US Market Wrap 31 August: Dow Falls 0.70 Percent as Energy Jumps 2.10 Percent, PG&E and Edison Plunge After California Lawmakers Block Liability Proposal
US stocks fell Monday as crude extended its weekend jump following the strike on Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island and Iran’s response against US bases in Jordan, and as investors weighed a sharp jump in market-implied odds of a September rate increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.70 percent, the steepest decline among the five major benchmarks; the S&P 500 fell 0.33 percent and the Nasdaq Composite 0.12 percent, while the Nasdaq 100 was the session’s only gainer among the five, adding 0.08 percent. Energy was the best-performing S&P 500 sector by a wide margin, up 2.10 percent, while Utilities was among the day’s steepest sector decliners after California lawmakers blocked a proposal that would have limited utilities’ financial liability for wildfires their equipment ignites, hitting PG&E and Edison International hard.
A Mixed Session Across the Five Major Benchmarks
The Nasdaq 100 was the lone gainer, adding 0.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.12 percent, the S&P 500 0.33 percent, the Russell 2000 0.54 percent and the Dow 0.70 percent, a spread of 0.78 percentage points between the board’s best and worst performer, on our calculation. Despite Monday’s decline, the Dow closed out its fifth straight winning month.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | 29,456.97 | +0.08% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,370.89 | -0.12% |
| S&P 500 | 7,686.14 | -0.33% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,956.45 | -0.54% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,185.90 | -0.70% |
Closes for Monday 31 August 2026, ranked by change.
Energy Leads Every Sector While Utilities and Communication Services Lag
Energy was the S&P 500’s standout performer, up 2.10 percent as crude held its weekend gain; Information Technology was the only other sector in positive territory, adding 0.30 percent. The remaining nine sectors fell, led down by Communication Services at 1.63 percent and Utilities at 1.18 percent, a spread of 3.73 percentage points between the board’s best and worst sector, on our calculation.
Utilities’ decline was concentrated in two names rather than spread across the sector: PG&E fell 20.06 percent to $13.27, a new 52-week low, and Edison International fell 23.07 percent to $53.98, both after California lawmakers blocked a proposal that would have limited the amount individuals could seek from utilities whose equipment ignites a wildfire. Selected large-cap peers were little changed by comparison, indicating that the sector’s decline was driven primarily by PG&E and Edison rather than a broad utility selloff.
| S&P 500 sector | Change |
|---|---|
| Energy | +2.10% |
| Information Technology | +0.30% |
| Consumer Staples | -0.33% |
| Health Care | -0.42% |
| Financials | -0.71% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -0.72% |
| Real Estate | -0.77% |
| Materials | -0.84% |
| Industrials | -1.16% |
| Utilities | -1.18% |
| Communication Services | -1.63% |
Sector changes for Monday 31 August 2026, ranked high to low.
Fed Odds Jump as Officials Meet at the G20
Market-implied odds of a September rate increase rose to 66.1 percent on the CME FedWatch tool, according to CNBC, up from the 57.5 percent this wrap reported this past Friday following Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks. The move came as finance officials met at the G20 finance ministerial in Asheville, North Carolina: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued against raising rates into what he called a “supply shock” and said core inflation “has remained very, very restrained.” Bessent separately predicted Iran’s economy could collapse within weeks, while saying that collapse was not a prerequisite for a breakthrough with Tehran — his own forecast, not this wrap’s assessment. Warsh’s own remarks at the same event were limited to general growth and investment themes, without a new policy signal beyond Friday’s speech.
The US Treasury’s official daily par yield curve for 31 August, published after Monday’s close, was mostly higher than Friday. The 6-month yield fell 3 basis points and the 2-year was unchanged, while the other five maturities shown rose by 1 to 3 basis points.
| Maturity | 31 Aug | 28 Aug | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | 3.85% | 3.84% | +1 bp |
| 3 Month | 3.91% | 3.90% | +1 bp |
| 6 Month | 3.99% | 4.02% | -3 bp |
| 1 Year | 4.16% | 4.15% | +1 bp |
| 2 Year | 4.34% | 4.34% | unchanged |
| 10 Year | 4.75% | 4.73% | +2 bp |
| 30 Year | 5.25% | 5.22% | +3 bp |
Official daily par yield curve, US Department of the Treasury, derived from indicative bid-side quotations at or near 3:30pm on each trading day. Changes are on our calculation, by subtraction.
Commodities, the Dollar and Crypto
West Texas Intermediate was quoted 3.03 percent higher, on our calculation, and Brent crude 2.66 percent higher, as reported, both extending the move that had already lifted crude through the Asian and European sessions. Gold eased 0.20 percent and silver added 0.14 percent, on our calculation, a divergence from Monday’s earlier session when both had fallen together.
| Commodity | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude, NYMEX (Oct’26), dollars a barrel | $85.94 | +3.03% |
| Brent Crude, ICE (Nov’26), dollars a barrel | $90.44 | +2.66% |
| Silver, COMEX (Sep’26), dollars an ounce | $66.53 | +0.14% |
| Gold, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | $4,501.00 | -0.20% |
Quotes captured shortly after the US close on 31 August 2026. These are quoted levels, not exchange settlements. WTI, gold and silver changes are on our calculation against the quoted levels in Friday’s 28 August edition of our Commodities Wrap. Brent’s change is its own reported change against its new front-month contract’s previous close, since the contract rolled to November since Friday.
