Euro Area Current Account Surplus Narrows to 265 Billion Euros as Saving Rate Eases to 14.2 Percent
The euro area’s current account surplus narrowed to 265 billion euros, or 1.6 percent of GDP, in the four quarters to June 2026, down from 304 billion euros a year earlier, the European Central Bank said on 2 October. On our calculation that is a drop of 39 billion euros, about 13 percent. Eurostat said the same day that the euro area household saving rate fell to 14.2 percent in the second quarter from 14.4 percent, as consumption rose 1.3 percent while gross disposable income grew 1.1 percent.
The year and the quarter
Over the four quarters, the narrowing came from goods, whose surplus fell to 288 billion euros from 318 billion, and from a wider secondary income deficit, 199 billion euros against 172 billion. The primary income surplus rose to 26 billion euros from 8 billion, and services were stable at 150 billion. The second quarter on its own tells a different story. On the seasonally adjusted quarterly figures, the surplus fell to 57.0 billion euros from 74.1 billion, on our calculation the smallest of the 5 quarters published. On our calculation, the goods surplus widened by 15.5 billion euros, to 75.3 billion, while primary income moved from a surplus of 27.0 billion euros to a deficit of 1.5 billion. On our calculation that 28.5 billion euro reversal was larger than the whole 17.1 billion euro fall in the quarterly surplus. In the EU as a whole, primary income also drove the fall: its surplus fell to 80.2 billion euros from 98.0 billion, with primary income dropping to 0.8 billion euros from 15.7 billion, while its goods surplus was little changed at 62.9 billion.
Euro area current account by quarter, billion euros, seasonally adjusted
| Quarter | Current account | Goods | Primary income |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 75.0 | 79.6 | 6.1 |
| Q3 2025 | 64.0 | 78.2 | 3.6 |
| Q4 2025 | 65.7 | 74.4 | -2.0 |
| Q1 2026 | 74.1 | 59.8 | 27.0 |
| Q2 2026 | 57.0 | 75.3 | -1.5 |
ECB figures as published in Eurostat’s release of 2 October 2026.
The United States and China
Over the four quarters, the euro area’s deficit with the United States more than doubled, to 119 billion euros from 54 billion, a rise of about 120 percent on our calculation. The goods surplus with the United States fell to 171 billion euros from 230 billion, down about 26 percent on our calculation, while the services deficit with it widened to 204 billion euros from 181 billion. The deficit with China grew to 184 billion euros from 145 billion. By product, the chemicals surplus shrank to 252 billion euros from 306 billion. The energy deficit narrowed to 236 billion euros over the four quarters, but in the second quarter alone it widened to 76 billion euros from 59 billion a year earlier, about 29 percent on our calculation.
Euro area current account with selected partners, four quarters to Q2, billion euros
| Partner | To Q2 2025 | To Q2 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 224 | 252 | +28 |
| Switzerland | 94 | 79 | -15 |
| China | -145 | -184 | -39 |
| United States | -54 | -119 | -65 |
Changes are our calculation. Negative values are deficits.
Households spend, firms earn
On our calculation, the 14.2 percent saving rate is the lowest of the eight quarters in the release’s table, which starts at 15.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024. Businesses moved the other way: the profit share of non-financial corporations rose to 39.0 percent from 38.4 percent, and their investment rate rose to 22.7 percent from 22.5 percent. The euro area’s net international investment position rose to 1.94 trillion euros, 12.0 percent of GDP, from 1.89 trillion in the previous quarter. Reserve assets fell to 1.76 trillion euros from 1.91 trillion, a drop of about 8 percent on our calculation. The release gives no reason for that fall.
Why it matters: The euro area’s external surplus is getting smaller, and on our calculation the biggest shift among its partners was with the United States: the bilateral balance worsened by 65 billion euros in a year. At home, households are spending faster than their income is growing, which supports demand but brings the saving rate to the lowest of the eight quarters in the release.
Outlook: In the second quarter, the decline was driven by primary income even as the goods surplus widened; the next reading will show whether that income swing persists or reverses. The central bank’s account of its September meeting, due on Thursday 8 October as published in our Week Ahead, is the next read on how policymakers see demand.
Sources: European Central Bank, Eurostat, The Edge.
