UAE Non-Oil Orders Quicken as PMI Posts 54.8 and Dubai Index Hits Eight-Month High

By The Edge Research Team

UAE non-oil firms won new orders at a faster pace in October and export work grew fastest in two years, with the S&P Global UAE PMI at 54.8.

For UAE businesses and their customers, firmer demand now comes with the fastest rise in selling prices since the survey began in August 2009. In The Edge’s reading, orders that keep accelerating while charges climb this fast suggest demand strong enough to absorb higher prices for now. The compiler’s economist sees greater inflationary risks for the fourth quarter, yet firms’ year-ahead expectations are the highest since January.

The index is built from a panel of around 1,000 non-energy private sector companies, with October responses collected from 12 to 26 October. New orders carry 30% of its weight and output 25%, so the two together set more than half the headline.

Orders quicken and export work grows at its fastest in two years

New orders rose at a sharper pace than in September, helped by both new clients and repeat business. Part of the upturn came from abroad: new export work rose at the quickest rate in exactly two years.

Output kept rising strongly at the start of the fourth quarter, easing only marginally from September’s seven-month high. Firms tied the gains to construction, retail, tourism and manufacturing, while some cited regional conflict, competition and lower discretionary spending as restraints.

Purchasing activity rose at the sharpest pace in nine months as firms responded to demand. Stocks of inputs grew only marginally, at the slowest rate since July, because purchased items were often used quickly to fill sales.

Supplier performance improved by the most since June, with firms citing good local supplies of key items. The release links this to a continuing shift by domestic firms toward local vendors to offset disrupted maritime routes.

The headline index eased to 54.8 from 55.3 in September, a level the release still describes as a solid improvement. It names lower employment and looser supply chain conditions as the drags (faster deliveries count against the index, which inverts that measure), offset by gains in output, new orders and stocks of purchases.

UAE and Dubai PMI (index)

Seasonally adjusted; a reading above 50 signals an improvement on the previous month. September values as printed in the October release and as set out on 5 October.

Firms raise selling prices at a record pace as input costs climb

Output prices rose at the sharpest rate since the survey began, and panellists often linked the increases to spiralling operating costs and efforts to protect margins. In September the rise was already the steepest since May 2011, as set out on 5 October.

Input price inflation quickened to its fastest since June 2022, driven mainly by purchase costs. Firms reported paying more for raw materials, fuel, energy, freight, maintenance, storage and rent.

David Owen, Principal Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The findings point to greater inflationary risks for the UAE economy in Q4.” He pointed in particular to successive increases in petrol and diesel prices.

Hiring did not keep pace. Employment fell fractionally, the third decline in five months, as some firms cut headcount to control costs while others hired to meet rising sales. Backlogs of work rose sharply again as new orders outran capacity, though they built up at the softest rate in three months.

What the October UAE panel reported

Directions and comparisons as the October release describes them; the survey began in August 2009, so the output price reading is a series record.

Dubai’s index rises to an eight-month high

Dubai’s PMI rose to 54.6 from 54.5, its highest in eight months and a reading the release calls a strong improvement in conditions at the emirate’s non-oil companies. New business rose sharply, at the joint-fastest pace since February, and firms lifted output while trimming staff modestly.

Dubai firms also reported a record increase in selling prices, mostly passing rising input costs on to customers. Overall cost pressures were the fastest since June 2022. They grew more confident about future activity, but cost concerns kept stockpiling below September’s pace.

Across the UAE, expectations for activity over the coming year rose to their highest since January. Firms pointed to strong demand forecasts and, the compiler’s economist said, to hopes that improving regional conditions will lift sectors such as tourism.

The UAE tops five October readings across the Gulf and Egypt

The UAE reading is the highest of the five October PMIs released for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt and Qatar. Saudi Arabia came next at 54.0, and the four readings outside the UAE were set out on 3 November.

October PMIs, five economies (index)

Headline PMIs for the non-oil private sector (non-energy in Qatar), seasonally adjusted, as published on 3 and 4 November 2026; Saudi Arabia’s survey is sponsored by Riyad Bank. Ranked by October reading.

What to watch: The compiler’s calendar lists the November PMIs for Kuwait and Saudi Arabia at 04:15 GMT on 3 December, Egypt at 05:15 GMT and Qatar at 09:00 GMT; the UAE’s November release date is not yet listed.

Figures are from the S&P Global UAE PMI news release for October 2026, published at 04:15 GMT on 4 November 2026, and, for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt and Qatar, the October releases of 3 November; changes and comparisons not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.

Sources: S&P Global, Riyad Bank, The Edge.

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