The Week Ahead 20 to 26 September: Flash PMIs Follow Fed Week and Three Central Banks Decide
The week after three central banks decided is the week the data answers back. Wednesday’s flash purchasing managers’ surveys for the euro area, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the United States are the first broad activity releases after the Federal Reserve’s rise, the Bank of England’s hold and the Bank of Japan’s increase, and on Thursday the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank and Norges Bank publish their own decisions into that picture. The same Thursday, the Bank of Japan’s new rates take effect and Japan’s flash PMI publishes, the first activity survey out after the vote.
The United States
The Committee itself is quiet: the Federal Reserve’s calendar shows no meeting until 27 and 28 October, and the week’s only scheduled appearances on its own calendar are Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on discount window modernization and Treasury market functioning on Tuesday and Governor Michael Barr on housing on Wednesday. The heavyweight releases sit just outside the week, with the third estimate of second quarter growth, August personal income and spending, and the advance trade report all dated 30 September on their agencies’ schedules.
Inside the week, the flash PMI publishes on Wednesday, the second quarter international transactions report and August new home sales on Thursday, and advance durable goods orders for August on Friday. The Treasury’s tentative auction schedule puts the 2 year note on Tuesday, the 5 year on Wednesday and the 7 year on Thursday, a front-loaded slate that lands in the middle of the argument over the terminal rate we covered on Friday, with the 2 year par yield at 4.76 percent and the 10 year at 5.01 percent on the Treasury’s official 18 September curve. The weekly claims and petroleum reports follow their published weekly rules, Thursday and Wednesday respectively.
Europe
Thursday is the dense day. The Swiss National Bank publishes its monetary policy assessment at 09:30 Swiss time, the Riksbank publishes its decision at 09:30, the morning after Wednesday’s meeting in Gothenburg, per its own press release, and Norges Bank publishes its policy rate decision and Monetary Policy Report at 10:00, three policy decisions taken with a full view of what the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan did last week. The European Central Bank does not meet, but its weekly schedule carries the Economic Bulletin on Thursday, August money supply on Friday, and a run of scheduled speeches through the week.
On the data side, the European Commission’s flash consumer confidence for September lands Tuesday, the four flash PMIs Wednesday, Germany’s Ifo business climate and both French confidence surveys Thursday, and Germany’s GfK consumer climate Friday. The United Kingdom’s dated entry is August public sector finances on Tuesday, with its retail sales already published last Friday.
Asia
Japan’s contribution is the calendar’s quietest headline and its most concrete: the rate structure the Bank of Japan voted on 18 September, a 1.25 percent rate on the complementary deposit facility and a 1.5 percent basic loan rate, takes effect on Thursday 24 September, the same day S&P Global’s calendar dates Japan’s flash PMI. The published record of the meeting follows outside the week, with the Summary of Opinions on 1 October and the minutes on 5 November, per the Bank’s schedule. August national consumer prices came out last Friday, before the window.
China’s September loan prime rate fixing falls on Monday under the published rule of the rate’s authorized publisher, which sets the quote submission on the 20th of each month, postponed for holidays; 20 September is a Sunday. The statistics bureau’s own calendar is otherwise empty until industrial profits on the 28th, just outside the week. Korea’s central bank does not meet until 22 October, per its published meeting dates.
The Middle East
Saudi Arabia is the region’s dated calendar this week. GASTAT’s statistical calendar carries short-term business statistics for July on Sunday, the construction cost index for August on Tuesday, and the July international trade report on Thursday, the last of these the region’s most market-relevant number of the week. The Saudi central bank’s weekly points of sale and money supply series follow their published weekly rule, Tuesday and Thursday. Turkey’s monetary policy committee does not meet until 22 October, per its published 2026 schedule. Elsewhere in the Gulf, no advance release calendars were readable on the statistical agencies’ own pages, so the region’s dated rows are Saudi ones.
The week’s confirmed dates
| Date | Event | Source of the date |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday 20 September | Short-term business statistics for July, Saudi Arabia | GASTAT statistical calendar |
| Tuesday 22 September | Flash consumer confidence for September, EU and euro area | European Commission survey calendar |
| Tuesday 22 September | Public sector finances for August, United Kingdom | ONS release calendar |
| Tuesday 22 September | Balance of payments and international investment position for the second quarter, Switzerland | SNB event schedule |
| Tuesday 22 September | Construction cost index for August, Saudi Arabia | GASTAT statistical calendar |
| Wednesday 23 September | Flash PMIs for September: euro area, Germany, France, United Kingdom, United States | S&P Global release calendar |
| Wednesday 23 September | Riksbank monetary policy meeting, Sweden | Riksbank press release |
| Thursday 24 September | Riksbank monetary policy decision, Sweden | Riksbank press release |
| Thursday 24 September | Flash PMI for September, Japan | S&P Global release calendar |
| Thursday 24 September | SNB monetary policy assessment, Switzerland | SNB event schedule |
| Thursday 24 September | Norges Bank policy rate decision and Monetary Policy Report, Norway | Norges Bank calendar |
| Thursday 24 September | Ifo business climate, Germany | Ifo survey page |
| Thursday 24 September | Business climate and consumer confidence for September, France | INSEE release pages |
| Thursday 24 September | ECB Economic Bulletin | ECB weekly schedule |
| Thursday 24 September | International transactions and investment position for the second quarter, United States | BEA release schedule |
| Thursday 24 September | New home sales for August, United States | Census Bureau release calendar |
| Thursday 24 September | International trade for July, Saudi Arabia | GASTAT statistical calendar |
| Friday 25 September | Advance durable goods orders for August, United States | Census Bureau release calendar |
| Friday 25 September | GfK consumer climate, Germany | NIM publication dates |
| Friday 25 September | Euro area monetary developments for August | ECB weekly schedule |
Every date was read on the schedule published by the body that will publish the number. Release times are not carried. Weekly series that publish under a stated weekly rule rather than a dated calendar entry, and scheduled speeches and auctions, are carried in the prose above, not in the table.
Why it matters: The question the week answers is transmission. Three major central banks decided last week and the flash PMIs on Wednesday are the first broad activity releases on the other side of those decisions, while three more central banks publish decisions on Thursday with that evidence one day old. For the Gulf, the dated number is Thursday’s Saudi trade report, and the backdrop is a dollar curve whose 2 year yield ended last week at 4.76 percent and whose 10 year sits at 5.01 percent on the Treasury’s official 18 September curve, as we published: with most regional currencies pegged to the dollar and Kuwait managing against a basket, that is the funding environment the region’s banks and borrowers carry into the fourth quarter.
Outlook: Our Middle East wrap returns Sunday and the five-wrap week runs through Friday. The heavyweights queue up for the week after: the third estimate of American growth, August personal income and spending, and the advance trade report on 30 September, China’s industrial profits on the 28th and its PMIs on the 30th, all on their agencies’ own calendars. The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions on 1 October is the first read on how close the September vote really was.
Sources: Federal Reserve, US Department of the Treasury, US Department of Labor, US Energy Information Administration, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, S&P Global, European Commission, European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank, Riksbank, Ifo Institute, INSEE, NIM, ONS, Bank of Japan, National Interbank Funding Center, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Bank of Korea, GASTAT, SAMA, Central Bank of Turkey, The Edge.
