World Bank Global Outlook 2026

Report summary

The World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report, released in January 2026, highlights that the world economy showed unexpected resilience through 2025, but a slight slowdown is anticipated in 2026. Global growth is projected at 2.6% in 2026, easing from an estimated 2.7% in 2025. This moderation reflects fading one-off boosts, such as last year's surge in advance trade shipments, and softer demand in major economies. Inflation pressures are abating: global inflation is forecast to decline to about 2.6% in 2026, thanks to cooling labor markets and lower energy costs. Commodity prices are expected to soften further. In particular, oil prices, which averaged around $69 per barrel in 2025, are projected to fall to roughly $60 in 2026 amid increased supply from OPEC+ and weakening demand. By 2027, global growth may inch up to 2.7% as monetary easing gains traction and trade uncertainty diminishes. Even so, the 2020s remain on track to be the slowest-growing decade since the 1960s, underscoring challenges ahead. Risks are tilted to the downside: a flare-up in trade tensions, deteriorating financial sentiment, or other shocks could further dampen the outlook. Overall, 2025's robust rebound, supported by stockpiling and an AI-driven investment boom, has given way to a cautious 2026 outlook marked by more subdued trade and gradually easing price pressures.