The Week Ahead: The Federal Reserve Decides on 29 July, US Growth and Inflation Data Land, and the Megacap Technology Earnings Peak

By The Edge Research Team

The wait is over. After two previews that pointed to it, the Federal Reserve’s July meeting arrives, and it lands in the same 48 hours as the first reading on second-quarter US growth, the June inflation gauge the central bank watches most closely, and the peak of the megacap technology earnings season. The rate decision comes on Wednesday, the growth and inflation data on Thursday, the Bank of Japan on Friday, and Microsoft, Meta and Amazon all report within the stretch, per the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bank of Japan and company investor relations. One thread runs through it: this week’s oil round-trip, above 100 dollars a barrel at midweek and back below by Friday, has put the inflation question at the center of what the Fed, the data and the earnings must now speak to, our reading.

There is a timing wrinkle worth holding in mind. The second-quarter growth figure and the June inflation reading largely predate the late-July oil surge, so they set the pre-shock baseline rather than measure the shock, while the Fed’s tone and the earnings guidance are the first forward reads on whether higher energy costs are reaching prices and spending, our reading. The sequencing adds to the point: the Fed decides on Wednesday, a day before the growth and inflation data, so Thursday’s figures cannot shape the July decision but will test the message and reset expectations for September, our reading. The meeting also brings no new set of economic projections or interest-rate dot plot, per the Federal Reserve, which places the weight on any change in the statement and on the chair’s press conference.

Monday is light. The June durable goods orders report is due at 08:30 New York time, per the Census Bureau, a read on business investment before the energy shock, with the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey to follow, per the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The heavy releases are back-loaded into the second half of the week.

Tuesday brings the Conference Board July consumer confidence index at 10:00 New York time, per the Conference Board, which may capture part of the month’s move in headline and pump prices, while the Federal Reserve policy meeting opens behind closed doors.

Wednesday is the pivot. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 14:00 New York time, with the chair’s press conference at 14:30, per the Federal Reserve. Markets had leaned toward no change this month, per CNBC, so the weight falls on how the statement and the chair frame the oil-driven inflation risk and the path into September rather than on the rate itself, our reading. Because most Gulf states peg their currencies to the dollar, from the Saudi riyal to the UAE dirham and the Qatari riyal, their central banks typically move in step with the Fed, which makes the decision a regional event as much as an American one; Kuwait is the exception, its dinar linked to an undisclosed basket that leaves the central bank more room, though US rates still weigh, our reading. After the US close, Microsoft and Meta report results, per their investor relations, opening the busiest stretch of megacap technology earnings.

Thursday is the data peak. The advance estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product and the June personal income and spending report, which carries the personal consumption expenditures price index, both publish at 08:30 New York time, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis, alongside the weekly jobless claims, per the Department of Labor. Together they give the clearest read yet on whether US growth and inflation were cooling before the oil move. The Bank of Japan opens its own two-day meeting the same day, and after the US close Amazon reports, per its investor relations, with Apple also among the megacaps scheduled this week, per CNBC.

Friday closes the week abroad and at home. The Bank of Japan announces its rate decision in the Tokyo session, per the Bank of Japan, the first major central-bank verdict after the Fed. In the United States, the second-quarter employment cost index, a wage gauge the Fed follows closely, is due at 08:30 New York time, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for July at 10:00, per the University of Michigan.

By the weekend the market will know how the Fed reads the inflation risk, whether second-quarter growth and June inflation confirm a cooling, and how the largest technology companies see the artificial-intelligence spending cycle. Attention then turns to Sunday, 2 August, when the seven countries in the voluntary output adjustments, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, meet to review the market and the next production step, per OPEC, with the US July employment report to follow on Friday, 7 August. For the region, most Gulf markets reopen on Sunday, 26 July, while the UAE trades Monday to Friday, and the read-through is direct: the Fed decision feeds regional monetary conditions through the dollar pegs, the oil price and the coming producers’ meeting bear on the producing economies’ revenues and on the import bills of Egypt and Jordan, and the second-quarter earnings season runs on for regional blue chips, our reading.

Table – the week’s calendar, times US Eastern unless noted:

Note: dates and times are drawn from the published calendars of the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Census Bureau, the Conference Board, the University of Michigan and the Bank of Japan, from company investor relations, and from CNBC; times are US Eastern unless stated and are subject to change.

Sources: Federal Reserve; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bank of Japan; OPEC; company investor relations; CNBC.

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