OPEC Lifts 2027 Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 2.6 Million Barrels a Day as Saudi Output Rises
OPEC raised its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.55 million barrels a day, from 2.36 million a month earlier, in its Monthly Oil Market Report for October, while trimming its 2026 estimate to 180,000 barrels a day from 380,000. Crude production by the countries in the Declaration of Cooperation rose by 903,000 barrels a day in September to 39.07 million, according to the secondary sources the report relies on, with Saudi Arabia adding 744,000.
A softer 2026, a stronger 2027
The report expects demand in the developed economies of the OECD to ease by 210,000 barrels a day in 2026, while demand elsewhere grows by 390,000, led by Latin America and Africa at 130,000 each; it sees China down 60,000 and the Middle East down 70,000. It described some of the recent soft demand data, especially for China, as preliminary and possibly subject to upward revision. For 2027 it expects demand to rebound to an average of 108.28 million barrels a day, bolstered by the need to replenish inventories, with 2.01 million barrels a day of the growth outside the OECD.
World oil demand growth, million barrels a day
| Segment | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| World | 0.18 | 2.55 |
| Non-OECD | 0.39 | 2.01 |
| OECD | -0.21 | 0.54 |
From the October report. The September report had 0.38 for 2026 and 2.36 for 2027.
Gulf output recovers in September
Saudi Arabia’s output rose to 8.001 million barrels a day in September, accounting for 82.4 percent of the coalition’s monthly increase on our calculation, while Iraq added 386,000 barrels a day to 3.92 million and the United Arab Emirates 86,000 to 3.917 million. Kuwait’s output was 1.766 million barrels a day, 140,000 lower than in August, and Bahrain added 13,000 to 93,000.
Crude production by secondary sources, thousand barrels a day
| Producer | September 2026 | Change on August |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 8,001 | 744 |
| Iraq | 3,920 | 386 |
| United Arab Emirates | 3,917 | 86 |
| Kuwait | 1,766 | -140 |
| Oman | 939 | 0 |
| Bahrain | 93 | 13 |
| Declaration of Cooperation, total | 39,068 | 903 |
Changes as printed in the report.
The call on the coalition rises in 2027
The report puts demand for the coalition’s crude at 42.1 million barrels a day in 2026, 600,000 below 2025 and slightly lower than its September assessment, and at 43.9 million in 2027, 1.8 million above this year. Liquids supply from outside the coalition is forecast to grow by 640,000 barrels a day in 2026 and 620,000 in 2027, with Qatar among the main drivers in 2027. The OPEC Reference Basket averaged 110.59 dollars a barrel in September, up 24.15 dollars on the month, with Kuwait Export crude at 108.99 dollars and Murban at 115.39 dollars.
Why it matters: A rise of 1.8 million barrels a day in the call on the coalition’s crude in 2027 points to stronger demand for Gulf producers’ oil next year, after a September recovery led by Saudi Arabia, on our reading.
Outlook: The next Monthly Oil Market Report is due on 11 November.
Sources: OPEC, The Edge.
