US diesel futures reach a 52 month high as diesel’s margin over crude runs at 2.68 times gasoline’s

By The Edge Research Team

United States diesel futures reached their highest level in 52 months on Tuesday 1 September 2026 after rising about 51 percent over 10 weeks, Reuters reported, and the diesel crack spread set a record of around 107 dollars a barrel on the same day, on LSEG data cited by that wire.

Our own calculation from the exchange settlements puts the scale of the dislocation in one number. On 2 September, ultra low sulphur diesel for October delivery settled at 4.6822 dollars a gallon, October gasoline at 3.1038 and October West Texas Intermediate at 91.01 dollars a barrel. Converted at 42 gallons a barrel, that is a diesel margin over crude of 105.64 dollars against 39.35 for gasoline, on our calculation, so the simple diesel margin ran at 2.68 times the corresponding gasoline margin. Both are product value less crude value and neither accounts for refinery yields, configuration or operating costs. The 2 September figure sits just below the record set the day before.

One caution on that ratio, since it is the headline number. The difference between the two margins, 66.29 dollars a barrel on our calculation, is fixed by the two product prices and is unaffected by the crude price. The ratio is not: hold both products still and the same arithmetic gives 2.32 at a crude price of 80 dollars and 3.18 at 100. The ratio is the sharper illustration, and it moves with crude as well as with the products.

The claim also needs confining to the United States futures market where it is computed. In Europe, gasoline is close to a record of its own, with Eurobob barges quoted about 62.07 dollars a barrel over Brent on 2 September against a record of 62.10 set in June 2022, so this is not a case of diesel strength against gasoline weakness everywhere.

The four year framing needs a date attached to it

Two dates are doing the work, and they are not the same day.

The futures series is the one the wire describes, and its 52 month high was set on 1 September. Fifty two months takes the comparison back to May 2022, on our calculation. No approved source publishes the exact prior date on which the front month last traded above that level, so the reference stands as the wire states it and no further. That series did not turn afterwards: the October contract settled 0.105 percent higher again on 2 September, on our calculation from the two settlements.

The retail series is the one where a four year comparison is exact, and it has already come off. The Energy Information Administration’s national on highway average reached 5.652 dollars a gallon in the week to 24 August, the highest since the week to 4 July 2022, a span of about 4 years and 2 months on our calculation. In the week to 31 August it fell 5.3 cents to 5.599 dollars, which leaves it below its own April and May peaks of 5.643 and 5.640 dollars.

A third series falls short of four years altogether. New York Harbour ultra low sulphur diesel spot reached 4.724 dollars a gallon on 1 September, the highest since 10 November 2022, which is a little under 3 years and 10 months on our calculation.

US refineries have very little throughput slack left

Refinery utilisation reached 98.0 percent in the week to 28 August, up 0.6 percentage points and the highest since August 2018. At that level there is very little aggregate room to lift crude throughput by running existing capacity harder. Refiners can still shift product yields toward distillate, and imports and returning outages can add supply, but an unusually high utilisation rate limits the conventional domestic response to an exceptionally strong margin, which is part of why the margin has widened rather than been competed away.

Inventories complicate the picture rather than confirming it. Distillate stocks rose 796,000 barrels in that week, against expectations of a draw. The price high came on 1 September, three days after the survey week closed and a day before the report was published, so the build and the high are not the same moment; but a multi year high arriving on the heels of a stock build is not a picture of American scarcity.

The level is where the tightness shows. Against the average of the same August week across the five preceding years, 120.999 million barrels on our calculation from the same weekly series, current stocks are 16.8 million barrels or 13.9 percent lower. East Coast distillate stocks fell to a record low in the same week, the wire reports.

Domestic demand is not what is drawing the barrels. Distillate product supplied fell 11.7 percent on the week, on our calculation, while exports ran 29.4 percent above a year earlier, also ours. The barrels are leaving.

What the sources attribute the move to

Two strands, both from approved reporting.

The first is refining capacity. Reuters cites disruption at refineries around the world, particularly in the Middle East and in Russia. Goldman Sachs analysts, in a note carried by that wire, describe strikes on refineries in those regions as having “further constrained already stretched global refining capacity, pushing refined products margins to new highs.” Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy points to European importers competing for barrels with buyers who previously took Russian supply and have had to source elsewhere since Moscow’s fuel export restrictions.

The second is the movement of crude itself. The wire attributes the settlement gains of 1 September to renewed hostilities in the Gulf region and to concern over flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which it reports as effectively closed to shipping. Diesel is therefore carrying a crude shock and a refining shock at once, and only the second of the two is specific to the product.

The disruption is not confined to one region’s product. European diesel set its own record at 78.91 dollars a barrel over Brent on 1 September, easing to about 77 dollars the following afternoon.

The forward curve disagrees with the spot market

The market is not pricing this as permanent. Diesel settlements fall through the curve from October to January, a decline of 11.3 percent across four months on our calculation, and a curve that steep says traders expect the constraint to ease.

Our own board tracked the run into the high. This series published ultra low sulphur diesel up 1.52 percent on 28 August, 3.32 percent on 31 August and 6.59 percent on 1 September. Those figures show how sharply the market accelerated into September, but they should not be compounded into a single three session return: the contract rolled from September to October delivery between the 31 August and 1 September editions, and the three changes are not all measured on the same basis.

Exchange settlements for trade date 2 September 2026, all for October delivery. The unit column is carried because two of the three rows are priced per gallon and one per barrel. Converting the products at 42 gallons a barrel gives margins over crude of 105.64 dollars for diesel and 39.35 for gasoline, both on our calculation and both measured against the crude settlement of the same delivery month. These are simple product value less crude value calculations, not a defined refinery configuration such as a 3 2 1 crack.

Exchange settlements for trade date 2 September 2026, in dollars a gallon. The percentage column is ours, each month measured against the October front month.

From the Weekly Petroleum Status Report released 2 September 2026, with changes on the preceding week. Levels and changes are published; the comparison against the five year average quoted above is ours, computed from the same weekly series, as are the percentage changes in product supplied and in exports against a year earlier.

Why it matters: Diesel is the fuel of American freight, agriculture and construction, so a record refining margin is a cost that travels through the economy rather than sitting in one market. The pump has already carried it: at 5.599 dollars a gallon the national average is 1.528 dollars above gasoline and 1.865 dollars above a year ago, the first of those on our calculation. Because the binding constraint is refining capacity rather than crude supply, additional crude alone does not resolve it, and a 98.0 percent utilisation rate leaves very little domestic throughput headroom. The offsetting fact for consumers is that the retail series has already come off its 24 August peak even as the futures market has not.

Outlook: The next weekly retail print is due 9 September and the next status report on 10 September, both shifted by the holiday. The forward curve implies relief within four months, which makes the November and December contracts the honest test of whether the disruption is being priced as temporary. Watch East Coast distillate stocks, at a record low on the latest reading, and watch whether the crack narrows on its own or only when refining capacity returns.

Sources: United States Energy Information Administration, CME Group, Reuters, LSEG, The Edge.

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