Gold Climbs Above 4,400 Dollars as Over the Counter Buying Rises 91 Percent
Spot gold traded above four thousand four hundred and fifteen dollars an ounce on Wednesday, up one point one percent on the day, having climbed close to ten percent since the end of July. The World Gold Council’s market commentary, published on 6 August, recorded the metal finishing July almost exactly where it began the month, at four thousand and twenty seven dollars an ounce, and down eight percent for the year to that point. The December contract on the COMEX exchange was quoted separately at around four thousand four hundred and seventy five dollars.
Behind the price, the composition of demand has changed sharply. In the second quarter of 2026 total gold demand including over the counter purchases was one thousand two hundred and sixty nine tonnes, unchanged from the same quarter of 2025. That flat headline conceals two categories rising steeply and three falling.
| Global gold demand, second quarter 2026 | Tonnes | Change on a year earlier |
| Total demand, including over the counter | 1,269 | unchanged |
| Over the counter and other | 327 | up 91 percent |
| Jewellery fabrication | 310 | down 12 percent |
| Central banks and other institutions | 289 | up 62 percent |
| Total investment | 262 | down 46 percent |
| — of which bar and coin | 307 | down 3 percent |
| — of which exchange traded funds | −45 | net outflow |
| Technology | 80 | up 2 percent |
The two lines that grew are the ones whose buyers are least constrained by the level of the price. Over the counter and other purchases, which are made directly between parties rather than through an exchange, reached three hundred and twenty seven tonnes, ninety one percent more than a year earlier and the largest single component of demand. Central banks and other official institutions bought two hundred and eighty nine tonnes on a net basis, sixty two percent more.
The lines that fell are the ones bought by households and funds. Total investment demand nearly halved to two hundred and sixty two tonnes, down forty six percent, almost entirely because exchange traded funds swung to a forty five tonne net outflow. Bar and coin demand slipped three percent to three hundred and seven tonnes. Jewellery fabrication fell twelve percent to three hundred and ten tonnes, and jewellery consumption, the narrower measure of what buyers actually took away, fell seventeen percent by weight to two hundred and seventy eight tonnes even as the amount spent on it rose fourteen percent to forty billion dollars, which is what happens when buyers get less metal for more money. Technology use rose two percent to eighty tonnes.
The central bank figure needs its context. Strong as the second quarter was, the Council reports first half purchases of three hundred and forty five tonnes, which it describes as the lowest for a first half since 2022. It also revised its first quarter estimate down sharply, from two hundred and forty four tonnes to fifty seven, saying new data and analysis led to a sizable revision. The second quarter’s sixty two percent rise is therefore a rebound within a weak half year rather than the continuation of a trend.
In its August commentary the Council noted that flows into exchange traded funds turned positive again in July, led by European funds, and said central banks and Asian investors have become increasingly important drivers of demand and may behave independently of United States macroeconomic factors.
The price path this year has been unusually violent. Gold peaked above five thousand four hundred dollars an ounce in January, according to the Council, and averaged four thousand five hundred and six dollars and twenty nine cents an ounce in the second quarter, eight percent below the first quarter average of four thousand eight hundred and seventy two dollars and ninety cents but thirty seven percent above the same quarter of 2025. In the first quarter, bar and coin demand had reached four hundred and seventy four tonnes, forty two percent higher than a year earlier, with Chinese purchases of two hundred and seven tonnes up sixty seven percent, while jewellery demand fell twenty three percent as buyers were priced out.
Why it matters: A flat demand total is the least informative number in the table, because it is the sum of two large movements in opposite directions. What actually happened in the second quarter is that price-sensitive demand gave way to price-insensitive demand. Households bought less jewellery by weight and slightly fewer bars and coins, and funds pulled forty five tonnes out, while over the counter purchases rose ninety one percent and official institutions bought two hundred and eighty nine tonnes. Those two growing categories do not respond to the interest rate outlook the way a fund flow does, which is the Council’s own observation when it says central banks and Asian investors may behave independently of United States macroeconomic factors. What this publication will not claim is that the shift is permanent. It is one quarter, the over the counter line nearly doubled from a base that could as easily fall back, and the central bank figure sits inside the weakest first half since 2022 after a first quarter that the Council itself cut by one hundred and eighty seven tonnes.
Looking ahead: Three figures will show whether the pattern holds. The first is whether exchange traded fund flows stay positive after July’s reversal, since a sustained return by Western funds would restore a source of demand that was absent in the second quarter. The second is whether over the counter and other purchases hold anywhere near three hundred and twenty seven tonnes, because that line nearly doubled in a year and is the least stable in the table. The third is the central bank number in the Council’s third quarter Gold Demand Trends, due at the end of October, read against the full first half of three hundred and forty five tonnes rather than the second quarter alone. Jewellery is the counterweight, having fallen twenty three percent in the first quarter and seventeen percent in the second.
Sources: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026; World Gold Council, Gold Market Commentary, 6 August 2026; World Gold Council press release, 29 April 2026; CNBC.
