Commodities Wrap 14 September: Brent Settles 1 Percent Higher After a Near 5 Percent Spike Fades

By The Edge Research Team

Brent crude settled at 105.68 dollars a barrel on Monday, up 1.07 dollars or 1.0 percent, and West Texas Intermediate at 101.39 dollars, up 1.34 dollars or 1.3 percent, per Reuters, after both benchmarks jumped almost 5 percent and then retreated from their session highs when President Donald Trump said Iran wanted to reach a deal with Washington, per the same report. The settlement answers the test our Commodities Wrap of 11 September set: at 105.68 dollars Brent finished 1.95 dollars short of the 107.63 dollar settlement of Thursday 10 September, on our calculation, so the relief priced on Friday’s shipping talks report has not been fully unwound on a settlement basis, even though the contract traded above that level at 12:35 GMT. The metals board fell across all 5 rows, gold down 1.49 percent at 4,343.40 dollars on the post settlement snapshot, while bitcoin rose 2.47 percent and the dollar index 0.30 percent into a Federal Reserve meeting at which investors expect policymakers to lift the benchmark rate a quarter point to a 3.75 to 4.00 percent range on Wednesday, per the wire’s report.

Energy: a 5 percent spike sold within the session

The day’s shape was a round trip. Both benchmarks jumped almost 5 percent after strikes on Saudi infrastructure, per the wire’s report, and Brent traded at 108.50 dollars at 12:35 GMT and at 105.26 dollars at 19:18 GMT, 3.24 dollars off the midday level, on our calculation. The pressures the report names run both ways. On the supply side, commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to a single digit per day at the weekend, well below a 10 day average of 14, on preliminary ship tracking data; with the East-West pipeline out of service, the Red Sea port of Yanbu must draw on storage estimated to cover 5 to 7 days of exports, according to 3 industry sources cited in the report; and a separate report, citing Department of Energy data, put stocks in the United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 285 million barrels last week, the lowest since November 1982, with the drawdowns part of a United States agreement to release 172 million barrels. Against that, the remark on a possible deal with Iran erased most of the early gains, and rate expectations weigh on demand. The Brent to WTI settlement spread narrowed to 4.29 dollars from Friday’s 4.56, on our calculation. In refined products, October ULSD was 0.31 percent lower at 4.944 dollars a gallon and RBOB gasoline 0.07 percent lower at 3.3049 dollars, both against Friday’s settlements, while natural gas rose 1.66 percent to 2.878 dollars a million British thermal units.

Metals fall together as the dollar firms into the Fed

Every metal on the board fell. Gold’s December contract was 1.49 percent lower at 4,343.40 dollars an ounce, against Friday’s 4,408.90 dollar settlement, silver fell 1.75 percent to 64.05 dollars, copper 2.07 percent to 6.4125 dollars a pound, the board’s worst, platinum 1.22 percent to 1,775.60 dollars and palladium 1.73 percent to 1,301.00 dollars, all on the same basis. The selling came with the dollar index up 0.30 percent at 99.418 and the yen 0.43 percent weaker at 154.20 per dollar, and with investors pricing Wednesday’s quarter point, per the wire’s report, so on Monday the haven complex was priced against a higher funds rate rather than against the war headlines, on our reading. The counterweight sat in crypto: bitcoin rose 2.47 percent to 79,144.09 dollars and ether 1.44 percent to 2,541.35.

Agriculture splits and volatility climbs into the Fed

The agricultural board split. Coffee rose 1.24 percent to 289.25 cents a pound and cocoa 1.14 percent to 6,029.00 dollars a metric ton, with corn up 0.71 percent at 534.00 cents a bushel, while wheat eased 0.45 percent to 722.00 cents and cotton fell 1.70 percent to 84.60 cents, the board’s worst, all measured against Friday’s settlements in the price feed. The Cboe Volatility Index read 16.85, up 6.38 percent, an intraday level with the United States cash session still open, and the 10 year Treasury yield read 4.965 percent on the vendor’s screen.

Levels after the settlement window at 19:18 GMT on 14 September 2026, ranked by change and measured against Friday 11 September’s settlements as carried in the price feed. These are post settlement snapshot levels, not the official 14 September settlements; the Brent and WTI settlements reported by Reuters were 105.68 dollars (up 1.0 percent) and 101.39 dollars (up 1.3 percent). Contract months are as displayed by the vendor.

Same basis, at 19:18 GMT, ranked by change; levels after the settlement window, measured against Friday 11 September’s settlements.

Same basis, at 19:18 GMT, ranked by change. Soybeans (Nov’26, 1,305.00 cents a bushel, up 0.66 percent) and sugar (Oct’26, 18.16 cents a pound, up 0.06 percent) are omitted to keep the table lean.

Intraday quotes at 19:18 GMT, ranked by change; snapshot levels of continuously traded instruments, not settlements, with the United States cash session still open, so the VIX row is an intraday level rather than a closing print. Sterling/Dollar (1.3507, down 0.08 percent) is omitted to keep the table lean.

Why it matters: The settlement is the day’s finding, on our reading. Friday’s pipeline strike, the weekend’s single digit strait transits, a postponed Gulf negotiation and a Monday strike on a Saudi airbase produced a spike of almost 5 percent, and the market sold all but 1 percent of it by the close on one remark about a possible deal. That is the same asymmetry Friday showed in the other direction: headlines that shorten the disruption are acted on faster than headlines that lengthen it, and Brent has now twice failed to hold the 107.63 dollar level that marks the war premium fully restored, on our count against our published settlements. The metals board carries the second message: gold fell 1.49 percent on Monday despite the escalation, which says the Fed’s Wednesday decision, priced at a quarter point with the dollar firming, set the price of the havens while the war set the price of the barrel, on our reading.

Outlook: Tuesday brings Saudi Arabia’s August consumer and wholesale prices from the General Authority for Statistics and China’s August activity data, per our Week Ahead of 12 September. The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday, the same day the weekly petroleum status report returns to its usual slot, per the same Week Ahead, and the wire’s report has investors expecting a quarter point rise to 3.75 to 4.00 percent with further tightening signalled. For crude the standing test is unchanged: a settlement above 107.63 dollars would mean the talks relief has been fully unwound, and Monday finished 1.95 dollars short; the nearer clock is at Yanbu, where storage covers 5 to 7 days of exports on the sourcing the wire cites, with Riyadh giving no firm estimate for how long the pipeline will stay shut, per our Middle East wrap of 14 September.

Sources: Reuters, CNBC, The Edge.

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