Egypt’s Economy Grows 5.1 Percent in Fiscal Year 2025/26, Beating Forecasts
Egypt’s economy grew 5.1 percent in the fiscal year ended June 2026, up from 4.4 percent the previous year and above international institutions’ expectations, Planning and Economic Development Minister Ahmed Rostom told the Cabinet, with growth led by industry, Suez Canal traffic and petroleum refining.
A Fourth Quarter That Cooled From the Year’s Own Pace
Growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year, April through June 2026, ran at 4.7 percent, the Cabinet’s own readout showed, decelerating from the 5.2 percent pace recorded over the fiscal year’s first nine months, according to the International Monetary Fund’s July 30, 2026 review of Egypt’s loan program. On our calculation, the acceleration from 4.4 percent to 5.1 percent over the full year represents a pickup of 0.7 percentage points, or a rise of nearly 16 percent in the growth rate itself, even as the fourth quarter itself ran below the pace set earlier in the year. Non oil industry, trade and communications together accounted for 48 percent of the year’s total growth, meaning close to half of the year’s growth contribution came from those three broad areas of activity.
A Suez Canal and Refining Reversal
The Suez Canal’s transit activity grew 23.3 percent for the full fiscal year, recovering from a contraction the year before, and accelerated further to 33.8 percent in the fourth quarter alone. On our calculation, the fourth quarter pace ran at about 1.5 times the full year average, consistent with a low base effect from the depressed transit levels of a year earlier as the recovery gathered pace through the year. Petroleum refining swung from a 1.9 percent contraction the previous year to 8.7 percent growth, a reversal of 10.6 percentage points on our calculation, aided by higher production and completed refinery maintenance. Communications and information technology grew 24.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace among the sectors highlighted in the readout, while restaurants and hotels grew 6.5 percent for the year on continued tourism recovery.
| Sector | Prior Year | FY 2025/26 |
|---|---|---|
| Petroleum refining | -1.9% | 8.7% |
| Suez Canal | Contraction | 23.3% |
| Non oil industry | n/a | 9.0% |
| Restaurants and hotels | n/a | 6.5% |
Figures as presented by the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development’s review. The prior year Suez Canal figure was described as a contraction without an exact percentage given in the readout.
How the Outturn Compared With Forecasts
The Central Bank of Egypt’s latest published forecast, from its May 21, 2026 policy meeting, put fiscal year growth at around 5.0 percent, following earlier forecasts of 4.9 percent in April and 5.1 percent in February. The same International Monetary Fund review cited above put its own projection at about 4.6 percent for the same period. The actual 5.1 percent outturn ran ahead of both estimates.
Why it matters: For Egypt, growth accelerating to 5.1 percent, ahead of both forecasts cited above, confirms that the recovery was stronger than expected over the full fiscal year. The concentration of that growth in industry, the Suez Canal and refining points to a recovery still reliant on a small number of sectors rather than one spread evenly across the economy.
Outlook: Egypt’s FY2026/27 development plan targets real economic growth of 5.4 percent, Egypt’s State Information Service reported, with further gains envisioned to 6.8 percent by FY2029/30. Reaching the first year target would require growth to accelerate by 0.3 percentage points from the 5.1 percent FY2025/26 outturn.
Sources: The Cabinet, Ministry of Planning and Economic Development, International Monetary Fund, Central Bank of Egypt, State Information Service.
