Jordan’s Inflation Eases to 2.66 Percent While Extractive Output Falls 9.76 Percent
Jordan’s Department of Statistics published two monthly readings on Sunday. Consumer prices rose 2.66 percent in August against the same month of 2025 and fell 0.25 percent against July, with inflation across the first eight months running at 2.20 percent. Industrial output rose 1.22 percent in July against a year earlier, but manufacturing supplied more than all of it, contributing 1.78 points on our calculation against a headline of 1.22, while extractive industries fell 9.76 percent.
Transport alone contributed 1.12 percentage points of the August inflation rate, which is 42.1 percent of it on our calculation, from a group weighing 15.98 percent of the basket. The August reading is the third consecutive easing from a May peak of 2.83 percent, and the price index itself has now fallen for two months running, from 116.13 in June to 115.92 in July and 115.63 in August on the 2018 base.
One group is doing most of the work on prices
Rents carry the largest weight among the groups the release names, at 17.54 percent and contributed 0.76 points in August, or 28.6 percent of the rate. Transport, slightly smaller at 15.98 percent, contributed 1.12 points. Measured as contribution per point of weight, the sharpest mover is neither: oils and fats weigh 1.70 percent of the basket and added 0.29 points, an intensity of 0.171 against transport’s 0.070 and rents’ 0.043. Every ratio in this paragraph is our calculation.
Four food groups pulled the other way. Fruits and nuts, vegetables and pulses, dairy and eggs, and meat and poultry held the August rate down by 0.38 points between them. Before their offset the total reads 3.04 percent on our reading, against a published 2.66 percent.
| Expenditure group | Weight | Contribution, pts | Per point of weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transport | 15.98% | +1.12 | 0.070 |
| Rents | 17.54% | +0.76 | 0.043 |
| Oils and fats | 1.70% | +0.29 | 0.171 |
| Tobacco and cigarettes | 4.37% | +0.17 | 0.039 |
| Education | 4.35% | +0.15 | 0.034 |
| Fuel and lighting | 4.69% | +0.11 | 0.023 |
| Fruits and nuts | 2.57% | -0.17 | -0.066 |
| Vegetables and pulses | 2.96% | -0.14 | -0.047 |
| Dairy products and eggs | 3.72% | -0.04 | -0.011 |
| Meat and poultry | 4.69% | -0.03 | -0.006 |
| All groups, equal to the annual rate | 100% | +2.66 | 0.027 |
August 2026 against August 2025, ranked by contribution. Weights and contribution points as published. The final column is our calculation, dividing the contribution by the group’s weight. The index is built on a basket of 850 items, 325 of them food, priced across a sample of 3,400 establishments.
Over the first eight months the ranking reverses. Rents led with 0.71 points of the 2.20 percent rate and transport followed with 0.60 points, the two together supplying 59.5 percent of it on our calculation. Oils and fats added 0.26 points and tobacco and cigarettes 0.17. Meat and poultry subtracted 0.16 points across the period, having subtracted only 0.03 in August alone. Transport is therefore the group that changed, not the group that has been driving prices all year: its contribution to the August annual rate, 1.12 points, is 0.52 points above its contribution to the eight month rate, on our calculation, while rents moved by 0.05 points between the two. The two measures are built on different comparison periods.
| Month, 2026 | Annual rate | Index, 2018 base |
|---|---|---|
| January | 1.06% | 113.42 |
| February | 1.17% | 113.67 |
| March | 1.87% | 114.53 |
| April | 2.49% | 115.33 |
| May | 2.83% | 115.96 |
| June | 2.79% | 116.13 |
| July | 2.70% | 115.92 |
| August | 2.66% | 115.63 |
Annual rate measured against the same month of 2025. Both columns as published.
The comparison base matters for the headline, and the right variable is the index level rather than last year’s rate. August 2025 came in at 112.63, below July 2025’s 112.87, so the base month is a local low and an annual rate measured against it reads higher than the underlying momentum. The cumulative measure is the steadier one, and at 2.20 percent it sits 0.34 points above the 1.86 percent recorded over the same eight months of 2025, on our calculation.
Industry describes a flatter picture
The production index reached 92.96 in July against 91.83 a year earlier, a rise of 1.22 percent, and 88.86 in June, a rise of 4.61 percent on the month. Across the first seven months the index stood at 88.53 against 88.35 a year earlier, growth of 0.21 percent, which the department’s own release headlines as slight growth. July’s 92.96 sits 5.0 percent above that seven month level, on our calculation.
The sector split explains both numbers. Manufacturing carries 88.7 percent of the index and rose 2.01 percent in July. Electricity, at 5.9 percent of the index, was flat at 0.02 percent. Extractive industries, 5.4 percent of the index, fell 9.76 percent.
| Sector | Weight | July, annual | Jan to Jul, annual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | 88.7% | +2.01% | +0.27% |
| Electricity | 5.9% | +0.02% | +1.90% |
| Extractive industries | 5.4% | -9.76% | -2.11% |
| All industry | 100% | +1.22% | +0.21% |
Weights and sector changes as published. The published weights carry one decimal, so the weighted parts do not reconstruct the published totals exactly.
Applying the published weights, extractive industries subtracted about 0.53 points from July’s annual rate, on our calculation, and computing from the manufacturing and electricity rates and their weights, the 94.6 percent of the index that is not extractive grew about 1.89 percent, against the 1.22 percent published for the whole. Over the seven months the same sector subtracted about 0.11 points from a total of 0.21, also on our calculation. Electricity is the mirror case: 5.9 percent of the index, flat on the year, but up 17.06 percent against June.
Why it matters: the two releases describe the same economy from opposite ends. Transport is the group that pushed August prices up, contributing 42.1 percent of the rate from 15.98 percent of the basket, and extractive industries is the sector contracting, at 9.76 percent in July. Neither reading is deteriorating: the annual inflation rate has eased for three months, the price index has fallen for two, four food groups are subtracting from the total, and manufacturing, which is 88.7 percent of industry, is still growing. What the detail shows is a price problem concentrated in two groups that together weigh 33.5 percent of the basket, rents and transport, and an industrial slowdown concentrated in a sector weighing 5.4 percent.
Outlook: a September price index below about 115.56 would put the annual rate under 2.5 percent, on our calculation, which needs a fall of only 0.07 points from August. The base turns in two directions from here, read on index levels rather than on last year’s rates. September and October 2025 came in at 112.74 and 112.82, both above August 2025’s 112.63, so those are higher bases and they work against the annual rate. November 2025 fell to 112.46, a lower base that works for it, before December jumped to 113.22, the highest reading of that year. On the production side the release measures quantities only, so whether the extractive decline is a volume story or a price story is not answered here.
Sources: Department of Statistics of Jordan.
