German Factory Orders Rebound 4.4% in September as Car Industry Bookings Climb 10.5%
Orders at German factories rose 4.4% in September, Destatis said, recovering part of August’s fall as bookings in the car industry climbed 10.5% from a low summer level.
For German manufacturers, the 5.1% rise in orders excluding large-scale contracts matters more, because the gain was broader than a few big contracts. In The Edge’s reading, September partly repaired August rather than turning the trend: across the third quarter, orders were 0.2% higher than in the second, and 0.1% higher without large orders.
Carmakers and machinery builders lead the September gain
The statistics office put the increase down primarily to the automotive industry. Orders and production there had been at a low level in July and August, partly because of production changeovers and factory holidays.
Orders for machinery and equipment rose 8.3%. A large-scale order for engines and turbines, other than aircraft, vehicle and cycle engines, contributed to that rise.
Other transport equipment, which covers aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles, went the other way, with orders down 10.4% on the month. The branch has at times booked very high volumes of large orders this year: its orders more than doubled in July and then fell 61.5% in August, as set out in our report of 6 October.
The gap between the two order measures has swung widely this year. In July the total index stood 10.6 points above the index without large orders, both set to 100 for 2021; by September the gap was 0.4 points.
Consumer goods showed the sharpest move of the three types of good. Capital goods, which fell 15.3% in August on the first estimate, recovered part of that ground.
September orders by type and origin (change on August, in %)
| Group | Change |
|---|---|
| Capital goods | 5.3 |
| Intermediate goods | 0.5 |
| Consumer goods | 14.4 |
| Domestic orders | 6.6 |
| Foreign orders | 2.8 |
| Euro area | 4.5 |
| Outside the euro area | 1.6 |
Real (price adjusted), provisional, seasonally and calendar adjusted; change on August 2026 as revised.
Domestic orders carry the quarter
Domestic orders rose 6.6% in September, more than twice the 2.8% gain from abroad. Within foreign demand, orders from the euro area grew faster than those from outside it.
The quarterly picture shows the same split more sharply. On the seasonally and calendar adjusted index, domestic orders from July to September averaged 5.1% more than from April to June, while foreign orders averaged 3.1% less, The Edge calculates.
The domestic line has been the more volatile. Its index reached 99.8 in July and dropped to 83.3 in August. September brought a recovery to 88.8.
Against a year earlier, the split is similar. In September the domestic index stood 7.9% above September 2025, while the foreign index was 0.2% higher, on The Edge’s calculation from the seasonally and calendar adjusted indices.
New orders index, 2026 (2021 = 100)
| Month | Total | Home | Abroad |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 87.2 | 86.9 | 87.5 |
| February | 88.6 | 83.5 | 92.3 |
| March | 92.5 | 85.0 | 97.9 |
| April | 89.5 | 83.0 | 94.2 |
| May | 89.8 | 84.1 | 93.9 |
| June | 93.2 | 91.7 | 94.3 |
| July | 96.2 | 99.8 | 93.6 |
| August | 86.5 | 83.3 | 88.8 |
| September | 90.3 | 88.8 | 91.3 |
Home is domestic orders and abroad is foreign orders. Real (price adjusted), seasonally and calendar adjusted, as published with the 5 November release. September is provisional; earlier months may be revised.
Revisions soften August and leave the trend flat
August was less weak than first reported. The statistics office revised the monthly fall to 10.1% from 10.6%. It also raised the annual rise for August to 3.2% from 2.7%.
On a calendar adjusted basis, September orders were 3.3% higher than a year earlier. That compares with an annual rise of 14.0% for July as published in October, a month of exceptionally high large-scale orders for ships, trains and aircraft.
The smoother three-month measure tells two stories. In the October release, orders from June to August were 1.3% above the previous three months, but 2.6% lower without large orders. For July to September the total gain slowed to 0.2%, while the measure without large orders turned up 0.1%.
Over the first nine months of 2026, the total index averaged 5.0% above the same period of 2025, on The Edge’s calculation. Excluding large orders the gain was 2.7%, a little over half the headline rate.
Levels are still below 2021. The September index, at 90.3, is 9.7% below the 2021 base of 100. The index without large orders stands at 89.9, a little below its March reading of 90.2.
Quarterly averages of the adjusted indices (2021 = 100; change in %)
| Measure | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total orders | 90.83 | 91.00 | 0.2 |
| Domestic orders | 86.27 | 90.63 | 5.1 |
| Foreign orders | 94.13 | 91.23 | -3.1 |
| Real turnover | 95.50 | 94.03 | -1.5 |
Averages of the three monthly seasonally and calendar adjusted index values in each quarter.
Turnover barely moves while orders swing
Real turnover in manufacturing rose 0.2% in September and was 2.0% higher than a year earlier on a calendar adjusted basis. August turnover was revised to a 0.1% rise from no change.
Across the quarter, turnover averaged 1.5% less than in the second quarter. Factory sales have not kept pace with new orders over the quarter.
The stock of unfilled orders was still rising in August. It grew 0.5% on the month and was 10.7% higher than a year earlier, according to Destatis figures published on 19 October.
With no new orders and sales at their average of the past 12 months, the stock would take 9.0 months to clear. For capital goods producers it would take 12.6 months.
Production rose 2.0% in August, as set out in our report of 8 October. Germany’s economy grew 0.2% in the third quarter, as set out in our report on euro area growth of 30 October, with capital formation lower on the provisional figures.
What to watch:
6 November 2026: the German production index for September.
Method: figures are from Destatis press release No. 385 of 5 November 2026 (new orders and turnover in manufacturing, September 2026, provisional) and the index tables published with it, with context from its releases No. 354 of 6 October 2026 (August orders), No. 355 of 7 October 2026 (August production), No. 371 of 19 October 2026 (stock of orders, August) and No. 381 of 30 October 2026 (GDP, third quarter); quarterly and nine-month averages, year-on-year changes in the domestic and foreign indices, gaps between index lines and distances between index values are The Edge’s calculations from the published seasonally and calendar adjusted indices.
Sources: Destatis, The Edge.
