FAO Food Price Index Eases 1.2% to 133.9 Points in October as Sugar Climbs 6.6%
The FAO Food Price Index slipped 1.2% to 133.9 points in October, as lower cereal, dairy and meat prices outweighed a sharp rise in sugar and slightly firmer vegetable oils.
For food importers the relief is partial. The index is still 5.9% above its level a year earlier, and in The Edge’s reading the pressure has moved inside the basket: cereals gave back all of September’s gain, while sugar and vegetable oils kept rising.
The index tracks international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, weighting five group indices by their average export shares over 2014 to 2016. October’s change is measured against a revised September: FAO first published that month at 136.0 points and now puts it at 135.6.
Cereals, dairy and meat take the index lower
The cereal index fell 4.5% to 116.8 points, back to its August level. World wheat prices declined after four consecutive monthly increases, the agency said, reflecting subdued international demand and better production prospects, particularly in Argentina.
Expectations of easier Black Sea export flows added to the pressure on wheat, although continued disruption to Black Sea logistics limited the decline. Maize eased too, weighed down by harvest pressure in the United States and expectations of ample South American supplies.
Rice went the other way. The All Rice Price Index rose 1.6%, which the release linked to harvest delays in some exporting countries on top of adverse weather and rising costs.
The dairy index fell 1.1% to 117.8 points, after a marginal decline in September. It now stands 16.9% below a year earlier. Butter and cheese prices fell on ample supplies and subdued buying interest, particularly in the European Union, while milk powder prices rose again.
The spread inside dairy is wide. Skim milk powder quotations were 45.8% higher than in October 2025. Butter was 31.1% lower and cheese 29.3% lower over the same period, while whole milk powder was broadly unchanged.
The meat index slipped 1.2% to 125.5 points, still slightly above its year-earlier level. Pig, ovine and bovine meat quotations declined, while poultry was broadly stable. Lower pig meat prices were led by the European Union, where abundant supplies and limited export opportunities weighed on the market.
The latest meat readings mix projected and observed prices, because most meat prices are not yet available when the index is computed. The agency notes that this can, at times, require significant revisions to the meat index, and through it to the headline.
October sub-indices against a revised September
| Index | Oct | Sep | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food Price Index | 133.9 | 135.6 | -1.2 |
| Cereals | 116.8 | 122.3 | -4.5 |
| Vegetable oils | 199.2 | 198.6 | +0.3 |
| Meat | 125.5 | 127.1 | -1.2 |
| Dairy | 117.8 | 119.1 | -1.1 |
| Sugar | 121.3 | 113.7 | +6.6 |
Index points, 2014 to 2016 = 100; September values are revised. Monthly changes are the percentages FAO published.
Sugar rises for a fourth month as vegetable oils edge higher
The sugar index rose 6.6% to 121.3 points, its fourth consecutive monthly increase. It now stands 28.8% above a year earlier. Since June, when it stood at 90.0 points, it has gained 34.8%.
The rise came mainly from rain disrupting cane harvesting and crushing in Brazil’s key Centre-South region, the release said. Concerns over India’s sugar output after a below-normal and uneven monsoon added to it, as did forecasts of lower production in the European Union and Thailand in the 2026/27 season.
The vegetable oil index edged up 0.3% to 199.2 points, the highest level of the five groups. It is 17.6% above a year earlier. Higher soybean and sunflower oil quotations more than offset lower rapeseed oil, while palm oil was virtually unchanged.
Soybean oil rose, supported by firm demand from the biofuel sector and seasonally declining supplies from South America. Sunflower oil rebounded from multi-month lows on tight Black Sea export availability. Rapeseed oil fell on rising seasonal supplies and weaker than expected demand for biodiesel feedstocks, particularly in the European Union.
The index sits 16.4% below its 2022 peak, with the gap in three groups
The headline remains 26.3 points below its March 2022 peak. That gap is not spread evenly across the basket.
Cereals stand 31.3% below their level in the peak month, and dairy 21.3% below. Vegetable oils are 20.9% below theirs. Meat and sugar, by contrast, are now above their peak-month levels, by 5.2% and 2.9%.
Over the first ten months of 2026, the index averaged 130.6 points. That is 2.3% above the average for the same months of 2025. October’s reading is 7.9% above January, when the index stood at 124.1 points.
Sub-indices against the March 2022 peak month
| Index | Mar 2022 | Oct 2026 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food Price Index | 160.2 | 133.9 | -16.4 |
| Cereals | 170.1 | 116.8 | -31.3 |
| Vegetable oils | 251.8 | 199.2 | -20.9 |
| Meat | 119.3 | 125.5 | +5.2 |
| Dairy | 149.6 | 117.8 | -21.3 |
| Sugar | 117.9 | 121.3 | +2.9 |
Index points, 2014 to 2016 = 100, from the published monthly series; changes are computed on the published levels.
Cereal output forecast is raised as trade is set to shrink
In its Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, released the same day, FAO forecast world cereal production at 2,999 million tonnes in 2026. That is below the 2025 record but still the second highest level on record, and 20 million tonnes above the forecast in its October brief.
Production is expected to fall across all major cereals, most markedly for wheat. Rice output is set to contract for the first time in four seasons, falling 2.5% to 552.0 million tonnes, which the brief links to poor producer margins and El Niño weather.
Rice use is forecast at 558.8 million tonnes, 6.8 million tonnes more than the expected harvest. Total cereal utilization in 2026/27 is forecast at 2,971 million tonnes, up 0.2%, with food use of wheat and rice growing slightly below the pace of world population growth.
Stocks are set to build despite the smaller crop. Global cereal stocks are forecast to rise 17.2 million tonnes by the close of seasons in 2027, led by wheat in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where export disruptions are accumulating supplies. The stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 32.4%, up from 31.7% in the October brief.
Trade is where the strain shows. World cereal trade in 2026/27 is forecast to shrink 3.3% to 507.7 million tonnes, which is above the October brief’s forecast. Wheat trade, down 8.6%, is the main driver, with shipments from all major exporters declining amid supply or logistical constraints.
Maize trade goes the other way, forecast to rise 2.2% on large exportable supplies in Argentina. Rice trade is set to recover 2.9% in 2027 to 61.6 million tonnes, on firmer import demand and larger shipments from India and Pakistan. A separate report from the agency, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, keeps the number of countries and territories requiring external food assistance unchanged at 41, of which 31 are in Africa.
What to watch: the biannual Food Outlook on 12 November; the November food price index and the next Cereal Supply and Demand Brief on 4 December.
Figures are from the FAO Food Price Index release, its monthly data series, the Cereal Supply and Demand Brief and the Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, all dated 6 November 2026, and the FAO release of 2 October 2026; percentages and comparisons not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.
Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The Edge.
