US Market Wrap 11 September: Dow Adds 509 Points to Snap a 4 Session Slide as Oil Eases

By The Edge Research Team

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 509.19 points, or 0.98 percent, to close at 52,573.29 on Friday, ending a run of 4 consecutive declines on our count, as crude retreated from Thursday’s surge and traders looked past an August consumer price report that raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate rise next week. The S&P 500 gained 0.86 percent to 7,656.98 and the Nasdaq Composite 0.96 percent to 26,333.04, each also ending 4 straight declines, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.91 percent to 29,368.44 and the Russell 2000 0.45 percent to 2,903.94. The Cboe Volatility Index fell 11.21 percent to 15.84, its first decline in 5 sessions on our count, and Brent crude settled 2.81 percent lower at 104.61 dollars a barrel, per Reuters, after a report that Gulf foreign ministers could meet their Iranian counterparts on temporary shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz.

The week still ended lower

On our calculation from our 4 September closes the S&P 500 finished the week 0.80 percent lower, the Dow 1.57 percent, the Nasdaq Composite 0.66 percent, the Nasdaq 100 0.59 percent and the Russell 2000 2.41 percent, and the VIX is 9.02 percent above its 4 September close of 14.53 even after Friday’s fall. Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, 9 rose. Communication services led with 1.35 percent and consumer discretionary added 1.13 percent, information technology 1.11 percent and industrials 1.07 percent, while health care slipped 0.14 percent and utilities 0.34 percent. Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Dell Technologies rose about 11 percent in afternoon trading, per CNBC, which also reported advancing stocks on the New York Stock Exchange outpacing decliners by about 2 to 1.

CPI: 3.4 percent, and the parts that matter for the Fed

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in August after 0.1 percent in July, with the 12 month rate unchanged at 3.4 percent; the index excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent on the month and 2.4 percent on the year, down from 2.5 percent. Gasoline rose 3.9 percent in the month and accounted for more than a third of the headline increase, energy rose 2.1 percent and shelter 0.3 percent. Consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 in the University of Michigan’s preliminary September survey from 51.7 in August, with year ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.6 percent from 4.0 percent, per CNBC. Markets priced an 87 percent probability of a quarter point increase at the Fed’s meeting on 15 and 16 September, from a 3.50 to 3.75 percent range, per CME’s FedWatch as reported by Reuters, up from 72 percent on Thursday.

The curve

Yields rose at the front end and eased at the long end, a flattening that, on our reading, prices the higher probability of a rise next week. On the Treasury’s official par curve the 2 year yield rose 7 basis points to 4.63 percent and the 3 year 6 basis points to 4.69 percent, while the 10 year added 1 basis point to 4.96 percent and the 30 year fell 2 basis points to 5.35 percent, on our calculation from the daily readings. Over the week the 2 year is up 26 basis points from 4.37 percent on 4 September and the 10 year 18 basis points from 4.78 percent, so the gap between them has narrowed to 33 basis points from 41, on our calculation.

Closes of Friday 11 September 2026 from the vendor’s feed captured at 20:32 GMT, ranked by change; changes are against our published 10 September closes.

S&P 500 sector indices, closes of 11 September 2026 from the vendor’s feed captured at 20:32 GMT, day on day, ranked by change; split across 2 tables for legibility on a phone.

Same basis, ranked continuously with the first sector table.

The official daily par yield curve for 11 and 10 September 2026, read at 21:05 GMT; the department derives the curve from indicative bid side quotations at about 19:30 GMT in US summer time, and the changes are ours. Omitted maturities on 11 September: 1 month 3.93 percent, 3 month 4.07, 6 month 4.12, 1 year 4.35, 7 year 4.87 and 20 year 5.38.

Intraday quotes captured at 20:32 GMT, ranked by change; the VIX carries its final print of the session, the dollar index and bitcoin are on the vendor’s daily basis.

Why it matters: The rebound came on the day the inflation data made a rate rise more likely, not less, which tells you what was being unwound: the 4 session slide had been an oil and rates trade, and Friday’s 2.81 percent fall in Brent was enough to lift 9 of 11 sectors and cut the VIX by 11 percent while the 2 year par yield rose 7 basis points. The August CPI itself is the pre-shock reading: its gasoline component rose 3.9 percent in a month that ended before this week’s move above 100 dollars, and the 26 basis point rise in the 2 year par yield since 4 September, on our calculation from the official par curve, is the market pricing September’s energy on top of August’s. On our reading the equity market has decided that a quarter point on 16 September is affordable if crude stops rising; most economists quoted by the wire expect a further rise in October or December, leaving the path beyond September as the next question for markets.

Outlook: The Federal Open Market Committee meets on 15 and 16 September with the market at 87 percent for a quarter point rise and the funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent; the statement’s treatment of energy will matter more than the move. The Bank of Japan follows on 17 and 18 September. For equities the test is the same as for oil: Thursday’s 107.63 dollar Brent settlement is the level that produced the week’s low, and a return above it before Wednesday would bring the 4 session pattern back. The weekly losses, 0.80 percent on the S&P 500 and 1.57 percent on the Dow, are the base from which the Fed week starts.

Sources: CNBC, Cboe, Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of the Treasury, Reuters, The Edge.

Get Complimentary Insights

Follow us