Saudi Inflation Holds at 1.8 Percent for a Fourth Month as Wholesale Prices Fall for the First Time Since March
Saudi consumer prices rose 1.8 percent in August against the same month of 2025, the fourth consecutive month at that rate, and 0.1 percent against July. The General Authority for Statistics published the figures on Tuesday morning. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels contributed 0.8 percentage points of the 1.8, which is 44.4 percent of the whole rate on our calculation, from a single division.
The stability is the finding. On the thirteen readings the Authority publishes with the release, the annual rate has printed 1.8 percent in six of the past eight months and 1.7 percent in the other two. The entire range since January is a tenth of a percentage point.
Four months at 1.8, eight months inside a tenth
| Month | Annual CPI |
|---|---|
| August 2025 | 2.3% |
| September 2025 | 2.2% |
| October 2025 | 2.2% |
| November 2025 | 1.9% |
| December 2025 | 2.1% |
| January 2026 | 1.8% |
| February 2026 | 1.7% |
| March 2026 | 1.8% |
| April 2026 | 1.7% |
| May 2026 | 1.8% |
| June 2026 | 1.8% |
| July 2026 | 1.8% |
| August 2026 | 1.8% |
Annual change in the consumer price index, as published by the General Authority for Statistics. The count of months at each rate is our calculation.
The step down happened in January, when the rate fell from 2.1 percent to 1.8. Since then the reading has moved only between 1.7 and 1.8 percent, a range of a single tenth across eight months. Whatever is being priced into Saudi consumer inflation has been priced in since the winter.
One division carries almost half the rate
| Division | Contribution to the 1.8% |
|---|---|
| Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels | 0.8 pts |
| Food and beverages | 0.3 pts |
| Transport | 0.3 pts |
| Personal care, social protection and other goods and services | 0.2 pts |
| All other divisions together | 0.2 pts |
Contributions as published. They sum to the headline rate.
Three divisions supply 1.4 points of the 1.8, or 77.8 percent of it on our calculation, and the remaining nine between them supply 0.2. Housing alone does more than food and transport combined.
Inside housing the driver is narrow, and it is easing. The division rose 3.9 percent on the year and the Authority attributes that to actual rentals for housing, also up 3.9 percent. The July bulletin put the same division at 4.2 percent and rentals at 4.3. So the rent line slowed by three tenths of a point between the two releases while its contribution to the headline held at 0.8 points. This is a rent index, not an energy one.
The fastest riser is jewellery, and only two divisions fell
| Division | Annual change |
|---|---|
| Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels | +3.9% |
| Personal care, social protection and other goods and services | +3.5% |
| Entertainment, sports and culture | +2.8% |
| Transport | +2.0% |
| Food and beverages | +1.4% |
| Clothing and footwear | -0.5% |
| Furniture, home appliances and periodic home maintenance | -0.6% |
Selected divisions, annual change for August 2026 as published. The divisions not shown moved less than those above.
The personal care division rose 3.5 percent on the back of other personal effects, up 13.3 percent, which the Authority traces to jewellery and watches at 14.4 percent. Entertainment, sports and culture rose 2.8 percent on holiday packages, up 4.7 percent. Those are the two sharpest individual movements the release names, and neither is a staple.
Only two of the divisions fell: furniture, home appliances and periodic home maintenance at 0.6 percent, and clothing and footwear at 0.5 percent.
On the month the pattern differs again. Personal care rose 0.8 percent, transport 0.6 percent, insurance and financial services 0.5 percent and housing 0.2 percent, while food and beverages fell 0.1 percent and restaurants and accommodation services fell 0.4 percent.
Wholesale prices turn down for the first time since March
The wholesale price index rose 4.6 percent on the year in August and fell 0.2 percent on the month. On the thirteen readings the Authority publishes with that bulletin, the last time the annual rate fell was March, when it went from 3.5 percent to 3.3. It then held or climbed for five straight months to 5.0 percent in July before this month’s fall.
| Month | Annual WPI |
|---|---|
| August 2025 | 2.1% |
| September 2025 | 2.1% |
| October 2025 | 2.9% |
| November 2025 | 2.3% |
| December 2025 | 3.1% |
| January 2026 | 2.9% |
| February 2026 | 3.5% |
| March 2026 | 3.3% |
| April 2026 | 3.3% |
| May 2026 | 4.6% |
| June 2026 | 4.8% |
| July 2026 | 5.0% |
| August 2026 | 4.6% |
Annual change in the wholesale price index, as published by the General Authority for Statistics.
