Hernández de Cos and Knot Are the Two Candidates to Succeed Lagarde at the ECB
Spain’s Pablo Hernández de Cos and the Netherlands’ Klaas Knot are the only two candidates to succeed Christine Lagarde as European Central Bank President, after nominations closed on 6 November.
The choice settles who will chair the Governing Council that sets interest rates for the 21 countries of the euro area, and Lagarde steps down on 7 February 2027. In The Edge’s reading, if the process moves at the 59-day pace of this year’s Vice-President selection, the Eurogroup’s 10 December meeting is the last scheduled one at which an endorsement would still point to an appointment by that date.
Eurogroup Takes Stock of Both Candidacies on 9 November
Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis said he started the appointment procedure after Lagarde told the President of the European Council of her decision on 29 October. He asked member states to send nominations by 6 November.
Two candidacies arrived by the deadline, he said in a statement published at 16:13 GMT on 6 November. Euro area finance ministers will take stock of them at their meeting in Brussels on 9 November, which opens at 08:00 GMT.
The meeting’s draft annotated agenda goes wider than the presidency. Ministers will look at candidacies for the succession of the ECB President “and other vacancies in the ECB Executive Board”, which the agenda does not name.
The ECB’s table of Executive Board terms ends Philip R. Lane’s term on 31 May 2027. Isabel Schnabel, who started on 1 January 2020, is resigning to take a senior role at the International Monetary Fund.
Her departure was announced on 24 September, and she will step down on 3 January 2027. The IMF intends to appoint her its Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department from 4 January.
Our 29 October article set out Lagarde’s decision to step down on 7 February 2027, which she gave to the Governing Council and European Council President António Costa that day. Her term began in November 2019, so it would otherwise have run into the autumn of 2027.
Appointment Needs 16 of 21 Countries and 65% of the Population
The European Council appoints the President on a recommendation from the Council of the EU, after consulting the European Parliament and the ECB’s Governing Council. The procedure is laid down in Article 283 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
Only euro area countries take part, and they decide by reinforced qualified majority. The Eurogroup statement defines that as 72% of euro area member states, which means at least 16 countries. Those countries must also represent at least 65% of the euro area’s population.
The country count leaves limited room. Six countries outside the majority would stop a candidate on the count alone.
The population test gives the most populous countries more weight. On Eurostat’s figures, the euro area had 359.6 million people at the start of 2026. On those figures, a majority would need at least 233.7 million of them.
Germany and France together account for 42.4% of that population. If Germany and France both stay out, a majority could reach at most 57.6%, short of the 65% test.
At the other end, the 16 smallest euro area countries together account for 22.3% of the population. A majority built on the smaller members alone therefore cannot pass, however many of them back a candidate.
Euro area population on 1 January 2026
| Country | Millions | Share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 83.47 | 23.2 |
| France | 69.11 | 19.2 |
| Italy | 58.94 | 16.4 |
| Spain | 49.59 | 13.8 |
| Netherlands | 18.13 | 5.0 |
| Other 16 countries | 80.34 | 22.3 |
| Euro area (21) | 359.58 | 100.0 |
Population on 1 January 2026; several country figures and the euro area total are marked provisional or estimated. Shares are of the 21-country total and may not add to 100 because of rounding.
Candidates must be nationals of a euro area member state with recognised standing and professional experience in monetary or banking matters, according to the Council’s guidance on the procedure. The term is eight years and cannot be renewed.
This Year’s Vice-President Choice Took 59 Days From Endorsement
The most recent precedent is the appointment of Boris Vujčić as ECB Vice-President earlier this year. The Eurogroup endorsed his candidacy on 19 January 2026, when he was Governor of the Croatian National Bank.
The Council adopted its recommendation to the European Council on 26 January. The European Council appointed him on 19 March, 59 days after the endorsement.
He took office on 1 June, succeeding Luis de Guindos. That last step followed a start date fixed in advance, so it is a weak guide to how fast a presidency vacancy can be filled.
The 2026 Vice-President appointment and the current timetable
| Step | Date | Days after Eurogroup step |
|---|---|---|
| Vujčić endorsed by the Eurogroup | 19 Jan 2026 | 0 |
| Council recommendation | 26 Jan 2026 | 7 |
| European Council appointment | 19 Mar 2026 | 59 |
| Vujčić takes office | 1 Jun 2026 | 133 |
| Eurogroup takes stock of candidacies | 9 Nov 2026 | 0 |
| Lagarde steps down | 7 Feb 2027 | 90 |
Day counts are calendar days from the Eurogroup step in each process: the endorsement of 19 January 2026 and the stock-take of 9 November 2026.
The 9 November stock-take leaves 90 days before Lagarde’s departure. At the Vujčić pace, an endorsement that day would point to a European Council appointment on 7 January.
The next scheduled Eurogroup meeting is on 10 December. Counting 59 days from that date lands on 7 February itself. That is an illustrative timetable, not a legal deadline.
The European Council made the Vujčić appointment at its scheduled meeting of 19 March. The Council’s calendar lists a special European Council on 26 and 27 November and a European Council on 17 and 18 December. An informal EU leaders’ retreat follows on 5 February 2027.
The precedent is a guide rather than a rule, and Article 283 sets no deadline for the appointment.
As set out on 29 October, Lagarde’s last scheduled monetary policy meeting ends on 4 February 2027. The ECB calendar puts the next one on 17 and 18 March 2027, the first after her departure.
What to watch: 9 November, 08:00 GMT: euro area finance ministers take stock of the candidacies in Brussels. 10 December: the next scheduled Eurogroup meeting. 17 and 18 December: European Council meeting. 17 December: the ECB’s last monetary policy decision of 2026, followed by a press conference. 7 February 2027: Lagarde steps down.
Method: The candidacies and the voting rule are from the Eurogroup President’s statement of 6 November 2026 (16:13 GMT); the procedure is from Article 283 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, the Council’s appointment guidance and the draft annotated agenda for 9 November 2026; the precedent is from the European Council press release of 19 March 2026; Isabel Schnabel’s departure is from the ECB and IMF press releases of 24 September 2026; populations are Eurostat’s figures for 1 January 2026; shares, day counts and comparisons not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.
Sources: Council of the EU, European Council, European Central Bank, Eurostat, International Monetary Fund, The Edge.
