Commodities Wrap 15 October: Gold Settles 1.51 Percent Higher and the Crude Draw Lifts WTI 3 Percent

By The Edge Research Team

First published at 11:59 GMT; updated with the session’s settlements at 20:38 GMT.

The midday rebound in the metals ran to the settlements and the crude benchmarks parted ways into the close: December gold settled 62.20 dollars, or 1.51 percent, higher at 4,170.10 an ounce as the dollar and Treasury yields slipped, while WTI settled 2.88 dollars, or 3.03 percent, higher at 97.97 a barrel, a three-week closing high for a second straight session, after the EIA counted an 8.6-million-barrel draw in US crude stocks against expectations of a 288,000-barrel decline. Brent settled 14 cents lower at 105.92, narrowing its premium to WTI to 7.95 dollars from 10.97 at Wednesday’s settlements, our arithmetic. Cocoa led the agriculture board at 1.67 percent.

Gold snaps three losing sessions as the dollar and yields give way

Gold’s 1.51 percent settlement gain snapped three sessions of losses, as the wire framed the rebound, with the dollar index half a percent lower and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at a three-week low even after September’s producer prices rose 1.3 percent on the month, the largest advance since March 2022, by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ account. Interest rate traders priced about a 30 percent chance of a Federal Reserve increase this month, per CME FedWatch figures carried by Reuters, after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman signalled an immediate increase might not be required, and the wire counts Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting at 03:30 GMT on Friday as the next clue before this month’s meeting. On the settlement board the rebound ran wide: palladium settled 2.92 percent higher, silver 2.29 at 57.156 dollars and platinum 0.43, while copper, 1.56 percent lower, was the only metal to settle down, as it was the only metal falling at midday. On the wire’s account spot silver rose 2.1 percent with palladium up 3.4 and platinum 0.6. The VIX fell 2.43 percent to 16.46, unwinding part of Wednesday’s inflation spike, and bitcoin rose 0.76 percent.

The crude draw lifts WTI 3 percent while Brent eases on sanctions talk

US commercial crude inventories fell 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million in the week ended 9 October, the Energy Information Administration reported, against expectations of a 288,000-barrel draw carried by Reuters, and WTI’s 3.03 percent settlement gain, a fourth consecutive rise across our published settlements, followed the print. Brent went the other way, settling 14 cents lower as the United States weighs easing sanctions on the tankers of the so-called shadow fleet, on the wire’s account, which also carried the International Energy Agency agreeing to release more than 20 million barrels of diesel as soon as possible along with the oil remaining from the record emergency release pledged in March, and Saudi Aramco offering additional spot crude cargoes to Europe. The premium of Brent over WTI, 10.97 dollars at Wednesday’s settlements, settled at 7.95, our arithmetic across the two reports. The products fell against the crude’s rise: gasoline settled 2.43 percent lower after the same report counted a 3.5-million-barrel build in gasoline stocks, and heating oil settled 1.66 percent lower even with distillate stocks down 2.5 million barrels, while natural gas settled 1.19 percent higher. In agriculture, cocoa led at 1.67 percent with sugar up 1.39, while five of the seven tracked rows settled lower, soybeans the deepest at 1.12 percent and coffee, Wednesday’s leader, down 1.09.

Energy

Thursday’s settlements against Wednesday’s, ranked by change; the WTI and Brent rows are verified against the wire’s settlement report, and the remaining rows carry the feed’s settlement prices for 15 October.

Metals

Thursday’s settlements against Wednesday’s, ranked by change; four of the five rose, and copper was the only decline, as at midday. The silver, palladium, platinum and copper rows carry the feed’s settlement prices for 15 October.

Agriculture

Thursday’s settlements against Wednesday’s, the feed’s settlement prices for 15 October, five of the seven tracked rows ranked by change; wheat, down 0.48 percent at 670.00, and corn, down 0.57 at 478.00, are the omitted middle.

Rates, currencies, volatility and crypto

Reference rows at the 20:23 GMT read, ranked by change; the currency rows are intraday levels with no daily settlement, the VIX row is the index’s 20:15 GMT closing print, and the bitcoin row is the Coin Metrics dollar price as the feed carries it.

Why it matters: The storage report rewrote the crude tape in the afternoon: WTI carried a 0.04 percent midday gain to a 3.03 percent settlement while Brent gave back its afternoon recovery on the sanctions talk, and the premium between the benchmarks narrowed three dollars settlement to settlement. In the metals, the rebound the midday board sketched held to the settlements, with only copper declining: yesterday’s dollar-driven selloff met today’s dollar-driven recovery, and the crude pit traded its own inventory story through both.

Outlook: Our US wrap follows after the New York close with this board carried. Tomorrow’s commodities wrap measures against tonight’s settlements; Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting at 03:30 GMT on Friday, on the wire’s account, ahead of this month’s Fed meeting, and the EIA’s next weekly report lands on Wednesday 21 October by the agency’s own schedule.

How these wraps are prepared: Methodology.

Sources: CNBC, Reuters, US Energy Information Administration, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Edge.

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