Tokyo Inflation Jumps to 2.7 Percent as Prices Excluding Fresh Food and Energy Rise 3.0 Percent
Consumer prices in Tokyo’s 23 wards rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier in September, up from 1.9 percent in August, according to preliminary mid-month figures the Statistics Bureau of Japan published on 2 October. The index excluding fresh food also rose 2.7 percent, up from 1.8 percent. The measure excluding both fresh food and energy climbed to 3.0 percent from 2.0 percent.
The sharpest move in a year
On our calculation, the 0.8 point rise in the headline rate is the largest monthly change in the 13 months the release tabulates, and 3.0 percent is the highest reading in that table for the measure excluding fresh food and energy. As recently as May, the three measures stood at 1.3, 1.2 and 1.5 percent. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose 0.6 percent from August, 0.9 percent excluding fresh food and 0.7 percent excluding fresh food and energy. The measure excluding both fresh food and energy runs 0.3 points above the one that excludes only fresh food, which on our reading means energy is still damping the latter.
Tokyo consumer prices, change from a year earlier, percent
| Month | Headline | Excluding fresh food | Excluding fresh food and energy |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2025 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| December 2025 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| March 2026 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| May 2026 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| July 2026 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| August 2026 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| September 2026 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
Tokyo’s 23 wards, 2025 base. September 2026 is the preliminary mid-month figure.
What moved
Rent rose 2.0 percent and, on our calculation, made the largest single contribution among the items listed, 0.50 point, to the 2.7 percent headline. Eating out rose 4.7 percent, contributing 0.30 point, with sushi up 14.3 percent. Fresh fish rose 17.2 percent and beverages rose 6.7 percent, with coffee beans up 25.4 percent. Water and sewerage charges rose 29.5 percent, contributing 0.24 point, as water charges went up 65.6 percent. Recreation services added 0.23 point, with hotel charges up 4.6 percent, and transport added 0.13 point, with JR fares up 9.1 percent. Two items worked the other way: nursery school fees fell 100 percent, taking 0.21 point off, and fresh vegetables fell 5.3 percent. On our calculation, the water increase and the nursery fee cut roughly offset each other in September’s 2.7 percent rate, leaving most of it to rent, food and services.
Why it matters: The Tokyo figures come out ahead of the national results as a leading indicator. A 3.0 percent rate excluding fresh food and energy, up a full point in one month, puts underlying inflation in the capital clearly above the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent target, with rent, eating out and recreation services among the largest contributors to the headline rate.
Outlook: The national September figures will show whether the jump extends beyond Tokyo. Because energy is still damping the measure that excludes only fresh food, on our reading any pickup in energy prices would push that measure higher.
Sources: Statistics Bureau of Japan, The Edge.
