Emerging Markets See $33.8bn of Portfolio Outflows in October, the Most Since March

By The Edge Research Team

Foreign investors withdrew a net $33.8bn from emerging market stocks and bonds in October, the largest monthly outflow since March, the Institute of International Finance said on 5 November.

September also brought net selling, and October’s was the heavier of the two months. The institute now puts September’s outflow at $19.3bn, so October’s was $14.5bn larger. In The Edge’s reading, October is a firm signal of direction for emerging market portfolios rather than a final count, because the tracker’s early readings are revised.

A year earlier the direction was the reverse, with net inflows of $27.4bn in October last year. That is a swing of $61.2bn between the two Octobers.

September and October both bring net selling

Taken together, September and October drained a net $53.1bn from emerging market portfolios, on the figures in the tracker’s latest edition.

Before September, the last net outflow was in June, at $17.8bn according to the July edition. The September and October editions then put the July and August inflows at $24.9bn and $11.4bn.

In its August edition, the institute said July marked a clear break from the run of outflows in late spring. It read the stress as concentrated in Asian equity markets, and as losing intensity rather than spreading into fixed income.

October’s outflow also tops the other monthly outflows the public summaries show since March. May lost $25.2bn on the latest reading, and September’s revised figure is $19.3bn.

2026 splits evenly between inflows and outflows

On the public summaries, 2026 has divided evenly so far. January, February (the month inferred for the institute’s March edition), April, July and August brought net inflows, while March, May, June, September and October brought net outflows.

January was the strongest January on record, at $98.8bn, according to the February edition. Debt and equity both contributed, and the reading marked a sharp acceleration from December. April rebounded to $70.6bn after what the institute called an abrupt reversal in March.

The institute described March as the first full month of data after the start of the Iran war, when flows deteriorated abruptly. Its public summary gives no total for that month.

Every outflow month since May compares with an inflow a year earlier. May and June of last year drew $39.2bn and $51.1bn respectively.

September and October of last year drew $39.8bn and $27.4bn, the latter as now shown in the November edition.

August’s inflow also ran well short of last year, at $11.4bn against $35.9bn a year earlier.

Early readings move

The tracker’s first readings are revised, sometimes by sizeable amounts. September’s outflow shrank by $7.0bn between the October and November editions.

October 2025 has moved in both directions. First reported as a $26.9bn inflow in the November 2025 edition, it was cut to $20.5bn a month later. It now stands at $27.4bn.

Smaller revisions run through the rest of the year. Last November’s outflow went from $3.9bn to $5.4bn. May’s went from $26.6bn to $25.2bn. Year-earlier months have moved further. September 2025, first printed at $26.2bn in the October 2025 edition, now stands at $39.8bn.

A revision as large as September’s would still leave October above every other outflow the public summaries show since March.

The first September reading of $26.3bn was set out on our site on 8 October.

Debt carried the earlier inflows

The November edition’s public summary does not break October’s total down by asset class or by region.

In the five editions from October 2025 to March 2026 whose summaries give debt figures, debt carried the inflows each time. The edition of last December put November debt flows at a $15bn inflow, against an $18.9bn equity outflow.

The January edition said debt led December’s recovery with $29.4bn of inflows. The March edition called debt the primary anchor, at $14.3bn against $7.4bn for equities.

Emerging market portfolio flows by month (in $ billions)

Negative figures are net outflows by nonresident investors. Each month shows the latest total printed in the institute’s public summaries. February and March 2026 totals are not shown in them.

Figures are from the Institute of International Finance’s Capital Flows Tracker, November 2026 edition, published on 5 November 2026, and the public summaries of its editions from October 2025 to October 2026 on iif.com. Comparisons not attributed to the institute are The Edge’s calculations.

Sources: Institute of International Finance (IIF), The Edge.

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