US Treasury Keeps Coupon Auction Sizes Steady in 125 Billion Dollar August Refunding
The United States Treasury will offer 125 billion dollars of coupon securities through three auctions in the week of 11 August and will keep auction sizes unchanged, according to the quarterly refunding statement of Brian Smith, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance, issued at 8:30am on 5 August 2026.
| Security | Size | Auction date | Maturity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-year note | 58 billion dollars | 11 August 2026 | 15 August 2029 |
| 10-year note | 42 billion dollars | 12 August 2026 | 15 August 2036 |
| 30-year bond | 25 billion dollars | 13 August 2026 | 15 August 2056 |
| Total | 125 billion dollars | All 1:00pm EDT | Settle 17 August 2026 |
The three auctions refund approximately 96.3 billion dollars of privately held Treasury notes and bonds maturing on 15 August and raise approximately 28.7 billion dollars in new cash. The new securities settle on Monday 17 August, 15 August falling on a Saturday. Treasury stated that “based on current projected borrowing needs, Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.”
Inflation-protected issuance is also unchanged, with an 8 billion dollar reopening of the 30-year TIPS in August, a 19 billion dollar reopening of the 10-year in September and a 26 billion dollar new 5-year in October. Benchmark bill sizes will be maintained, and Treasury flagged the possibility of a short-dated cash management bill around the end of August.
On buybacks, Treasury said it intends to purchase “up to 38 billion dollars in off-the-run securities across buckets for liquidity support and up to 25 billion dollars in the 1-month to 2-year maturity bucket for cash management purposes.”
The cash position is the moving part. Treasury expects a cash balance of 950 billion dollars at the end of September and flagged a possible peak in the Treasury General Account of “1.05 trillion (plus or minus 50 billion)” in late October. That sits alongside the borrowing estimates published on 3 August, which put July to September net marketable borrowing at 739 billion dollars on the 950 billion dollar end-September assumption, and October to December at 628 billion dollars on an 850 billion dollar end-December assumption. The July to September figure was described as “68 billion higher than announced in May 2026, primarily due to lower projected net cash flows, partially offset by the higher-than-assumed beginning-of-quarter cash balance.” In the April to June quarter Treasury borrowed 190 billion dollars and ended with a cash balance of 919 billion dollars.
| Net marketable borrowing | Amount | Assumed end-quarter cash |
|---|---|---|
| April–June 2026 (actual) | 190 billion dollars | 919 billion dollars (actual) |
| July–September 2026 | 739 billion dollars | 950 billion dollars |
| October–December 2026 | 628 billion dollars | 850 billion dollars |
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, which met on 4 August under Chair Jason S. Granet and Vice Chair E. Alexander Schiller, published its report the same day as the refunding statement. The Committee said “the Treasury General Account (TGA) is expected to end Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 at approximately 950 billion dollars and 850 billion dollars, respectively,” consistent with Treasury’s own assumptions.
On the medium-term path the Committee was more cautious. Its report stated that “the outlook for the remainder of FY26 suggests Treasury remains adequately funded, although the funding gap begins to widen in FY27 and increases further in FY28,” and added that “the Committee continues to believe that current projections could warrant increases in coupon issuance in FY27.” For the quarter immediately ahead, however, “the Committee recommended keeping nominal coupon, FRN, and TIPS auction sizes unchanged.” The Committee was also asked to consider secondary-market transaction transparency and intraday repo.
Why it matters: The message from both documents is continuity now and pressure later. Treasury has committed, in unusually direct language, to holding coupon sizes for at least several quarters, which reduces near-term uncertainty around nominal coupon auction sizes through the rest of the calendar year. On our reading, the tension is that its own advisory committee has put a marker down for larger coupon issuance in fiscal 2027, so the adjustment is deferred rather than avoided. For Gulf reserve managers and sovereign funds holding United States duration, the practical consequence is a stable auction calendar into the fourth quarter, with the risk of heavier long-end supply concentrated in 2027.
Looking ahead: The 3-year, 10-year and 30-year auctions take place on 11, 12 and 13 August, settling on 17 August. The next quarterly refunding announcement is due on 4 November 2026.
Sources: United States Department of the Treasury, Quarterly Refunding Statement of Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance Brian Smith, 5 August 2026; Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee report to the Secretary of the Treasury, meeting of 4 August 2026; United States Department of the Treasury, Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates, 3 August 2026.