The Authority attributes the annual rise mainly to two sections. Other transportable goods excluding metal products, machinery and equipment rose 8.2 percent, driven by basic chemicals at 51.4 percent with refined petroleum products up 4.0 percent. Metal products, machinery and equipment rose 2.2 percent, on basic metals up 5.4 percent. Ores and minerals fell 1.8 percent on stones and sand. Food products, beverages, tobacco and textiles recorded no significant change at all.
The monthly fall runs through the same section. Other transportable goods fell 1.0 percent on the month, driven by basic chemicals down 6.2 percent and glass and non metallic products down 0.5 percent. Agriculture and fishery products fell 1.5 percent on live animals and animal products, down 8.5 percent. Food products rose 0.6 percent on meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, oils and fats at 2.6 percent and dairy at 0.3 percent.
Basic chemicals are therefore the dominant swing factor in both directions, up 51.4 percent on the year and down 6.2 percent on the month. They are not the only moving part: petroleum products, metals, ores and agriculture all move within the index, and the Authority names the section rather than the single line as the cause.
Producer prices rise 5.3 percent on the year and fall 2.8 percent on the month
The producer price index is published a month in arrears and the latest reading covers July. It rose 5.3 percent on the year and fell 2.8 percent on the month.
| Producer prices, July 2026 | Annual | Monthly |
|---|---|---|
| General index | +5.3% | -2.8% |
| Manufacturing | +5.5% | -3.0% |
| Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply | +2.3% | +0.1% |
| Water supply, sewerage and waste management | +6.8% | No significant change |
As published by the General Authority for Statistics.
Inside manufacturing the annual rises are chemicals and chemical products at 13.1 percent, wearing apparel at 12.9 percent, basic metals at 8.8 percent, food products at 5.4 percent and refined petroleum products at 4.2 percent. Fabricated metal products fell 3.1 percent, other non metallic mineral products 2.3 percent and other economic activities 2.4 percent.
The monthly fall of 3.0 percent in manufacturing was led by refined petroleum products, down 6.8 percent, and chemicals and chemical products, down 2.5 percent.
The two producer side indices are not directly comparable and the difference in their chemical lines shows why. The wholesale index puts basic chemicals up 51.4 percent on the year; the producer index puts chemicals and chemical products up 13.1 percent. The Authority defines the wholesale index as price movements of goods at the pre retail stage for a fixed basket, and the producer index as domestic product prices collected from a survey of industrial establishments. Different coverage, different classifications and different weights, so the divergence shows where price pressure is appearing rather than measuring any single quantity.
Why it matters: the consumer price index has not moved by more than a tenth of a point since January, and it has held at 1.8 percent through four months in which the Kingdom’s real economy has been under visible strain. The Saudi Central Bank’s own indicator panel carries annual GDP growth of minus 4.7 percent for the second quarter, the OECD put the quarterly contraction at 4.8 percent on Monday, and we reported on 11 September that oil accounted for 99 percent of an 8.1 percent fall in industrial output. A consumer price index that does not respond to that is telling you what it is made of: 0.8 of the 1.8 points is domestic rent, and the riyal has held its peg to the dollar at 3.7500 throughout. What has responded is the producer side, where refined petroleum products fell 6.8 percent in a single month and the wholesale index has now turned down for the first time since March.
Outlook: the next consumer price release covers September and the Authority publishes to a dated calendar, so the test is whether the rate finally leaves the 1.7 to 1.8 band it has held all year. Watch the rent line rather than the headline, since it is supplying almost half the rate on its own and it has just slowed for the first time in months. On the producer side the number to watch is basic chemicals, which is swinging the wholesale index in both directions, and the August producer index, which lands a month behind and will be the first to show whether the refined petroleum fall continued.
Sources: General Authority for Statistics, Saudi Central Bank, OECD.
