Egypt Expects Tourism Revenue Above 20 Billion Dollars in 2026 as Receipts Keep Climbing

By The Edge Research Team

Egypt’s Minister of Tourism and Antiquities Sherif Fathi expects the sector’s revenue to grow 30 percent by the end of 2026 and exceed 20 billion dollars, with arrivals reaching 20 million tourists, he told CNBC in an interview published on 11 October. The official record supports the direction of travel: tourism receipts in Egypt’s balance of payments grew at double-digit rates in each of the four official releases covering 2024/25 and the first nine months of 2025/26, reaching 14.4 billion dollars in the nine months to March 2026.

A 20 Billion Dollar Year Against the Official Record

The Central Bank of Egypt counts tourism revenue on a July to June fiscal year. On that basis receipts rose 16.3 percent to 16.7 billion dollars in 2024/25, from 14.4 billion a year earlier.

The 2025/26 fiscal year, which ended in June, was running ahead of the one before through March. In July to March 2025/26 tourism brought in 14.4 billion dollars, 14.9 percent more than the 12.5 billion of the same nine months a year earlier. That is 86.2 percent of the entire 2024/25 total in three quarters, and 1.9 billion dollars of new revenue year on year, on our calculation. The first half alone, July to December 2025, delivered 10.2 billion dollars, up 17.3 percent, adding 1.5 billion dollars against the same half of 2024, on our calculation.

The minister’s forecast covers the calendar year, which straddles two fiscal years: January to June 2026 closes out 2025/26, and July to December 2026 opens 2026/27. The official calendar-year total is not printed in these releases, so the base behind his 30 percent cannot be matched to a published figure.

Egypt tourism revenue in the balance of payments

Central Bank of Egypt balance of payments releases for 2024/25 and for July to September, July to December and July to March of 2025/26. The fiscal year runs July to June; the full 2025/26 year has not yet been published. Percentage changes are as published by the central bank.

More Nights, Steady Spending per Night

In both periods with published nights, the growth came from volume. Tourist nights rose to 179.3 million in 2024/25 from 154.1 million, an increase of 16.4 percent on our calculation, almost exactly the 16.3 percent rise in revenue. Revenue per tourist night was 93 dollars in both 2024/25 and 2023/24, on our calculation, which suggests the extra money came mainly from more nights spent in the country rather than from higher spending per night.

The pattern continued into 2025/26. In July to September 2025 tourist nights climbed to 58.7 million from 51.6 million, up 13.8 percent on our calculation, matching the 13.8 percent rise in revenue for the quarter to 5.5 billion dollars.

Tourist nights behind the revenue

Nights as published in the same balance of payments releases; changes and revenue per night are our calculation.

Tourism’s Weight in Egypt’s External Accounts

In July to March 2025/26 tourism’s 14.4 billion dollars was 4.5 times the 3.2 billion dollars of Suez Canal transit receipts and 110.8 percent of net foreign direct investment of 13.0 billion dollars, on our calculation. Remittances from Egyptians working abroad were the one larger inflow among these, at 34.9 billion dollars; tourism equalled 41.3 percent of that flow.

Tourism revenue was equivalent to 30.1 percent of the 47.8 billion dollar merchandise trade deficit over the nine months and to 98.6 percent of the 14.6 billion dollar current account deficit, on our calculation. Higher tourism and canal receipts lifted the services surplus 19.2 percent to 12.9 billion dollars in the same period.

Tourism against other foreign currency inflows, July to March 2025/26

Amounts from the July to March 2025/26 balance of payments release; ratios are our calculation. Tourism is a gross services receipt and net FDI a net financial account flow, so the ratios show scale only.

Growth Still Positive After a Strong First Quarter

The minister said the sector is currently growing at 4 to 5 percent, compared with growth near 18 percent in the first quarter of the year. He said the crisis in the region has raised living and travel costs in many of the countries that send tourists to Egypt, alongside higher airline operating costs. He described 20 million tourists as a good figure, though below earlier government expectations.

He also gave figures for the Grand Egyptian Museum: between 4.5 and 5 million visitors in the year since it opened, with a daily average of 15,000. The ministry is not seeking to raise daily visitor numbers for now, he said, in order to protect the quality of the visit.

Why it matters: Tourism revenue is one of the two receipts the central bank credits for the larger services surplus in the nine months to March, and over that period it brought in more than net foreign direct investment. A 20 billion dollar year would equal 34.9 percent of the provisional net international reserves of 57,348.2 million dollars reported for the end of September 2026, on our calculation.

Outlook: The next official test is the full 2025/26 balance of payments, which will show whether the 14.9 percent pace recorded through March carried into the April to June quarter. The July to September 2026 figures will then be the first official read on the second half of the calendar year covered by the minister’s forecast. With nights rising in line with revenue and spending per night steady, the arithmetic of a 20 billion dollar year rests on visitor volume staying firm through the final quarter of the year.

Sources: Central Bank of Egypt, CNBC, The Edge.

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