Germany’s Exports to the US Are Down 1.5 Percent This Year Despite a 19.1 Percent July Jump
German exports to the United States rose 19.1 percent in July to 14.4 billion euros, the largest single move in the trade release the federal statistics office published on Tuesday, and 28.3 percent above July last year.
Across the seven months to July those same exports are down 1.5 percent, at 88.8 billion euros. July was a rebound, not a run.
The month and the year to date disagree
| Exports, adjusted | July, billion euros | January to July, billion euros | Change on a year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 14.4 | 88.8 | down 1.5 percent |
| United Kingdom | 6.7 | 48.8 | up 3.4 percent |
| China | 5.6 | 42.1 | down 12.7 percent |
Calendar and seasonally adjusted, as published. On the month the United States rose 19.1 percent, the United Kingdom fell 7.2 percent and China fell 9.5 percent. The July figure for the United States also carries a year on year comparison of 28.3 percent, which is measured against a single weak month rather than against the period.
China is the consistent line and it is consistently negative, down 9.5 percent on the month and 12.7 percent across the seven months. The United Kingdom is the mirror image of the United States, down on the month and up on the period. Only one of the three destinations moves the same way on both measures.
The headline surplus widened because imports fell
Exports overall fell 0.8 percent in July to 138.2 billion euros and imports fell 5.7 percent to 116.9 billion. The trade surplus rose to 21.3 billion euros from 15.4 billion in June, against 16.8 billion in July last year.
| July, adjusted | Billion euros | Change on June | Change on a year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | 138.2 | down 0.8 percent | up 6.1 percent |
| Imports | 116.9 | down 5.7 percent | up 3.0 percent |
| Balance | 21.3 | up from 15.4 | up from 16.8 |
Adjusted figures as published. The unadjusted values are exports of 143.1 billion and imports of 121.0 billion against a published surplus of 22.2 billion, which is the office’s own rounding of the underlying series rather than a subtraction of the two printed levels.
In euros the export decline is about 1.1 billion and the import decline about 7.1 billion, both on our calculation from the published percentages and levels, and the difference between them is the 5.9 billion the surplus gained. The import fall is about 6.3 times the export fall in money on our calculation, and 7.1 times in percentage terms.
Across the seven months exports reached 954.2 billion, up 4.0 percent, and imports 828.4 billion, up 4.2 percent, a cumulative surplus of 125.8 billion. The office publishes no cumulative levels for last year, so the prior figure can only be reconstructed from rounded percentages; on that basis the surplus is about 3 billion euros wider than a year earlier, on our calculation, and the figure should not be read to a decimal.
By region, exports to the European Union fell 1.6 percent to 78.0 billion and to the euro area 2.8 percent to 53.9 billion, while exports outside the Union edged up 0.2 percent to 60.2 billion. Imports fell across every grouping, by 6.1 percent from the Union and 5.3 percent from third countries. Imports from China fell 7.5 percent to 15.2 billion and imports from the United States 8.2 percent to 7.9 billion. On the July values Germany ran a surplus of about 6.5 billion euros with the United States and a deficit of about 9.6 billion with China, both on our calculation.
The release carries an explicit limit on what can be read into any of it. These are provisional data, and the office states that because detailed results are not available this early, it is not possible to provide information on the reasons for changes in foreign trade as a whole or in trade with individual countries.
Why it matters: A surplus that widens because imports fall 5.7 percent while exports also fall is arithmetic, not export strength. The American line is the one that changes the picture: a 19.1 percent monthly jump reads as a breakout until the seven month figure shows exports to that destination down 1.5 percent, which makes July a recovery from a weak base rather than new demand. China is down on both measures and by double digits over the period.
Outlook: August figures are due in early October. The test for the American line is whether it holds above the seven month trend or gives back the July gain, and the test for the surplus is whether imports rebound after a fall that steep. If imports recover and exports stay flat, the surplus would mechanically narrow again.
Sources: Federal Statistical Office of Germany.
