Egypt Puts Growth at 5.1 Percent for the Fiscal Year and Readies a Transformation Programme for Launch
Egypt’s economy grew 5.1 percent in the financial year 2025/2026, against 4.4 percent the year before, and the government says that beat the forecasts of major international institutions. The figures were reviewed at an expanded meeting on the National Economic Transformation Programme on 17 September, at which Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said the programme is being finalised in full coordination with the central bank and will go to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi before it is launched.
What is driving the number
Growth came from several sectors, with industry and services such as telecommunications and information technology named. The meeting also cited inflation at 12.7 percent in August. The statistical agency’s own release puts annual headline inflation for the whole country at 12.7 percent in August against 13.0 percent in July, with the consumer price index holding at the July level, so this is an annual rate that eased on the month rather than the monthly inflation the meeting readout calls it. The year earlier comparison the readout offers does not hold: annual inflation in August 2025 was 11.2 percent.
The programme itself is not yet public. Madbouly said the government is reviewing and verifying the data and figures supplied by ministries in order to finalise the targets and prepare a final draft for the President ahead of the official launch, and he closed the meeting by asking for thorough verification before it goes up.
| Measure | Latest | Prior |
|---|---|---|
| Economic growth, 2025/2026 | 5.1% | 4.4% |
| Inflation, August | 12.7% | 13.0% |
As presented at the meeting of 17 September.
5 sectors and more than 45 meetings
The stated ambition goes past a growth rate. The release says the government’s targets extend to a transformation programme built on competitiveness and on expanding private investment in 5 sectors: industry, agriculture and food processing, tourism, telecommunications and information technology, and energy security. The stated aim is to translate macroeconomic stability into sustainable growth that generates exports and improves living standards.
Planning and Economic Development Minister Ahmed Rostom said 11 meetings had been held with ministers and more than 34 technical meetings on reform measures and sector priorities, which is at least 45 in total on our calculation. Those meetings covered the structure and productivity of the economy, public finances and financing capacity, external indicators, human capital and demographics, and institutional reform. He said the methodology rests on resilience and crisis response, a productive and competitive private sector, more jobs and better quality of life, and that it builds on the National Dialogue and earlier structural reforms.
Why it matters: For Egypt, the 5.1 percent print is the headline, but the programme behind it is the thing to watch, because it is the framework that is supposed to convert stabilisation into investment. On our reading the sequencing is the tell: the data is still being verified, the draft is not final, and the launch waits on the President, so what exists today is a growth number and a set of priorities rather than a policy in force. The 5 named sectors are where private capital is being invited.
Outlook: The final version goes to the political leadership and is then launched, with no date given. The Planning Minister first used the 5.1 percent figure publicly on 7 September, at the investment summit in Dubai, and repeated it on 8, 9 and 11 September, so the number had been in circulation for 10 days before this meeting put it alongside the programme. The 11 September item is the only one of the 4 that prints the 4.4 percent comparison for the previous year.
Sources: State Information Service, Ministry of Planning and Economic Development, Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics.
