US Durable Goods Orders Rise 1.8 Percent as Nondefense Aircraft Orders Jump 28.4 Percent
New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose 1.8 percent in September, the US Census Bureau said on 27 October. They reached 345.4 billion dollars, a gain of 6.3 billion dollars. Orders have now risen in six of the last seven months. One line did most of the work: orders for nondefense aircraft and parts jumped 28.4 percent to 25.3 billion dollars.
Nondefense aircraft supplied 89.7 percent of the gain
Transportation equipment orders rose 5.2 billion dollars, or 4.6 percent, to 119.8 billion dollars. Inside that total, nondefense aircraft orders rose 5.6 billion dollars on our calculation, more than the increase for transportation as a whole. Motor vehicles and parts added 0.3 percent, to 73.4 billion dollars.
On our calculation, nondefense aircraft accounted for 89.7 percent of September’s increase in total orders. Transportation as a whole accounted for 83.4 percent, on our calculation, because its other lines together fell 0.4 billion dollars. Strip out nondefense aircraft and durable orders rose 0.2 percent, on our calculation.
Orders excluding transportation rose 0.5 percent to 225.6 billion dollars, an increase of 1.0 billion dollars on our calculation. On our reading, that is the steadier gauge. Transportation moved 4.6 percent in a month when the rest of the order book moved 0.5 percent.
US durable goods orders, September 2026
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Total orders | $345.4bn | +1.8% |
| Transportation | $119.8bn | +4.6% |
| Nondefense aircraft | $25.3bn | +28.4% |
| Motor vehicles | $73.4bn | +0.3% |
| Excluding transportation | $225.6bn | +0.5% |
Seasonally adjusted and not adjusted for prices. Nondefense aircraft and motor vehicles include parts. Changes are on August.
Core capital goods orders rise 0.5 percent
Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.5 percent to 88.0 billion dollars, after a 1.6 percent rise in August. Shipments of the same goods rose 1.2 percent to 86.1 billion dollars, after 0.6 percent. On our calculation, core orders ran 2.0 billion dollars ahead of core shipments. They made up 25.5 percent of total durable orders, on our calculation. Including aircraft, nondefense capital goods orders rose 6.2 percent to 107.8 billion dollars.
On our reading, the longer view is firmer. Before seasonal adjustment, core capital goods orders for January to September totalled 758.3 billion dollars, up 10.9 percent on the same months of 2025. Total durable goods orders for the period reached 3,007.2 billion dollars, up 8.0 percent.
Defense orders fell and August turned positive
Orders excluding defense rose 2.2 percent to 321.1 billion dollars, faster than the headline. On our calculation, defense orders fell 2.5 percent to 24.3 billion dollars. Defense capital goods orders fell 1.8 percent to 20.8 billion dollars.
August has now been revised twice. The advance report showed orders virtually unchanged at 338.6 billion dollars. The full report on 2 October put August at a 0.1 percent fall, to 338.5 billion dollars. The September release shows August up 0.1 percent, at 339.1 billion dollars. On our calculation, orders rose 2.0 percent over August and September together.
August durable goods orders, three readings
| Release | August change |
|---|---|
| Advance report | Virtually unchanged |
| Full report | -0.1% |
| September advance report | +0.1% |
Readings of the US Census Bureau: the advance and full reports as reported by The Edge on 25 September and 3 October; the September advance report of 27 October. Seasonally adjusted.
The backlog reaches 1,623.6 billion dollars and new home sales run at 676,000
Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 0.8 percent to 1,623.6 billion dollars, an increase of 13.6 billion dollars on our calculation. Before seasonal adjustment, the backlog was 9.0 percent larger than in September 2025. Shipments rose 0.9 percent to 336.8 billion dollars. Inventories rose 0.3 percent, to 610.0 billion dollars.
On our calculation, the backlog equals 4.82 months of September shipments, the same as in August. Inventories equal 1.81 months of shipments on our calculation, down from 1.82. Factories shipped faster than they added to stock, and orders still outran shipments by 8.6 billion dollars on our calculation.
US durable goods, September 2026
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Shipments | $336.8bn | +0.9% |
| Unfilled orders | $1,623.6bn | +0.8% |
| Inventories | $610.0bn | +0.3% |
| Core shipments | $86.1bn | +1.2% |
Seasonally adjusted. Core shipments are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. Changes are on August.
New home sales came out later on 27 October. Sales of new single-family homes ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 in September, the Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said. That was 0.6 percent below August. The release puts a range of plus or minus 13.8 percent on that change, wider than the change itself. August was revised down to 680,000, from 684,000. Sales were 5.3 percent below September 2025, also inside the printed range of plus or minus 12.5 percent. The median price was 400,400 dollars. That was 3.9 percent above August, again inside its range of plus or minus 6.2 percent. The 476,000 new homes for sale at the end of September equal 8.4 months of supply at the current sales rate.
Why it matters: September’s 1.8 percent rise came mostly from nondefense aircraft. Take them out and orders rose 0.2 percent, on our calculation. Core capital goods orders, on our reading the steadier guide to business equipment demand, rose 0.5 percent after 1.6 percent in August. Orders have now risen in six of the last seven months. On our reading, a backlog that grew 0.8 percent in September gives factories work going into the fourth quarter.
Outlook: The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP on 29 October. The full September report on factory shipments, inventories and orders follows on 3 November, and the advance durable goods report for October is due on 25 November.
Sources: US Census Bureau, US Department of Housing and Urban Development, Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Edge.
