US Housing Completions Drop 27.1 Percent on the Year While the Fall in Starts Fails the Bureau’s Own Test
Privately owned housing completions in the United States ran at an annual rate of 1,128,000 in August, 11.9 percent below July and 27.1 percent below August 2025, on figures published on 17 September. Housing starts came in at 1,275,000, down 2.6 percent on the month and 1.2 percent on the year, and building permits at 1,394,000, down 2.7 percent on the month but 3.5 percent above a year earlier.
| Series | August rate | On July | On August 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Building permits | 1,394,000 | -2.7% | +3.5% |
| Housing starts | 1,275,000 | -2.6% | -1.2% |
| Housing completions | 1,128,000 | -11.9% | -27.1% |
Seasonally adjusted annual rates. Both starts changes shown, and the single family starts change, fall inside a 90 percent confidence interval that includes zero. No completions change does. The bureau publishes no confidence intervals for permits.
The completions number is the solid one
Statistical significance splits the release cleanly. Every change in the starts series carries the bureau’s asterisk, meaning the 90 percent confidence interval includes zero and there is not enough evidence to say the change differs from zero at all. None of the completions changes carries it. So the 27.1 percent annual fall in completions is the firmest number in the release, and the 2.6 percent fall in starts is not, on the bureau’s own test.
Single family starts ran the other way from the totals. They rose 7.6 percent on the month to 918,000, though that change too is inside the interval, while single family permits fell 1.8 percent to 878,000 and single family completions fell 10.4 percent to 816,000. Buildings with 5 units or more ran at 344,000 starts, 467,000 permits and 302,000 completions.
| Segment | Permits | Starts | Completions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single family | 878,000 | 918,000 | 816,000 |
| 5 units or more | 467,000 | 344,000 | 302,000 |
| All privately owned | 1,394,000 | 1,275,000 | 1,128,000 |
August annual rates. The bureau publishes no percentage change for the 5 units or more series.
Why it matters: For the US housing cycle, completions are the line that reaches the market as supply, and they are down more than a quarter on the year. On our reading that is consistent with earlier weakness in starts now feeding through to completions, and it sits alongside permits that are still 3.5 percent above last year, which means the pipeline entering the system is holding up better than the pipeline leaving it, though the permits series is not tested for sampling error the way starts and completions are. The single family rebound in starts is the one hopeful line, and it is not statistically distinguishable from no change.
Outlook: The September report is due on 20 October. The bureau notes that preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates for all 3 series are revised by 3.8 percent or less on average, and that the response rate behind these figures was 75.8 percent.
Sources: US Census Bureau, Department of Housing and Urban Development.