The dollar eased broadly: the US Dollar Index fell 0.27 percent while the euro rose 0.26 percent and the pound 0.07 percent against it; the yen was the exception, easing 0.19 percent against the dollar. The CBOE Volatility Index jumped 3.40 percent, its steepest move on this board, and Bitcoin added 0.32 percent.
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | 14.92 | +3.40% |
| Bitcoin, dollars | $79,109.20 | +0.32% |
| Euro/dollar | 1.1614 | +0.26% |
| Pound/dollar | 1.3543 | +0.07% |
| Dollar/yen | 159.73 | -0.19% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.435 | -0.27% |
Intraday quotes from the same capture, shortly after the US close on 31 August 2026, measured against each instrument’s own previous close.
Elsewhere Today
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MSX 30 (Oman) | 7,604.011 | +0.35% |
| Nomu Parallel Market (Saudi Arabia) | 21,747.26 | -0.11% |
| EGX 30 (Egypt) | 54,866.04 | -0.13% |
| Kuwait All Share (Kuwait) | 8,897.40 | -0.16% |
| MSCI Tadawul 30 (Saudi Arabia) | 1,499.38 | -0.17% |
| Bahrain All Share (Bahrain) | 1,935.96 | -0.20% |
| Premier Market (Kuwait) | 9,288.30 | -0.20% |
| ASE Index (Jordan) | 4,000.27 | -0.20% |
| Tadawul All Share (Saudi Arabia) | 11,127.08 | -0.28% |
| FTSE ADX General (Abu Dhabi) | 10,007.44 | -0.37% |
| QE Index (Qatar) | 9,806.85 | -0.57% |
| QE All Share (Qatar) | 3,849.99 | -0.60% |
| DFM General (Dubai) | 5,836.00 | -0.79% |
| EGX 100 EWI (Egypt) | 27,262.44 | -1.51% |
| EGX 70 EWI (Egypt) | 20,893.38 | -2.06% |
Monday 31 August 2026 closes, carried from our Middle East Market Wrap of 31 August 2026, for reference.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| PSI 20 (Portugal) | 9,437.18 | +0.08% |
| FTSE MIB (Italy) | 52,612.69 | -0.01% |
| IBEX 35 (Spain) | 19,974.10 | -0.34% |
| AEX (Netherlands) | 1,105.77 | -0.59% |
| BEL 20 (Belgium) | 5,834.28 | -0.59% |
| Stoxx Europe 600 (Europe) | 651.10 | -0.62% |
| OMXS30 (Sweden) | 3,309.18 | -0.66% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,334.50 | -0.79% |
| SMI (Switzerland) | 14,286.43 | -0.79% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 (euro area) | 6,420.16 | -1.01% |
| DAX (Germany), Xetra close | 26,258.11 | -1.17% |
Monday 31 August 2026 closes, carried from our Europe Market Wrap of 31 August 2026, for reference. The FTSE 100 is absent because the London Stock Exchange was closed for the Summer Bank Holiday.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Straits Times (Singapore) | 5,755.36 | +0.97% |
| Shanghai Composite (China) | 3,986.30 | +0.86% |
| Kospi (South Korea) | 6,820.02 | +0.46% |
| Shenzhen Component (China) | 14,015.00 | +0.44% |
| Topix (Japan) | 4,156.29 | +0.23% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 25,566.99 | -0.07% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 66,311.93 | -0.14% |
| S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) | 9,076.00 | -0.18% |
| Nifty 50 (India) | 24,080.40 | -0.39% |
| Taiex (Taiwan) | 46,128.47 | -0.44% |
Monday 31 August 2026 closes, carried from our Asia Market Wrap of 31 August 2026, for reference.
Why It Matters
Monday’s two clearest stories pulled in opposite directions and neither was really about the broad market. Energy’s gain continued the crude move seen across every regional wrap after Sunday’s Larak Island strike, rather than reflecting a new US-session development. Utilities’ decline was the reverse: a California-specific proposal that hit two stocks hard, with limited read-through across the selected large-cap peers checked. What was broader was the jump in September rate-hike odds to 66.1 percent; on our reading, that repricing is a more plausible explanation for the Dow and Russell 2000 both underperforming the Nasdaq 100 than either sector story alone, though a single session’s price action cannot establish that on its own.
Outlook
Tuesday brings two US data points ahead of the Fed’s own calendar: the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, both due at 10am ET. The G20 finance ministerial in Asheville also continues Tuesday, the euro area’s flash August inflation estimate is due the same day from Eurostat, and London and the UK gilt market reopen after Monday’s bank holiday. The US August employment report follows on Friday 4 September, ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on 15 and 16 September, which will test whether Monday’s jump in hike odds holds up against a full week of new data.
Sources: CNBC, US index and sector closes, and commodity, currency, VIX and crypto quotes captured shortly after the 31 August 2026 close; its coverage of the G20 finance ministerial in Asheville, North Carolina; its coverage of PG&E and Edison International; United States Department of the Treasury, official daily par yield curve, 31 August 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2026 release schedule; Institute for Supply Management, PMI report release-date calendar; The Edge, Commodities Wrap, Middle East Market Wrap, Europe Market Wrap and Asia Market Wrap, all of 31 August 2026.
