OPEC Chief Rejects IEA’s Oil-Glut Forecast as “Premature” in Rare Public Clash Over the Market’s Direction
OPEC and the International Energy Agency have collided publicly over the direction of the oil market, with OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais dismissing the IEA’s forecast of a looming supply glut as premature and not grounded in “facts and figures,” in an unusually open disagreement between the two most influential voices in global energy.
Speaking to CNBC on 18 June 2026, Al Ghais took direct aim at the IEA’s latest outlook. “Sometimes it’s best not to make such assumptions when they are not really based on facts and figures,” he said, adding pointedly: “What does the IEA see that OPEC and the rest don’t see?” He argued that OPEC focuses “on fundamentals and not putting many ifs and buts in our forecasts,” and called the IEA’s surplus call premature given the number of moving parts in the post-conflict market.
The forecast at the heart of the dispute
The clash centres on the IEA’s June Oil Market Report. On the demand side, the agency expects global oil consumption to fall by 1.1 mb/d in 2026 before recovering by about 2 mb/d in 2027. On the supply side, it projected output falling by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 102.4 mb/d in 2026, before rebounding by about 8 mb/d to 110.3 mb/d in 2027 as disrupted Gulf production returns following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. With supply set to rise far faster than demand in 2027, the implication is a sizeable surplus building next year. It is that “shortage to glut” narrative that Al Ghais is contesting.
OPEC has long been more bullish on oil’s long-term role than the IEA. Only a day earlier, OPEC’s own World Oil Outlook projected oil demand rising to 124.1 mb/d by 2050 with “no peak in oil demand on the horizon,” and called for US$17.7 trillion of investment to meet it — a worldview fundamentally at odds with the more transition-focused, surplus-leaning scenarios the IEA has published.
A reopening Strait of Hormuz
The backdrop to the dispute is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the US–Iran agreement, which is allowing Gulf barrels to flow again. The IEA has tracked throughput through the strait recovering from a May low of around 9.6 mb/d toward roughly 12 mb/d in early June. The speed and durability of that recovery is precisely the uncertainty Al Ghais cited in arguing that it is too early to declare a surplus.
On the same day, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol pressed for the “immediate and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” calling it the single most important step to calm energy markets and warning that trust had been damaged — “the vase is broken.” The two agencies thus agree on the importance of Hormuz, even as they disagree sharply on what the return of supply means for the balance of the market.
Why it matters
The OPEC–IEA disagreement is more than an institutional spat: the two organisations’ forecasts shape investment decisions, government planning and market sentiment worldwide. When they diverge so openly, it signals genuine uncertainty about the post-conflict trajectory of supply, demand and prices — and leaves producers, consumers and investors to navigate conflicting signals.
For Gulf producers, the stakes are direct. If the IEA’s surplus view proves right, softer prices would pressure the hydrocarbon revenues that underpin regional budgets, reinforcing the case for fiscal discipline. If OPEC’s more cautious reading holds and the recovery in supply is slower or demand stronger than the IEA expects, the market could stay tighter for longer. The reality will hinge on how quickly Gulf exports normalise and how resilient global demand proves.
Outlook
The debate is unlikely to be settled soon. Much depends on the pace at which disrupted Gulf production and shipping return to normal, on the strength of demand in Asia and beyond, and on whether other producers add barrels. For now, the rare public clash underscores how unusually uncertain the oil market has become in the aftermath of the conflict — and how differently the world’s two leading energy authorities read the road ahead.
Sources: CNBC; International Energy Agency (Oil Market Report, June 2026); OPEC.
