Kuwait’s non oil PMI reaches 53.6 in August as employment rises for the first time in 6 months
Kuwait’s non oil private sector grew at its fastest pace since February in August, with the S&P Global Kuwait PMI climbing to 53.6 from 50.8 in July, a gain of 2.8 points, the largest in the Gulf set and matched only by Egypt across the surveys released that day. The reading held above the 50.0 mark that separates improvement from deterioration for a second consecutive month, and staffing levels rose for the first time in 6 months.
The 2.8 point gain matters more than the level. Kuwait entered August barely above the no change mark at 50.8, a reading consistent with a private sector that had stopped shrinking rather than one that was growing. August put 3.6 points of clear water between the survey and that line.
Four Gulf economies, and a fifth reading from Dubai
| Non oil PMI | August | July |
|---|---|---|
| United Arab Emirates | 55.3 | 52.7 |
| Saudi Arabia | 53.8 | 53.1 |
| Kuwait | 53.6 | 50.8 |
| Dubai | 54.1 | 51.7 |
| Qatar | 47.6 | 48.5 |
Published 3 September 2026, all seasonally adjusted, with 50.0 the no change level. Data were collected between 12 and 24 August. The Saudi survey is branded the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI and the Dubai index is published within the United Arab Emirates release. The spread between the strongest and weakest Gulf reading was 7.7 points, on our calculation.
Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates produced almost the entire month’s movement. The Emirates gained 2.6 points to 55.3, the fastest improvement in operating conditions since December 2024, and Dubai gained 2.4 points to 54.1. Saudi Arabia added 0.7 points to reach a 6 month high of 53.8, though that still sits 3.0 points below the survey’s stated long run trend of 56.8, on our calculation, so a 6 month high in the Saudi series is not yet an above trend reading.
Qatar moved the other way, falling 0.9 points to 47.6 and extending its downturn to a sixth month. There is a second reading inside that number. The Qatar survey has averaged 48.1 in the third quarter so far against 46.6 across the first half of 2026, a gain of 1.5 points on the half year, so the level is falling while the quarterly average is improving.
What lifted Kuwait, and what it cost
Output and new orders both rose at their sharpest rates since February, and total new business was supported by a renewed increase in new export orders, with firms reporting sales secured from customers in neighbouring countries. Backlogs of work rose for a second month and did so more quickly than in July, which is the clearest evidence in the release that demand outran capacity. Suppliers responded: lead times shortened by the most since February.
Employment was the release’s headline change. Staffing levels rose for the first time in 6 months, though the rate of job creation was described as only modest and insufficient to prevent a further build up of outstanding business. Firms met the gap through purchasing instead: input buying rose at the joint fastest pace since the survey began in September 2018, equal with November 2024, and stocks of purchases accumulated to the largest degree in the year to date.
That came at a price. Input cost inflation reached a 6 month high, with staff costs rising at the fastest pace so far in 2026, alongside higher maintenance, marketing, raw materials and utilities costs. Output charges rose solidly as firms passed costs through, although some reported offering discounts to support sales.
Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said “the recovery in Kuwait’s non-oil private sector stepped up a gear in August, with companies increasingly able to secure new business and ramp up their own output accordingly. There was also welcome news on the jobs front as employment returned to growth, but more will be needed in the months ahead if workloads continue to strengthen.”
The Egyptian comparison, and why the same gain means different things
Egypt’s reading rose by an identical 2.8 points, from 46.8 to 49.6, which we reported separately on 3 September. The arithmetic is the same and the meaning is not. Kuwait’s 2.8 points carried it further above the no change line; Egypt’s carried it from a marked contraction to a marginal one, an eighth consecutive month below 50.0.
The comparison breaks down further on the survey’s own terms. The Egyptian release notes that a PMI of 33.4, not 50.0, is the level historically consistent with no change in annual GDP growth for that economy. No such adjustment is published for the Gulf surveys. The 50.0 threshold means the same thing in every survey, so the index itself is comparable; what differs is the relationship each series has historically had with output. Cross country levels should therefore be read with care, because sector composition, survey history and that mapping all differ.
Why it matters: Kuwait’s non oil private sector is the part of the economy that public policy is trying to grow, and August is the first month in half a year in which that sector added jobs rather than shed them. The composition matters as much as the headline: firms met new work by building the largest inventory of the year and by buying inputs at a joint record pace, rather than by hiring at scale, which is what a private sector that has been told to expect volatility does before it commits to payroll. Input costs at a 6 month high with staff costs rising fastest of all is the constraint to watch, because a recovery that runs through wages and inventories rather than through capacity converts into margin pressure before it converts into output. For the wider Gulf the month broke the region into two groups rather than one: three surveys accelerating and one, Qatar, in a sixth month of contraction, which means the regional aggregate now conceals more than it reveals.
Outlook: The test for Kuwait is whether the modest rise in employment becomes a trend, because the survey already records backlogs rising for a second month and rising faster than in July. If hiring stays modest while new orders keep growing, the backlog builds and either delivery times lengthen or firms turn work away. The joint record rise in input buying gives a second signal to watch: inventories built at that pace are either a bet on continued demand or a hedge against supply cost, and the September and October readings on stocks of purchases will show which. Qatar is the divergent case, and its own quarterly average is now improving even as the monthly level falls, so the question there is whether the sixth month of contraction is the end of a run or the middle of one.
Sources: S&P Global, Riyad Bank, The Edge.
