Report: Two Vacancies, One Winter — The 43 Billion Cubic Metre Gulf LNG Shock, the EU’s 33 Billion Cubic Metre Russian Gas Phase Out, and Who Can Contract, Ship and Deliver in 2027
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Two official numbers now define the LNG market heading into 2027, and they do not describe the same vacancy. The Edge has published a new report separating the 43 billion cubic metre fall in Gulf LNG exports recorded by the International Energy Agency between March and July from the European Union’s phase out of around 33 billion cubic metres a year of Russian gas by 2028, and asking which suppliers can contract, ship and deliver into the space each one leaves in 2027.
Two vacancies, properly counted
The first vacancy is physical. From March the Strait of Hormuz ceased to function as a normal commercial LNG corridor, cutting off about 20 percent of global LNG supply, mostly Qatari, on the US Energy Information Administration’s account, and the March attacks on Ras Laffan damaged two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and one gas to liquids plant, removing 12.8 million tonnes a year of capacity. On 21 September QatarEnergy’s chief executive, Saad Al-Kaabi, put the repair at three years for the two trains and the first quarter of 2027 for the gas to liquids plant, and said Qatar was ready to resume normal operations within a few weeks of the reopening of the strait. The second vacancy is legal and sequenced: all remaining Russian LNG imports into the Union end on 1 January 2027 and remaining pipeline imports on 30 September 2027, extendable to 1 November. The report’s arithmetic point is that treating 43 and 33 as one 76 billion cubic metre deficit is wrong, and it keeps the two apart throughout.
The fill so far, and the American share
Supply did not wait for a Gulf answer. LNG production outside the Gulf rose by almost 16 percent, or more than 30 billion cubic metres, between March and July, offsetting around 70 percent of the decline, with new projects in North America and Africa supplying most of the increase. The United States is the swing supplier of record: exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet a day in the first half of 2026, 23 percent higher than a year earlier and the fastest growth since large scale exports began in 2016, with 18.7 billion cubic feet a day forecast for the first half of 2027 on the US Energy Information Administration’s figures. The destination shift is the evidence of where the missing cargoes fell: American shipments to Asia rose 108 percent in the first half while shipments to Europe rose 1 percent, so the growth went where the Qatari shortfall landed and Europe has held its volume rather than gained it, on the report’s reading.
The 2027 European slot is narrower than the headline
The 2027 European opportunity is narrower than 33 billion cubic metres and more concrete. The authorised Russian LNG contracts held in Europe total roughly 20 to 32 billion cubic metres a year on ACER’s monitoring, and those direct imports are prohibited from 1 January 2027. European buyers have signed more than 45 billion cubic metres a year of new LNG contracts since 2022, but Central and Eastern Europe accounts for less than a fifth of that paper and has secured only about 5 billion cubic metres a year by 2028, 5 percent of its current demand. The constraint is not terminal capacity, which has grown to nearly 35 billion cubic metres a year in that region; it is contracted supply, route resilience and price, with south to north pipeline capacity of around 10 billion cubic metres a year the binding infrastructure.
Four GCC answers to one delivery question
The Gulf is not a single LNG supplier, and the report maps four different positions. Qatar exported 81.5 million tonnes in 2025, 18.7 percent of global trade on International Gas Union data, and holds the largest upside if the strait normalises, while its 18 million tonne a year Golden Pass project in Texas, 70 percent owned by QatarEnergy, keeps the company in the Atlantic market with Trains 2 and 3 expected in full operation during 2027; the company’s stated ambition to become the largest LNG trader in the world means Qatari contracts can also be delivered from third party plants. The UAE’s Das Island, at 6 million tonnes a year on ADNOC Gas figures, ships through the strait, and Ruwais LNG, at 9.6 million tonnes a year, is a 2028 project already more than 90 percent committed. Oman’s Qalhat complex is the GCC’s only operating liquefaction outside the chokepoint, loading directly onto the Arabian Sea at 11.4 million tonnes a year on the ministry’s figure, a route advantage the report values above its scale. Saudi Arabia’s Jafurah expansion is a domestic gas story that supports power, industry and oil export availability rather than a 2027 LNG cargo. Geography, the report concludes, has become part of the LNG specification.
Prices and the winter test
European TTF averaged 14.74 dollars per million British thermal units in the first half, 12.5 percent higher than a year earlier on the report’s calculation and the highest first half since 2022, and the Japan Korea Marker averaged a four year high of 15.56 dollars. Winter 2026 to 2027 is the test of whether the roughly 30 percent of the March to July decline that was not offset is absorbed through lower demand, additional Atlantic cargoes or a restoration of Gulf flows. If normal transit is not restored before winter, the physical Gulf shock will overlap with the 1 January Russian LNG ban, and while the two numbers still should not be added, the risks would then reinforce each other. The Edge base case is a 2027 market with a larger American share, a still elevated Gulf risk premium, more value attached to non Hormuz origin and a European contract book being rebuilt as Russian LNG imports end. The professional question is not who replaces the missing aggregate; it is which supplier can offer a molecule, a contract and a route that all survive the same delivery date.
Sources: The Edge.
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