US Jobless Claims Fall to 196,000 as the Insured Unemployment Rate Slips to 1.1 Percent
New claims for US unemployment benefits fell to 196,000 in the week to 12 September, down 10,000 from an unrevised 206,000 the week before, figures published on 17 September show. The 4 week average fell 2,750 to 203,250, and the insured unemployment rate, which measures people already drawing benefits as a share of covered employment, eased 0.1 percentage point to 1.1 percent.
| Measure | Latest | Prior week |
|---|---|---|
| Initial claims | 196,000 | 206,000 |
| 4 week average, initial claims | 203,250 | 206,000 |
| Insured unemployment | 1,730,000 | 1,769,000 |
| Insured unemployment rate | 1.1% | 1.2% |
Seasonally adjusted. The prior week’s initial claims figure is unrevised; the insured unemployment level was revised down by 5,000. The release states the insured unemployment rate as a fall of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate rather than printing that rate, so the 1.2 percent shown here is derived.
The raw numbers fell faster than the season expected
Before seasonal adjustment, actual initial claims came to 152,286, a fall of 24,630 or 13.9 percent on the week, against a fall of 16,515 or 9.3 percent that the seasonal factors had expected. A year earlier the comparable week produced 195,433 claims, so the unadjusted count is 22.1 percent lower than the same week of 2025 on our calculation.
Continued weeks claimed across all programmes tell the same story. The total for the week to 29 August was 1,694,367, down 63,781 on the week and 7.6 percent below the 1,834,461 of the comparable week a year earlier on our calculation. No state was triggered on for the extended benefits programme.
Where the claims are
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week to 29 August were in New Jersey and Puerto Rico, both at 2.6 percent, then Massachusetts at 2.0 percent and Rhode Island and Washington at 1.9 percent. In the week to 5 September, the largest increases in new claims came in Michigan, up 2,075, and California, up 1,967, while New York recorded the largest fall at 3,790.
Why it matters: For the rate debate, this is the series that would show a labour market cracking first, and it is not cracking. Initial claims at 196,000 are below the 4 week average, the unadjusted count is 22.1 percent below the same week last year on our calculation, and the insured unemployment rate is at 1.1 percent. On our reading, taken on its own this release offers little evidence of a pickup in layoffs and does not strengthen the labour market case for easier policy.
Outlook: The figures here are advance estimates. The insured unemployment level for the prior week was already revised down by 5,000 in this release, and the 4 week average of that series with it.
Sources: US Department of Labor.
