Jordan’s September Inflation Picks Up to 2.73 Percent as Industrial Output Jumps 3.34 Percent
Jordan’s annual consumer price inflation rose to 2.73 percent in September from 2.66 percent in August, Department of Statistics figures carried by the state news agency Petra on 12 October show, lifting the average for the first nine months of 2026 to 2.26 percent. Industrial output, in figures carried the same day, rose 3.34 percent in August on a year earlier and 3.16 percent on July, taking growth for January to August to 0.62 percent.
Consumer prices rose 0.16 percent from August, after a 0.25 percent monthly fall in August. Both September rates point to an index of 115.8 (2018 = 100) on our calculation.
September Ends Three Months of Easing
Annual inflation reached this year’s high of 2.83 percent in May, then eased in June, July and August. On our calculation, September’s 2.73 percent, the first pickup since May, sits 0.10 percentage points below that high. The larger shift is across the year: the September rate is 1.67 points above January’s 1.06 percent and 0.99 points above the 1.74 percent of September 2025.
The year-to-date average has risen every month since January’s 1.06 percent. Every monthly rate since February has run above the year-to-date average, which is why the average keeps climbing even in months when the annual rate eases.
On the price level itself, the index in August stood 2.13 percent above December 2025’s 113.22, and September’s 0.16 percent monthly rise takes the increase since December to 2.29 percent on our calculation.
Jordan’s inflation in 2026, month by month
| Month | Year on year | Year-to-date average |
|---|---|---|
| January | 1.06% | 1.06% |
| February | 1.17% | 1.11% |
| March | 1.87% | 1.36% |
| April | 2.49% | 1.65% |
| May | 2.83% | 1.88% |
| June | 2.79% | 2.03% |
| July | 2.70% | 2.13% |
| August | 2.66% | 2.20% |
| September | 2.73% | 2.26% |
Changes against the same month and the same period of 2025. Index 2018 = 100; August 2026 index 115.63, September 2025 index 112.74.
Transport and Rent Supply More Than Two Thirds of the Rate
Transportation added 1.13 percentage points to September’s annual rate and rent 0.76 points. Together, on our calculation, they account for 1.89 points, or 69.2 percent of the headline, from two groups that make up 33.52 percent of the basket (15.98 percent for transport and 17.54 percent for rent in the August consumer price release). Oils and fats added 0.29 points, which on our calculation is 10.6 percent of the headline from a basket weight of 1.70 percent, a share 6.2 times its weight.
The groups that can be compared with August barely moved. Transport went from 1.12 points to 1.13, rent stayed at 0.76, oils and fats at 0.29 and dairy products and eggs at minus 0.04, while fruits and nuts subtracted 0.18 points against 0.17 a month earlier. Those five net to no change on our calculation, so the 0.07 point rise in the headline came from the other groups in the basket.
Three food groups were the offset, together taking 0.43 points off the annual rate on our calculation, led by vegetables and dried and canned legumes at 0.21 points.
Over the nine months, rent contributed 0.72 points, transport 0.66, oils and fats 0.27 and tobacco and cigarettes 0.17. Those four groups supply 1.82 points, or 80.5 percent of the 2.26 percent average, on our calculation, with rent alone at 31.9 percent. Transport’s nine-month contribution rose from 0.60 points through August to 0.66, the biggest change among the four.
What drove September’s 2.73 percent
| Group | Contribution, points | Share of headline |
|---|---|---|
| Transportation | 1.13 | 41.4% |
| Rent | 0.76 | 27.8% |
| Oils and fats | 0.29 | 10.6% |
| Vegetables and dried and canned legumes | -0.21 | -7.7% |
| Fruits and nuts | -0.18 | -6.6% |
| Dairy products and eggs | -0.04 | -1.5% |
Contributions to the September 2026 annual rate in percentage points. Shares of the 2.73 percent headline are our calculation; other groups make up the balance.
