories to shipments ratio eased to 1.46 from 1.47. A year earlier it stood at 1.56.

One caveat covers all of the factory figures. Statistical significance cannot be measured for that survey, because its estimates are not based on a probability sample.

What to watch: The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes job openings and labour turnover for October on 1 December 2026 at 15:00 GMT. The Census Bureau’s advance report on October durable goods is due on 25 November 2026 at 13:30 GMT, and its full report on factory orders for October on 3 December 2026 at 15:00 GMT.

Method: figures are from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover release for September 2026 (USDL-26-1630, 3 November 2026) and its JOLTS data series, and from the full report on manufacturers’ shipments, inventories and orders for September 2026 (CB26-170, 3 November 2026) and its M3 time series; percentages, shares, ratios, differences and run lengths not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations, made from the unrounded figures; release times are from the release notices and the M3 release schedule, converted from US Eastern Time by The Edge.

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census Bureau, The Edge.

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