Oil Flows Through the Strait Are 13.1 Million Barrels a Day Below Pre-War Levels and Stocks Have Absorbed the Difference
Flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 7.6 million barrels a day in August, 13.1 million barrels a day below where they were before the war, with cumulative export losses through the waterway approaching 2.8 billion barrels, according to the energy agency’s latest commentary. Only part of the gap has been closed by new supply, through bypass routes and higher output outside the Gulf. The rest of the adjustment has come through sharply weaker demand and exceptionally large inventory draws.
Observed oil stocks are now 507 million barrels lower than at the onset of the war, and agency member countries have released more than 300 million barrels of emergency stocks under the collective action announced on 11 March.
| Measure | Latest |
|---|---|
| Hormuz flows, August | 7.6 mb/d |
| Below pre-war level | 13.1 mb/d |
| Cumulative export losses | 2.8 bn barrels |
| Observed stock draw since onset | 507 mn barrels |
From the commentary of 18 September. Flows in million barrels a day.
The demand side did most of the adjusting
Global oil demand fell 5.3 million barrels a day year on year in the second quarter of 2026, the first quarterly decline since the pandemic. For the year as a whole demand is now expected to contract by 2.5 million barrels a day, with the Middle East and Asia accounting for 80 percent of the fall. That is why the balances look less alarming than the flow numbers: the agency puts the deficit at 2.2 million barrels a day in the second quarter and 1.7 million in the third, far smaller than the 13.1 million shortfall through the strait would imply on its own.
Rerouting worked, then ran into the Red Sea
Exports from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu and the United Arab Emirates’ Gulf of Oman port of Fujairah rose from 4.1 million barrels a day in February to a high of 7.8 million in June, an increase of 3.7 million on our calculation, before attacks in the Red Sea cut those flows back to 5.5 million in August. Both countries moved quickly to route barrels around the strait, and flows through the strait itself have begun to recover.
Outside the Gulf the response was smaller but real. Between February and August the agency records gains of 520,000 barrels a day from the United States, 470,000 from Brazil, 440,000 from Kazakhstan, 300,000 from Venezuela and 200,000 from Nigeria, which is 1.93 million barrels a day in total on our calculation.
| Producer | Gain, February to August |
|---|---|
| United States | +520 kb/d |
| Brazil | +470 kb/d |
| Kazakhstan | +440 kb/d |
| Venezuela | +300 kb/d |
| Nigeria | +200 kb/d |
Thousand barrels a day.
Why it matters: For the Gulf the important number is not the shortfall, it is the 507 million barrels. On our reading the market has been balanced by drawing down the buffer rather than by replacing the barrels, and a buffer can only be drawn once. The rerouting through Yanbu and Fujairah worked while it could, and the fall from 7.8 to 5.5 million barrels a day shows how narrow the alternative route is. The expected demand contraction of 2.5 million barrels a day for the year would do more work than every non-Gulf producer put together, which is a more fragile kind of balance than a supply response.
Outlook: The agency’s own warning is that inventory buffers are depleting. The producer group has published nothing since 6 September and its most recent public answer to the agency on Gulf reliability dates from 24 July, so there is no fresh counter-argument on the record.
Sources: International Energy Agency.
