Commodities Wrap 13 July: Oil Jumps More Than 8 Percent as Trump Moves to Reinstate the Blockade on Iranian Shipping and Gold Sinks to the 4,000 Dollar Line
Oil surged and almost everything else in the commodities complex fell on Monday after President Donald Trump announced that the United States will reinstate its naval blockade on Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude jumped 8.70 percent to 82.62 dollars a barrel in late New York trade and WTI rose 8.56 percent to 77.52 dollars, while gold sank 2.59 percent to 4,007.30 dollars an ounce, pressing the 4,000 dollar line it has held through the crisis.
The announcement came in a mid-morning social media post, followed by television comments, with Forbes reporting the declaration that the United States “will be, from this point forward, known as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT'”. The stated package covers ships entering and exiting Iran, a measure aimed at Iranian shipping rather than a closure of the waterway to other traffic, and, per Forbes and Bloomberg, a proposed 20 percent charge on cargo shipped through the strait. No formal order had been published by the time of writing, and CNBC reported the move sent oil prices up nearly 8 percent. The announcement landed on a market that was already firm: Brent had traded up about 4.2 percent earlier in the session, before the president’s post, then roughly doubled its gain, our reading of the session prints.
The rest of the board told a different story from the oil screens. Gold broke with its haven script, falling 2.59 percent to 4,007.30 dollars even as the VIX jumped 12.8 percent to 16.96, and silver dropped 3.75 percent to 57.91 dollars. Palladium lost 1.86 percent to 1,252.50 dollars and platinum 1.04 percent to 1,612.00. With the 10-year Treasury yield rising about 5 basis points to 4.61 percent, the metals complex traded like a market pricing tighter policy alongside dearer oil rather than reaching for shelter, our reading. Bitcoin fell 3.41 percent to 61,971 dollars.
The quieter corners stayed quiet. US natural gas eased 2.07 percent to 2.879 dollars per million British thermal units, and copper was flat at 6.2805 dollars a pound, a base-metals shrug that sits oddly beside an 8 percent oil move and reinforces the read that this is an oil-specific repricing, not a broad commodity shock.
OPEC’s July Monthly Oil Market Report, published Monday, gave the fundamental backdrop: the organization trimmed its forecast for 2026 world oil demand growth to about 0.8 million barrels a day from about 1 million in last month’s report, while putting 2027 growth near 1.9 million barrels a day, per the report’s figures as carried by Xinhua. A demand forecast moving down as the supply artery is contested is the tension the price now has to resolve.
Equities absorbed the move unevenly: the S&P 500 was down 0.67 percent in afternoon trade, the Dow 0.27 percent and the Nasdaq 1.39 percent, extending the technology-led weakness that began in Asia, where Seoul’s Kospi had crashed 8.95 percent hours earlier.
Why it matters: The blockade turns a shipping disruption into a policy instrument with a price attached: a 20 percent charge on strait cargo, if implemented, would function as a toll on the world’s main oil artery. The market’s response priced barrels rather than panic, with oil up sharply while gold, silver and crypto fell as yields rose, a repricing of inflation and policy risk more than of supply catastrophe, our reading. For the Gulf, Brent at 82.62 dollars closes a meaningful part of the gap to the 94 dollar fiscal breakeven Fitch flagged for Saudi Arabia in 2027, covered on this site, even as it raises the import bill for the Asian economies that buy Gulf barrels.
Outlook: The markers are whether a formal order follows the announcement and how a 20 percent charge would be applied and collected, how war-risk insurance and tanker rates re-quote against a declared blockade, and what an 82 dollar Brent print does to Tuesday’s US CPI conversation, which lands at 12:30 UTC with Chair Warsh’s House testimony ninety minutes later. OPEC’s trimmed demand path and China’s June trade data, expected within days, frame the demand side of the same question.
Table – Commodities and crypto, late New York trade, 13 July, ranked by change:
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | $82.62/barrel | +8.70% |
| WTI crude | $77.52/barrel | +8.56% |
| Copper | $6.2805/lb | -0.02% |
| Platinum | $1,612.00/oz | -1.04% |
| Palladium | $1,252.50/oz | -1.86% |
| Natural gas | $2.879/MMBtu | -2.07% |
| Gold | $4,007.30/oz | -2.59% |
| Bitcoin | $61,970.52 | -3.41% |
| Silver | $57.91/oz | -3.75% |
Price basis: CNBC late-market quotes, 13 July; not official exchange settlements. US equity figures are intraday.
Sources: CNBC; Forbes; Bloomberg; OPEC; Xinhua.
