OPEC Plus Raises August Output by 188,000 Barrels a Day as Saudi Arabia and Russia Lead
A group of seven producers within the OPEC Plus alliance, including Kuwait, agreed on Sunday to raise their combined oil output by 188,000 barrels a day in August, continuing the gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts first announced in April 2023. The decision, taken at a virtual meeting on 5 July 2026, keeps the same monthly pace as July and marks another measured step in restoring supply while preserving the flexibility to adjust if market conditions weaken.
The seven producers are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. The United Arab Emirates, which took part in earlier phases of the broader voluntary-cut framework, is not part of this seven-country group for August, though it remains an OPEC member. OPEC said the additional voluntary adjustments may be returned in part or in full and in a gradual manner, subject to market conditions, and that the participating countries retain the ability to increase, pause or reverse the phase out.
The official table sets Kuwait’s August production increment at 16,000 barrels a day, lifting its required production level to 2.660 million barrels a day. The full country-by-country breakdown is below.
| Country | Production increment (kbd) | August required production (kbd) |
|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | +62 | 10,416 |
| Russia | +62 | 9,887 |
| Iraq | +26 | 4,405 |
| Kuwait | +16 | 2,660 |
| Kazakhstan | +10 | 1,618 |
| Algeria | +6 | 1,001 |
| Oman | +5 | 836 |
| Total | +188 | 30,823 |
Kuwait’s 16,000 barrel a day increment is 8.5 percent of the group’s total August increase, our calculation. Saudi Arabia and Russia take the largest increments at 62,000 barrels a day each, so Saudi Arabia alone accounts for about a third of the monthly addition. The five MENA producers in the group, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria and Oman, together account for 115,000 barrels a day, or 61.2 percent of the total, our calculation, underscoring how concentrated the incremental supply is in the Gulf and North Africa.
At 188,000 barrels a day, the August increase is modest against a global market that consumes more than 100 million barrels a day, equivalent to less than 0.2 percent of world demand, our calculation. It matches the June and July steps and is smaller than the larger increments the group made in the spring. The cumulative effect of successive monthly steps matters more than any single increment, as the alliance steadily restores the roughly 1.65 million barrels a day it had withheld while trying to avoid a sudden surge that could pressure prices.
For Kuwait, the confirmed August required level of 2.660 million barrels a day adds another slice of permitted output at a time when oil revenue still funds the great majority of the state budget. The extra 16,000 barrels a day is not transformative on its own, but it lifts volumes while aligning with the price discipline that remains crucial for fiscal stability, and a predictable, gradual restoration of output is preferable for the budget to abrupt swings in either direction.
The gap between required and actual production continues to shape the decision’s real impact. OPEC stressed conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation and said the seven would fully compensate for any volumes overproduced since January 2024, a mechanism monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee. Market effects will therefore depend not only on the headline increase but on how fully producers ramp up and on the compensation owed by those that had pumped above target.
The decision arrives in a more balanced market. Brent crude settled around 72 dollars a barrel on Friday 4 July after a weak June, as the risk premium tied to earlier regional tensions eased. The alliance is therefore adding barrels into a market that is comfortably supplied rather than one facing an acute shortage.
The group continues to balance defending prices against protecting market share. Returning barrels too quickly could weaken prices and squeeze budgets across Kuwait, the Gulf and the wider MENA region; holding them back too long risks ceding ground to non-OPEC supply. The steady 188,000 barrel a day cadence reflects a preference for gradualism that tries to serve both aims at once.
Why it matters: For Kuwait and its MENA peers, OPEC Plus decisions feed directly into fiscal revenue through the interplay of price and volume. The August step delivers Kuwait a confirmed 16,000 barrel a day increment and lifts its required production to 2.660 million barrels a day, while the collective addition stays modest enough to limit downside price risk. For the wider market, it signals continued gradual normalisation of output alongside the flexibility to pause if demand disappoints.
Outlook: The seven producers will meet again on 2 August 2026 to review market conditions, conformity, compensation and September output. The key variables are the path of Brent prices, the strength of summer demand, actual versus required production, and progress on compensation. Stable or firmer prices could allow continued measured increases, while a marked weakening would likely prompt a pause or reversal under the group’s explicit flexibility.
Sources: OPEC official statement and August 2026 production table; market data.