Manufacturing Lifts Output to the Year’s Highest Reading
The industrial production quantity index reached 95.88 in August, its highest level of 2026 so far, against 92.94 in July and 92.78 in August 2025. It stands 7.19 percent above the year-to-date average of 89.45, on our calculation. The turn has been quick: in June, output was 1.34 percent lower than a year earlier and 0.50 percent down on May. In the 21 September release, July swung to a 1.22 percent annual gain, its index of 92.96 standing 4.61 percent above June’s 88.86; the latest figures revise July to 92.94. August’s annual gain was 3.34 percent.
That shows up in the cumulative figure. Growth for the year stood at 0.04 percent after the first half, 0.21 percent through July and 0.62 percent through August. On our calculation, the year-to-date rate rose 0.41 points with the August figures.
Manufacturing, 88.7 percent of the index, grew 0.71 percent through August, up from 0.27 percent through July, and 3.72 percent in August on a year earlier after 2.01 percent in July. Weighting each sector’s growth by its share of the index, on our calculation, manufacturing supplies 0.63 points of the year’s growth, electricity 0.13 points and mining and quarrying minus 0.12 points. The two smaller sectors largely offset each other, leaving manufacturing to carry the year; the three weighted terms sum to 0.64 points against the published 0.62 percent, so the split is an approximation.
Mining and quarrying’s 2.97 percent annual fall in August was much smaller than July’s 9.76 percent. On the month, electricity rose 9.74 percent, mining and quarrying 9.22 percent and manufacturing 2.38 percent; weighted the same approximate way, manufacturing still accounts for 2.11 points, or 66.8 percent, of August’s 3.16 percent monthly rise, on our calculation.
Industrial production index, June to August 2026
| Measure | June | July | August |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index level | 88.86 | 92.96, revised to 92.94 | 95.88 |
| Change on a year earlier | -1.34% | 1.22% | 3.34% |
| Change on previous month | -0.50% | 4.61% | 3.16% |
| Year-to-date growth | 0.04% | 0.21% | 0.62% |
July’s 4.61 percent monthly, 1.22 percent annual and 0.21 percent year-to-date changes are from the 21 September release, which put July at 92.96 against 88.86 in June; the latest figures revise July to 92.94, and August’s monthly change is measured against that revised level. Year-to-date average 89.45 in 2026 against 88.90 in 2025.
Sector growth in industrial output, 2026
| Sector, weight | January to July | January to August | August, year on year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing, 88.7% | 0.27% | 0.71% | 3.72% |
| Electricity, 5.9% | 1.90% | 2.14% | 3.54% |
| Mining and quarrying, 5.4% | -2.11% | -2.21% | -2.97% |
Changes in production quantities against the same period of 2025. Weights are each sector’s share of the index.
Industrial producer prices fell 0.61 percent in August from July but were 3.47 percent higher than a year earlier, the Department of Statistics reported on 7 October. The two indices measure different baskets. On our calculation, the annual producer rate in August ran 0.81 points above the consumer rate for the same month, while the figures for the first eight months were close, at 2.24 percent for producer prices and 2.20 percent for consumer prices.
Why it matters: Jordan’s inflation is rising again, but from a moderate base and on a narrow set of drivers: transport and rent, 33.52 percent of the basket, produce more than two thirds of the September rate, while vegetables, fruit and dairy work the other way. The Central Bank of Jordan’s main rate of 6 percent stood 3.27 points above September’s annual inflation rate, a simple comparison of the policy rate with inflation, and 3.74 points above the nine-month average, on our calculation. On the output side, manufacturing carries the recovery: on our weighting it supplies almost all of the 0.62 percent growth this year, and its 3.72 percent annual gain in August came as the index posted its two highest readings of 2026 in July and August.
Outlook: The October consumer price release and the September industrial figures will show whether August’s output jump holds and whether September’s inflation pickup extends. The 2025 base is uneven: the consumer price index rose 0.07 percent in October 2025, fell 0.32 percent in November and rose 0.68 percent in December, on our calculation. On those base moves alone, the annual rate would tend to rise in November and ease in December; the readings themselves depend on this year’s monthly price changes. In industry, the test is whether manufacturing can keep growing faster than the 0.71 percent it has managed so far this year.
Sources: Department of Statistics, Petra, Central Bank of Jordan, The Edge.
