OPEC Crude Output Rises 930,000 Barrels a Day Toward Pre-War Levels, Led by Saudi Arabia
OPEC’s crude output rose by 930,000 barrels a day in October to 22.8 million, a Bloomberg survey shows, as Saudi Arabia led a further recovery in Gulf supplies.
For oil producers and their customers, that brings the group to an estimated 88% of what the same members pumped in February, the comparison the survey uses for pre-war supply. In The Edge’s reading, the next leg of the recovery depends most on Saudi Arabia, which accounted for the largest share of the volume still to return in the group’s September data and the widest room among the seven producers with required production levels.
The survey is the first read of October. OPEC’s official country estimates, compiled from secondary sources, run to September and are next due on 11 November; the two series differ and their levels do not match, so the survey’s 88% for October cannot be read against OPEC’s own ratio for September, and the country picture below keeps to the official figures.
The United Arab Emirates exited OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance with effect from 1 May, leaving the group with 11 members. Announcing the decision on 28 April, it said the move reflects its long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile. OPEC’s monthly report still counts the UAE within its OPEC totals, September included.
Saudi Arabia accounts for the largest share of the recovery to come
OPEC’s current members produced 21.18 million barrels a day in September on secondary sources, 83.9% of their February output. That left 4.05 million barrels a day to recover.
The shortfall sits almost entirely inside OPEC. Without the UAE, the wider Declaration of Cooperation produced 35.15 million barrels a day in September, 89.3% of February. OPEC’s current members account for 96.4% of the coalition’s remaining gap, while its non-OPEC members, Russia and Kazakhstan among them, were at 98.9% of their February output.
By The Edge’s calculation, Saudi Arabia accounts for 2.11 million barrels a day of OPEC’s gap, or 52% of it. The kingdom produced 8.00 million barrels a day in September, 79.1% of its February level. Its September rise was set out in our 14 October report.
The kingdom’s own figures point the same way. Its report by direct communication put September production at 8.37 million barrels a day. That was 34.2% above a low August reading of 6.24 million. Supply to the market was 7.99 million.
Crude production by secondary sources (in thousand barrels a day)
| Producer | Feb 26 | Q2 26 | Sep 26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 10,112 | 6,822 | 8,001 |
| Iraq | 4,188 | 1,628 | 3,920 |
| Kuwait | 2,582 | 867 | 1,766 |
| Iran | 3,241 | 2,532 | 1,957 |
| OPEC, 11 members | 25,231 | 17,331 | 21,180 |
| UAE (former member) | 3,419 | 2,668 | 3,917 |
| OPEC report total | 28,650 | 19,999 | 25,097 |
| Oman | 808 | 916 | 939 |
| Bahrain | 162 | 44 | 93 |
February from the May 2026 report, the last edition to show the month (later editions revised first-quarter averages slightly); second-quarter average and September from the October 2026 report. OPEC’s report total still includes the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May 2026; the 11-member total excludes it. Oman and Bahrain are non-OPEC members of the Declaration of Cooperation.
Gulf producers rebound from the second-quarter trough
Measured from the second-quarter average, the recovery is broad: output from OPEC’s current members in September was 3.85 million barrels a day above that level, a gain of 22.2%. Saudi Arabia added 1.18 million, a rise of 17.3%. Its third-quarter average of 7.52 million barrels a day was 10.3% above the second quarter’s.
The United Arab Emirates, outside OPEC since May, produced 3.92 million barrels a day in September, 46.8% above its second-quarter average. That is 498,000 barrels a day, or 14.6%, more than in February, the survey’s pre-war base.
Kuwait more than doubled its output from a second-quarter average of 867,000 barrels a day. Its third-quarter average of 1.84 million was 2.1 times the second quarter’s. Iraq’s September output was 2.4 times its own second-quarter level.
Oman, outside OPEC but part of the wider coalition, produced 939,000 barrels a day in September, 131,000 above February. Bahrain’s output of 93,000 barrels a day was 2.1 times its second-quarter average.
Kuwait’s September output was 140,000 barrels a day lower than in August, at 68.4% of its February level. Bahrain stood at 57.4% of February. Iran produced 60.4% of its February volume, and its gap of 1.28 million barrels a day is the second largest after Saudi Arabia’s.
Saudi Arabia has the widest room within its agreed level
On 1 November, seven OPEC+ producers kept December’s required production at September levels, as set out in our report that day, leaving Saudi Arabia’s at 10.48 million barrels a day. The kingdom’s September output was 76.4% of that level, a margin of 2.48 million barrels a day.
Kuwait has 910,000 barrels a day of room within its required 2.68 million. Iraq produced 88.5% of its required 4.43 million. Its September output stood at 93.6% of February.
Those margins measure room within the agreed levels, not spare capacity or a forecast of output. The survey’s account of October as a further Gulf recovery led by the kingdom suggests the distance narrowed again last month, though Saudi Arabia’s October figure is not yet in the official estimates.
What to watch:
11 November: OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report for November, with October secondary-source estimates by country.
29 November: the next meeting of the seven OPEC+ producers on required production.
Method: October figures are from the Bloomberg survey of OPEC output published on 6 November 2026, which compares October with what the same members pumped in February; it is a separate estimate, not directly comparable with OPEC’s figures. Country figures are OPEC secondary-source estimates from its Monthly Oil Market Report (October 2026 and May 2026 editions), whose totals still include the United Arab Emirates; OPEC and Declaration of Cooperation totals in the text and the 11-member row exclude the UAE, which left both with effect from 1 May 2026. Required production is from OPEC’s 1 November 2026 statement; percentages, gaps and ratios not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.
Sources: Bloomberg, OPEC, WAM, The Edge.
