OECD Puts Saudi Arabia’s Second Quarter Contraction at 4.8 Percent, Steepest Among G20 Economies With Data
Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted 4.8 percent in the second quarter against the first, after a 1.4 percent contraction in the first quarter, and the OECD attributes the fall mainly to a sharp decrease in oil activities. The organisation published its G20 quarterly national accounts on Monday. G20 output as a whole grew 0.7 percent in the quarter, down from 0.8 percent.
This is the first time a multilateral body has quantified the Saudi contraction on a basis comparable across the G20 economies for which second quarter data were available, and on that basis nothing else in the group is close.
The G20 slowed slightly and Saudi Arabia fell off the bottom
| Quarterly GDP growth | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| India | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| Mexico | -0.3% | 1.4% |
| Türkiye | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| China | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Canada | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| G20 total | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Korea | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Brazil | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Indonesia | 1.3% | |
| Japan, United Kingdom, United States | 0.4% each | |
| Australia | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Germany | 0.3% | |
| Italy | 0.2% | |
| France | -0.2% | 0.0% |
| South Africa | 0.4% | -0.2% |
| Saudi Arabia | -1.4% | -4.8% |
Quarter on quarter growth as published by the OECD, for G20 economies with available data. Blank cells are quarters the release does not give a first quarter comparison for.
Among the G20 economies with data available in the release, Saudi Arabia and South Africa were the two that contracted. South Africa fell two tenths of a percent. Saudi Arabia fell 4.8 percent, which is twenty four times the South African fall on our calculation, and it did so having already contracted in the first quarter. Across the two quarters together the Saudi economy is 6.1 percent smaller on our calculation.
The OECD names the cause in one clause: the fall mainly reflected a sharp decrease in oil activities. A footnote to the release defines oil activities as the extraction of crude oil and natural gas and refining activities. The organisation gives a cause for one other member in the same paragraph, Korea, whose slowdown from 1.8 percent to 0.6 it attributes primarily to weaker growth in exports and private consumption.
On the year the gap is just as wide
| Annual GDP growth, Q2 2026 | |
|---|---|
| India | 8.1% |
| Indonesia | 5.3% |
| China | 4.3% |
| G20 total | 3.1% |
| Saudi Arabia | -4.3% |
Year on year growth as published, for G20 economies with available data. The members not shown sit between China and Saudi Arabia.
The G20 grew 3.1 percent on the year. Saudi Arabia is 7.4 percentage points below that on our calculation, and it is the only member covered by the release with a negative annual rate.
Why it matters: we have been reporting the Saudi oil shock through Saudi sources for three weeks, most recently the 8.1 percent fall in industrial output on 11 September in which oil was 99 percent of the decline. This is the first reading of it from outside the Kingdom, on a basis directly comparable across the G20 economies the release covers, and it is the largest contraction among them by a wide margin. The Saudi Central Bank’s own panel carries minus 4.7 percent on the year for the quarter, against the OECD’s minus 4.3, so the two are close enough that neither is an outlier. What the OECD adds is the comparison: this is not a global slowdown reaching Saudi Arabia, because the G20 still grew 0.7 percent in the same quarter. It is a Saudi specific oil contraction.
Outlook: the OECD publishes its next G20 quarterly national accounts on 14 December, covering the third quarter, and the organisation excludes pre-release access to these figures. The number to watch before then is whether the oil activities line stops falling, since the non oil economy has so far been the part holding the aggregate up and a second consecutive quarter at this depth would start to pull it down. The OECD’s September Interim Economic Outlook, dated 23 September, is the nearer date and may carry a revised full year forecast for the Kingdom.
Sources: OECD, Saudi Central Bank, General Authority for Statistics.
