Oil Holds Near US$80 as Gold and Silver Slide on Softer Haven Demand and Firmer Rate Expectations

By The Edge Research Team

Commodity markets split in two directions on Thursday, with crude oil holding near the US$80 level even as gold and silver extended their decline, as traders weighed how quickly Gulf supply will return through the reopened Strait of Hormuz against a firmer outlook for US interest rates.

Prices from CNBC front-month futures; settlement refers to the Wednesday 18 June prior-session close, live to Thursday 19 June intraday levels (around midday in London), indicative as commodity prices move continuously. Day moves are calculated against the last settlement.

Crude Oil Holds Near US$80

Brent crude last settled at US$79.85 a barrel and was trading around US$80.14 on Thursday, up about 0.4%, while US West Texas Intermediate firmed more clearly, last settling at US$76.60 and trading near US$77.81, a gain of roughly 1.6%. The steadier tone interrupts a multi-session slide that had taken oil to its lowest since early March, well below the wartime peak near US$126 a barrel.

The steadying reflects a market reassessing how quickly Gulf barrels will actually return. While the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has removed much of the war-risk premium, the practical pace of recovery — tanker availability, insurance, port operations and the speed at which producers ramp output — remains uncertain. That debate was sharpened this week by an unusual public clash between OPEC and the International Energy Agency over whether the market is heading for a 2027 glut, leaving traders cautious about pricing in a surplus too quickly.

Gold and Silver Extend Losses

Precious metals moved the other way. Gold’s COMEX contract last settled at US$4,245.90 an ounce and fell about 1.7% on Thursday to around US$4,173.80, while silver dropped about 2.3% from a settlement of US$66.32 to roughly US$64.80. Both metals remain well below the record highs they set in January 2026, underscoring that the move is a continued retreat from elevated levels rather than a new milestone.

Two forces are weighing on the haven metals at once. The first is the fading geopolitical premium as the Hormuz reopening reduces demand for protection. The second is the hawkish turn at the US Federal Reserve, whose latest projections point to a higher rate path and a possible 2026 hike; rising Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver.

Industrial Metals and Gas

Copper, a barometer of global industrial demand, eased about 0.8% from a settlement of US$6.3855 a pound to around US$6.336, in line with the cautious risk tone. US natural gas at Henry Hub also slipped about 1.1%, from US$3.233 per million British thermal units to around US$3.199, driven more by domestic supply, storage and weather dynamics than by the Middle East risk premium.

Why It Matters for the Region

For Gulf producers, the steadier oil tone is a modest relief after a sharp sell-off, but the bigger question is whether prices can hold as regional supply returns. A market that prices in a looming surplus would pressure the hydrocarbon revenues that underpin regional budgets, reinforcing the case for fiscal discipline and diversification. The simultaneous slide in gold and silver also matters for the region’s large official and private holdings of precious metals, which had benefited from the wartime safe-haven bid.

Outlook

The near-term path hinges on two variables: how smoothly Gulf exports normalise through Hormuz, and how firmly the Federal Reserve signals it will hold or raise rates. If supply returns in an orderly way and demand holds, oil could stabilise in a lower range; if the surplus narrative gains traction, prices could come under renewed pressure. For gold and silver, the Fed’s trajectory will remain the dominant driver now that the war premium is unwinding.

Sources: CNBC (Brent, WTI, gold, silver, copper and Henry Hub prices).

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