Commodities Wrap 11 September: Brent Settles 2.81 Percent Lower on Hormuz Talks Report

By The Edge Research Team

Brent crude settled at 104.61 dollars a barrel on Friday, down 3.02 dollars or 2.81 percent, and West Texas Intermediate finished at 100.05 dollars, down 2.43 dollars or 2.37 percent, per Reuters, as both benchmarks gave back part of Thursday’s rise of more than 6 percent after a report that Gulf foreign ministers could meet their Iranian counterparts to discuss temporary shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz. Both contracts still ended the week more than 8 percent higher, per the same report, and on our calculation Brent is 3.36 percent above its 9 September settlement of 101.21 dollars and WTI 4.16 percent above 96.05 dollars, so Friday unwound less than half of Thursday’s move. The International Energy Agency said on Friday that global oil production fell 1.6 million barrels a day in August to 100.1 million as more than 10 million barrels a day of Gulf output remained shut in, and cut its 2026 demand forecast by a further 940,000 barrels a day to a decline of 2.5 million.

Energy: the settlement and the snapshot

The retreat came despite the Saudi Energy Ministry’s announcement that it had shut the East-West crude pipeline as a precaution after attacks on Thursday, per CNBC, and despite the agency’s finding that Saudi crude supply fell 2.3 million barrels a day in August to 6 million, the lowest in more than 3 decades, as carried in the wire’s report. The Brent to WTI settlement spread stood at 4.56 dollars, on our calculation. In refined products the October ULSD contract was 1.10 percent lower at 5.0021 dollars a gallon and RBOB gasoline 1.90 percent lower at 3.3287 dollars at the 20:32 GMT capture, both measured against Thursday’s settlements, while natural gas was little changed at 2.829 dollars a million British thermal units.

Metals steady after Thursday’s rout, agriculture gives back

Gold’s December contract was 0.34 percent lower at 4,392.30 dollars an ounce at the capture, against Thursday’s 4,407.30 dollar settlement, and silver was unchanged at 64.925 dollars after Thursday’s 6.44 percent fall on our snapshot basis; copper was unchanged at 6.5475 dollars a pound and palladium rose 1.68 percent to 1,316.50 dollars. The agricultural board reversed Thursday’s gains: sugar fell 3.10 percent to 18.15 cents a pound, soybeans 2.50 percent to 1,299.00 cents a bushel, cotton 2.30 percent to 86.19 cents a pound and wheat 2.02 percent to 726.25 cents a bushel, on the same basis.

What the CPI said about energy

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in August, with the energy index up 2.1 percent on the month and 16.3 percent on the year; gasoline rose 3.9 percent in the month, accounting for more than a third of the headline increase, and 27.4 percent over 12 months, while fuel oil rose 10.1 percent in the month and 52.0 percent on the year. The all items index rose 3.4 percent over 12 months, the same as in July, and the core index 2.4 percent. On our reading those August figures predate this week’s move above 100 dollars, which is a September story.

Levels captured after the settlement window at 20:32 GMT on 11 September 2026, ranked by change and measured against 10 September’s settlements as carried in the price feed. These are post settlement snapshot levels, not the official 11 September settlements; the Brent and WTI settlements reported by Reuters were 104.61 dollars (down 2.81 percent) and 100.05 dollars (down 2.37 percent). Contract months are as displayed by the vendor at capture.

Same 20:32 GMT capture and basis, ranked by change; levels captured after the settlement window, measured against 10 September’s settlements.

Same 20:32 GMT capture and basis, ranked by change. Coffee (Dec’26, 284.25 cents a pound, down 1.35 percent) and cocoa (Dec’26, 5,913.00 dollars a metric ton, down 0.82 percent) are omitted to keep the table lean.

Intraday quotes from the same 20:32 GMT capture, ranked by change; snapshot levels of continuously traded instruments, not settlements, except the VIX, which carries its final print of the session. Dollar/yen (153.67, down 0.49 percent) is omitted to keep the table lean.

Why it matters: On our reading the market priced a report of talks at about 3 dollars a barrel and looked past a pipeline shutdown, which says where positioning is: after a rise of more than 6 percent in a day, a headline that shortens the expected disruption to the strait is acted on faster than one that lengthens it. The IEA’s numbers explain why the floor is high even so. Observed inventories fell a further 95 million barrels in August, taking draws since February to 507 million barrels, or 2.8 million barrels a day, and total supply is now expected to fall 5.7 million barrels a day this year with the Gulf recovery deferred to 2027, on the agency’s report. On our calculation Brent’s 3.36 percent gain over the 2 sessions since Wednesday’s settlement is what remains of the week’s shock once Friday’s relief is netted out, and the refined product side did not follow crude down in proportion: ULSD fell 1.10 percent against Brent’s 2.69 percent on the same snapshot basis, keeping the distillate margin wide.

Outlook: The weekend is the risk window the analysts quoted by the wire named on Friday, and the first test is whether the reported meeting on the strait takes place and produces an arrangement that ships actually use; transits fell to 7 on Thursday from 11 a day earlier on the preliminary tracking data the same report cited. The next scheduled inputs are the Federal Reserve on 16 September and the Bank of Japan on 17 and 18 September, both meeting with crude above 100 dollars. On our reading the number to watch is the 107.63 dollar Brent settlement of Thursday: a close back above it would mean the talks premium has been fully removed.

Sources: Reuters, CNBC, International Energy Agency, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Edge.

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