China’s Upstream Price Breadth Reverses as 33 of 50 Key Inputs Rise in Mid-August
China’s high-frequency production-input prices turned broadly higher in mid-August, with 33 of 50 major commodities and industrial inputs rising, against only 12 in the preceding ten-day period.
The National Bureau of Statistics said 33 products increased, 14 declined and three were unchanged in mid-August compared with early August. In the preceding period only 12 products rose, while 31 fell and seven were unchanged. The share of monitored products increasing therefore jumped from 24 percent to 66 percent in ten days.
| Price breadth | Early August | Mid-August |
|---|---|---|
| Products rising | 12 | 33 |
| Products falling | 31 | 14 |
| Unchanged | 7 | 3 |
| Share rising | 24% | 66% |
A net breadth measure, the share of products rising minus the share falling, moved from minus 38 percent to plus 38 percent, a reversal of 76 percentage points, our calculation. That is the clearest signal in the release: upstream weakness went from widespread in early August to concentrated in a minority of monitored products by mid-month. The breadth measure is an unweighted count across the 50 monitored products, not an inflation index, so it shows how widespread the direction of price changes has become rather than the size of upstream inflation.
The survey covers nine categories and 50 products, using prices collected from nearly 2,000 wholesalers, agents and distributors across more than 300 markets in all 31 provincial-level regions. It measures prices in the circulation sector, which include distribution costs, margins and taxes, and is therefore different from the producer-price index, which measures factory-gate prices when industrial goods are first sold. Its value is frequency: it gives a reading on upstream pricing between the monthly producer-price releases.
China’s July producer-price index rose 3.5 percent from a year earlier but fell 0.7 percent on the month. Industrial purchase prices were 5.5 percent higher than a year earlier but 1.0 percent lower than in June, while prices of production materials fell 0.9 percent on the month.
| July producer-price signal | Change |
|---|---|
| Producer-price index, year on year | +3.5% |
| Producer-price index, month on month | −0.7% |
| Purchase prices, year on year | +5.5% |
| Purchase prices, month on month | −1.0% |
| Production-material prices, month on month | −0.9% |
That combination, positive annual producer inflation but falling monthly prices, makes the mid-August reversal more notable, because a broad ten-day increase in circulation prices runs against the softer monthly producer trend.
Within the mid-August survey, several industrial materials led the increases. Polysilicon rose 12.4 percent, butadiene rubber 7.3 percent, coking coal 7.1 percent, methanol 6.3 percent, pure benzene 6.1 percent and lithium iron phosphate 4.4 percent, while copper, aluminium and zinc rose 0.7 percent, 0.8 percent and 0.6 percent. On the downside, coke fell 2.0 percent, urea 1.1 percent, float glass 1.0 percent, potash 0.8 percent and phosphate fertiliser 0.7 percent.
| Selected input, mid-August | Change |
|---|---|
| Polysilicon | +12.4% |
| Butadiene rubber | +7.3% |
| Coking coal | +7.1% |
| Methanol | +6.3% |
| Pure benzene | +6.1% |
| Lithium iron phosphate | +4.4% |
| Coke | −2.0% |
| Urea | −1.1% |
| Float glass | −1.0% |
| Potash | −0.8% |
| Phosphate fertiliser | −0.7% |
The reach of the advance matters: the mid-August increase spanned coal, chemicals, non-ferrous metals and battery materials at once, rather than resting on a single commodity such as polysilicon.
Why it matters: One ten-day observation is not a trend, and the meaning depends on the driver. If manufacturers face higher input costs without stronger orders, firmer upstream prices would squeeze margins; if the increases reflect improved demand, production and inventory rebuilding, the same data would point to stronger industrial momentum. What is already clear is that the balance of price movements shifted from decisively negative to decisively positive in ten days, a change in the pricing environment rather than in any single commodity.
Outlook: The next survey will matter less for any one product than for whether the unusually broad 33-of-50 advance persists, and the monthly producer-price index will show whether the high-frequency turn feeds through to factory-gate prices.
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China, 14 and 24 August 2026 (ten-day circulation-price surveys); 10 August 2026 (July producer prices).
