US Factory Orders Edge Up 0.1 Percent to 663.5 Billion Dollars in August as Shipments Stall
New orders for US manufactured goods rose 0.7 billion dollars, or 0.1 percent, to 663.5 billion dollars in August, the US Census Bureau said on 2 October. It was the second straight monthly gain, after a 0.8 percent rise in July. Shipments were virtually unchanged at 658.6 billion dollars, ending eight consecutive monthly increases.
Orders ran ahead of shipments
On our calculation, orders exceeded shipments by 4.9 billion dollars in August. Unfilled orders rose 9.9 billion dollars, or 0.6 percent, to 1,609.6 billion dollars, up in 25 of the last 26 months. The unfilled orders to shipments ratio rose to 6.87 from 6.81, equivalent on our calculation to roughly 6.9 months of shipments at August’s pace for the industries covered by the ratio. Inventories rose 5.1 billion dollars, or 0.5 percent, to 972.4 billion dollars, an eleventh straight monthly increase, and the inventories-to-shipments ratio edged up to 1.48 from 1.47.
US manufacturers, August 2026, billion dollars, seasonally adjusted
| Series | August | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|
| New orders | 663.5 | +0.7 | +0.1 |
| Shipments | 658.6 | Down less than 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Unfilled orders | 1,609.6 | +9.9 | +0.6 |
| Inventories | 972.4 | +5.1 | +0.5 |
| Durable goods orders | 338.5 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Transportation equipment orders | 114.1 | -0.8 | -0.7 |
| Durable goods orders excluding transportation | 224.4 | +0.6 | +0.3 |
| Nondurable goods orders | 325.0 | +0.9 | +0.3 |
Data are seasonally adjusted and not adjusted for price changes. The row excluding transportation is our calculation from the published durable and transportation figures.
Transport down, fuel up
Durable goods orders fell 0.1 percent to 338.5 billion dollars, revised down from the virtually unchanged reading in the advance report. Transportation equipment drove the drop, falling 0.7 percent to 114.1 billion dollars. Excluding transportation, durable orders rose about 0.6 billion dollars, or 0.3 percent, to 224.4 billion dollars on our calculation. Nondurable goods rose 0.9 billion dollars to 325.0 billion. Shipments of petroleum and coal products rose 0.9 billion dollars, or 1.4 percent, to 70.7 billion dollars, equal in size, on our calculation, to the total reported increase in nondurable orders. Because the figures are not adjusted for prices, on our reading, part of that rise may reflect fuel prices rather than volumes. The release does not separate the two.
Why it matters: US manufacturing demand is still growing, but slowly. On our reading, a backlog that rises while shipments stall, with inventories building for an eleventh month, shows factories taking orders faster than they deliver them.
Outlook: The Census Bureau’s advance report on September durable goods is due on 27 October, followed by the full report on 3 November. Those will show whether shipments resume growth or whether the backlog keeps building.
Sources: US Census Bureau, The Edge.
